Regime shifts in the marine environment: the scientific basis and political context

Regime shifts in the marine environment have recently received much attention. To date, however, few large-scale meta-analyses have been carried out due to insufficient data coverage and integration between sustained observational datasets because of diverse methodologies used in data collection, recording and archival. Here we review the available data on regime shifts globally, followed by a review of current and planned policies with relevance to regime shifts.We then focus on the North and Baltic Seas, providing examples of existing efforts for data integration in the MarBEF Network of Excellence. Existing gaps in data coverage are identified, and the added value from meta-analyses of multiple datasets demonstrated using examples from the MarBEF integrated data project LargeNet. We discuss whether these efforts are addressing current policy needs and close with recommendations for future integrated data networks to increase our ability to understand, identify and predict recent and future regime shifts.     

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for 10,000 to 50,000 “years” of artificial weather. The fire growth simulations, when run repeatedly with different weather and ignition locations, produce burn probabilities and fire behavior distributions at each landscape location (e.g., number of times a “cell” burns at a given intensity divided by the total years). The artificial weather was generated for each land unit using (1) a fire danger rating index known as the Energy Release Component (ERC) which is a proxy for fuel moisture contents, (2) a time-series analysis of ERC to represent daily and seasonal variability, and (3) distributions of wind speed and direction from weather records. Large fire occurrence was stochastically modeled based on historical relationships to ERC. The simulations also required spatial data on fuel structure and topography which were acquired from the LANDFIRE project (). Fire suppression effects were represented by a statistical model that yields a probability of fire containment based on independent predictors of fire growth rates and fuel type. The simulated burn probabilities were comparable to observed patterns across the U.S. over the range of four orders of magnitude, generally falling within a factor of 3 or 4 of historical estimates. Close agreement between simulated and historical fire size distributions suggest that fire sizes are determined by the joint distributions of spatial opportunities for fire growth (dependent on fuels and ignition location) and the temporal opportunities produced by conducive weather sequences. The research demonstrates a practical approach to using fire simulations at very broad scales for purposes of operational planning and perhaps ecological research.     

Granular Controls on Periodicity of Stick-Slip Events: Kinematics and Force-Chains in an Experimental Fault

It is a long-standing question whether granular fault material such as gouge plays a major role in controlling fault dynamics such as seismicity and slip-periodicity. In both natural and experimental faults, granular materials resist shear and accommodate strain via interparticle friction, fracture toughness, fluid pressure, dilation, and interparticle rearrangements. Here, we isolate the effects of particle rearrangements on granular deformation through laboratory experiments. Within a sheared photoelastic granular aggregate at constant volume, we simultaneously visualize both particle-scale kinematics and interparticle forces, the latter taking the form of force-chains. We observe stick-slip deformation and associated force drops during an overall strengthening of the shear zone. This strengthening regime provides insight into granular rheology and conditions of stick-slip periodicity, and may be qualitatively analogous to slip that accompanies longer term interseismic strengthening of natural faults. Of particular note is the observation that increasing the packing density increases the stiffness of the granular aggregate and decreases the damping (increases time-scales) during slip events. At relatively loose packing density, the slip displacements during the events follow an approximately power-law distribution, as opposed to an exponential distribution at higher packing density. The system exhibits switching between quasi-periodic and aperiodic slip behavior at all packing densities. Higher packing densities favor quasi-periodic behavior, with a longer time interval between aperiodic events than between quasi-periodic events. This difference in the time-scale of aperiodic stick-slip deformation is reflected in both the kinematics of interparticle slip and the force-chain dynamics: all major force-chain reorganizations are associated with aperiodic events. Our experiments conceptually link observations of natural fault dynamics with current models for granular stick-slip dynamics. We find that the stick-slip dynamics are consistent with a driven harmonic oscillator model with damping provided by an effective viscosity, and that shear-transformation-zone, jamming, and crackling noise theories provide insight into the effective stiffness and patterns of shear localization during deformation.     

Spatial distribution and general population characteristics of mysid shrimps in the Westerschelde estuary (SW Netherlands)

