Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.     

Exchange of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Between a Shallow Lagoon and Coastal Waters

West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow lagoon on Cape Cod, has experienced a threefold increase in nitrogen load since the mid- to late 1990s due to input from a groundwater plume contaminated by a municipal wastewater treatment plant. We measured the exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between the harbor and the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay over several years when the harbor was experiencing this elevated nitrogen load. During summer months, the harbor not only retained the entire watershed nitrogen load but also had a net import of nitrogen from Buzzards Bay. During the spring and fall, the harbor had a net export of nitrogen to Buzzards Bay. We did not measure the export in winter, but assuming the winter net export was less than 112 % of the load, the harbor exported less than half of the watershed nitrogen load on an annual basis. For phosphorus, the harbor had a net import from coastal waters in the spring and summer months and a net export in the fall. Despite the large increase in nitrogen load to the harbor, the summertime import of phosphorus from Buzzards Bay was sufficient to maintain nitrogen limitation of primary productivity during the summer. Our findings illustrate that shallow systems dominated by benthic producers have the potential to retain large terrestrial nitrogen loads when there is sufficient supply of phosphorus from exchange with coastal waters.     

Interdisciplinary and participatory approaches: the key to effective groundwater management

The challenges of a changing world, which are progressively threatening sustainable use of groundwater resources, can only be rationally and effectively addressed through close collaboration between experts and practitioners from different disciplines. Furthermore, science and management need to build on stakeholder opinions and processes in order to generate useful knowledge and positive outcomes in terms of sustainable and equitable groundwater management. This essay provides a discussion of the status of and vision for participatory and inter-disciplinary approaches to groundwater evaluation and management as well as a conceptual framework and relevant research questions that will facilitate such approaches.     

National forest carbon inventories: policy needs and assessment capacity

Previous research has identified the importance of the role of land cover in the global carbon cycle. In particular, forests have been identified as a significant carbon sink that can mitigate the rate of global climate change. Policy makers are faced with complex and difficult challenges in getting timely and useful information in monitoring global forest resources. Recent advances in the tools and methods of forest carbon accounting have produced new, innovative approaches to forest-based carbon inventories. But it is important as new tools are developed that scientists understand the needs of policy makers and that policy makers understand the capabilities and limitations of forest inventory methods. This paper explores four different policy applications that rely, or could benefit from, national carbon inventories. The goal is to help build a bridge between the communities of climate policy makers and scientists specialized in forest carbon inventories. To this end, we pursue three specific objectives: First we provide an overview for policy makers about approaches to forest carbon inventories, paying particular attention to the contributions of remote sensing technologies. Second, we outline the issues particularly relevant to forest inventory scientists who are interested in responding to public policy needs. We then discuss the tradeoffs between information cost, accuracy, precision, transparency and timeliness that need to be balanced in long-term monitoring of forest carbon. Finally, the article concludes with a series of observations and recommendations for the implementation of forest carbon inventories as increasingly central components of global climate change policy.     

Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization

We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today—but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners.     

Dissolution of jarosite [KFe3(SO4)2(OH)6] at pH 2 and 8: Insights from batch experiments and computational modelling

Jarosite [KFe₃(SO₄)₂(OH)₆] is a mineral that is common in acidic, sulphate-rich environments, such as acid sulphate soils derived from pyrite-bearing sediments, weathering zones of sulphide ore deposits and acid mine or acid rock drainage (ARD/AMD) sites. The structure of jarosite is based on linear tetrahedral-octahedral-tetrahedral (T-O-T) sheets, made up from slightly distorted FeO₆ octahedra and SO₄ tetrahedra. Batch dissolution experiments carried out on synthetic jarosite at pH 2, to mimic environments affected by ARD/AMD, and at pH 8, to simulate ARD/AMD environments recently remediated with slaked lime (Ca(OH)₂), suggest first order dissolution kinetics. Both dissolution reactions are incongruent, as revealed by non-ideal dissolution of the parent solids and, in the case of the pH 8 dissolution, because a secondary goethite precipitate forms on the surface of the dissolving jarosite grains. The pH 2 dissolution yields only aqueous K, Fe, and SO₄. Aqueous, residual solid, and computational modelling of the jarosite structure and surfaces using the GULP and MARVIN codes, respectively, show for the first time that there is selective dissolution of the A- and T-sites, which contain K and SO₄, respectively, relative to Fe, which is located deep within the T-O-T jarosite structure. These results have implications for the chemistry of ARD/AMD waters, and for understanding reaction pathways of ARD/AMD mineral dissolution.     