The distribution and general population characteristics of five mysid shrimps were investigated in the period 2003–2005 in the Westerschelde estuary, a tidal temperate estuary situated along the Dutch–Belgian border. Multivariate analyses revealed that salinity predominantly governs the spatial distribution of Neomysis integer, Gastrosaccus spinifer, Schistomysis kervillei and Schistomysis spiritus while temperature, and to a lesser extent turbidity, control the distribution of Mesopodopsis slabberi. N. integer is a resident species in the mesohaline zone of the estuary, i.e. all life stages of the species are present in the estuary throughout the year. For the first time since decades N. integer inhabits the oligohaline zone of the estuary supposedly as a consequence of improved oxygen conditions in the upstream reaches. M. slabberi, the most abundant mysid in the Westerschelde, dominates the hyperbenthos of the mesohaline zone of the estuary. The polyhaline zone of the estuary is, most abundantly inhabited by M. slabberi, G. spinifer, S. kervillei and to a lesser extent by S. spiritus. The abundance of the latter four species is low in winter, probably due to a migration towards coastal waters to avoid colder temperatures in the estuary combined with an increased mortality after breeding. The sex ratio of all the mysid populations corresponds to the expected 1:1 female:male ratio and no salinity governed segregation is found between the different life stages of each mysid population. A seasonal variation exists in brood size in the N. integer population regardless of the body size, with a larger number of broods during winter and spring compared to the summer. In the other mysid populations the brood sizes vary only with the length of the ovigerous females.     

Developing a long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef,Australia: A framework for adaptive management reporting underpinning an ecosystem-based management approach

The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009 was the first produced in response to a newly legislated requirement for five-yearly reports on the status of and outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. It adopted an ecosystem approach, assessing all habitats and species, ecosystem processes and major uses. By then considering the factors affecting the ecosystem, coupled with an assessment of management effectiveness, it provided a risk-based forward-looking projection for the ecosystem. Rarely has such a comprehensive, ecosystem-based report been produced to guide government action. With no pre-determined path to follow for interpreting the legislative requirements, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) developed a repeatable structure and method for Great Barrier Reef Outlook Reports that impartially and consistently considers the evidence and clearly presents the findings. The GBRMPA worked closely with relevant Australian and Queensland Government agencies as well as researchers, industry representatives and the community while developing the report. That such a report must be produced every five years allows an overview of the effectiveness of management responses to be regularly assessed. It also provides a transparent means of highlighting and tracking emerging risks facing the Great Barrier Reef.     

Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings

This paper offers a critical review of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts in integrated assessment have concentrated on developing baseline trajectories of emissions and mitigation scenario analyses. A key missing component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is the representation of climate impacts and adaptation responses. In this paper, we identify key biases that are introduced when climate impacts and adaptation responses are omitted from the analysis and review the state of modeling studies that attempt to capture these feedbacks. A common problem in these IAM studies is the lack of connection with empirical studies. We therefore also review the state of the empirical work on climate impacts and identify ways that this connection could be improved.     

Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries

Future physical and chemical changes to the ocean are likely to significantly affect the distribution and productivity of many marine species. Tuna are of particular importance in the tropical Pacific, as they contribute significantly to the livelihoods, food and economic security of island states. Changes in water properties and circulation will impact on tuna larval dispersal, preferred habitat distributions and the trophic systems that support tuna populations throughout the region. Using recent observations and ocean projections from the CMIP3 and preliminary results from CMIP5 climate models, we document the projected changes to ocean temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation most relevant to distributions of tuna. Under a business-as-usual emission scenario, projections indicate a surface intensified warming in the upper 400 m and a large expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool, with most surface waters of the central and western equatorial Pacific reaching temperatures warmer than 29 °C by 2100. These changes are likely to alter the preferred habitat of tuna, based on present-day thermal tolerances, and in turn the distribution of spawning and foraging grounds. Large-scale shoaling of the mixed layer and increases in stratification are expected to impact nutrient provision to the biologically active layer, with flow-on trophic effects on the micronekton. Several oceanic currents are projected to change, including a strengthened upper equatorial undercurrent, which could modify the supply of bioavailable iron to the eastern Pacific.     

The Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation gyres

This paper reports on the strength and structure of the Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation gyres. In the time average, quasi-permanent recirculation gyres are found to the north and south of the Kuroshio Extension jet. The characteristics of these recirculations gyres are determined from the combined observations from the Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS) field program (June 2004–June 2006) and include current meters, pressure and current recording inverted echo sounders, and subsurface floats. The position and strength of the recirculation gyres simulated by a high-resolution numerical model are found to be consistent with the observations. The circulation pattern that is revealed is of a complex system of multiple recirculation gyres that are embedded in the crests and troughs of the quasi-permanent meanders of the Kuroshio Extension. At the location of the KESS array, the Kuroshio Extension jet and its recirculation gyres transport of about 114 Sv. This represents a 2.7-fold increase in the transport of the current compared to the Kuroshio's transport at Cape Ashizuri before it separates from the coast and flows eastward into the open ocean. This enhancement in the current's transport comes from the development of the flanking recirculation gyres. Estimates from an array of inverted echo sounders and a high-resolution ocean general circulation model are of similar magnitude.