The petrogenesis of the Lac Guyer komatiites and basalts and the nature of the komatiite-komatiitic basalt compositional gap

A sequence of ultramafic rocks in the Lac Guyer Archean greenstone belt exhibit brecciated flow tops, pillow structures, and spinifex textures testifying to their volcanic origin. Massive, spinifex-textured and differentiated flows in the sequence have the chemical characteristics of peridotitic komatiite, with MgO ranging from 19–25 wt.%. Associated pillowed flows have compositions that straddle the conventional boundary between komatiite and komatiitic basalt with MgO contents ranging from 16 to 19 wt.% MgO and are best termed pyroxenitic komatiites. Unlike other komatiitic occurrences, the peridotitic and pyroxenitic komatiites at Lac Guyer constitute a continuous chemical spectrum with no evidence of population minimum near 18 wt.% MgO. The contrasting behaviour of highly compatible elements, such as Ni and Cr, versus incompatible elements, such as Zr, indicate that this compositional spectrum was produced by a variation in the extent of partial melting (10–40%) of a garnet lherzolite source in the Archean mantle. The pyroxenitic komatiites represent liquids produced during lower (10–20%) degrees of melting during which garnet remained in the mantle residue. However, a change in slope in the distribution of Zr vs. Y between the pyroxenitic and the peridotitic komatiites indicates that garnet was completely consumed at the more extensive degrees of melting which produced the peridotitic komatiites. The Lac Guyer volcanic rocks display a population minimum at 15 wt.% MgO separating komatiitic magmas whose compositions are controlled by partial melting from basalts whose composition is controlled by crystal fractionation. The population minimum near 18 wt.% MgO which is taken as the boundary between komatiite and komatiitic basalt may have a similar origin.     

Iron isotope variations in Holocene sediments of the Gotland Deep, Baltic Sea

Holocene sediments from the Gotland Deep basin in the Baltic Sea were investigated for their Fe isotopic composition in order to assess the impact of changes in redox conditions and a transition from freshwater to brackish water on the isotope signature of iron. The sediments display variations in δ⁵⁶Fe (differences in the ⁵⁶Fe/⁵⁴Fe ratio relative to the IRMM-14 standard) from −0.27 ± 0.09‰ to +0.21 ± 0.08‰. Samples deposited in a mainly limnic environment with oxygenated bottom water have a mean δ⁵⁶Fe of +0.08 ± 0.13‰, which is identical to the mean Fe isotopic composition of igneous rocks and oxic marine sediments. In contrast, sediments that formed in brackish water under periodically euxinic conditions display significantly lighter Fe isotope signatures with a mean δ⁵⁶Fe of −0.14 ± 0.19‰. Negative correlations of the δ⁵⁶Fe values with the Fe/Al ratio and S content of the samples suggest that the isotopically light Fe in the periodically euxinic samples is associated with reactive Fe enrichments and sulfides. This is supported by analyses of pyrite separates from this unit that have a mean Fe isotopic composition of −1.06 ± 0.20‰ for δ⁵⁶Fe. The supply of additional Fe with a light Fe isotopic signature can be explained with the shelf to basin Fe shuttle model. According to the Fe shuttle model, oxides and benthic ferrous Fe that is derived from dissimilatory iron reduction from shelves is transported and accumulated in euxinic basins. The data furthermore suggest that the euxinic water has a negative dissolved δ⁵⁶Fe value of about −1.4‰ to −0.9‰. If negative Fe isotopic signatures are characteristic for euxinic sediment formation, widespread euxinia in the past might have shifted the Fe isotopic composition of dissolved Fe in the ocean towards more positive δ⁵⁶Fe values.     

北大西洋北部中全新世以来古海洋环境记录

利用主成分分析法对冰岛北部陆架 MD99-2275 孔中全新世以来沉积物硅藻数据进行研究发现,5 000 - 3 000 a B.P.,冰岛北部陆架表层古海水温度逐渐上升,来自印明格暖流的北大西洋暖水对该区域的影响有所增强.自 3 000 a B.P.以来,表层海水温度开始稳步下降,北大西洋暖水水团的影响逐步减弱,而来自东格陵兰寒流和东冰岛海流的极地冷水水团的影响显著加强.在晚全新世气候逐渐变冷的过程中,发生了几次短期而显著的气候变冷事件,分别出现在 3 000 - 2 600 a B.P.,1 300 - 1 000 a B.P.及 600- 200 a B.P..该中晚全新世古海洋环境记录与格陵兰冰芯(GSIP2)氧同位素气候记录存在良好的对应关系,也与冰岛北部陆架其他海水温度记录有较好的一致性.而冰岛北部陆架区域海底地形的复杂性和海流分布的差异性,以及所采用研究方法的不同则导致该区域各古海水温度记录之间也存在一定的差异性.