2009年7月8-9日泰安市暴雨成因分析

2009年7月8-9日发生在泰安的暴雨天气过程主要是在副高西进北抬、副高边缘西南暖湿气流与高空低槽东移南压相结合的大尺度环流下,由黄河北部的低层中尺度切变线和鲁中地区的小低涡以及低空西南急流共同作用造成的.低空西南急流为大暴雨的产生输送了充足的水汽,低涡加大了辐合上升运动和水汽辐合.850 hPa低空大气散度辐合中心正处于泰安,垂直速度强上升区也在鲁中地区,为暴雨产生提供了足够的动力条件,低层850 hPa假相当位温θse＞75 ℃的高能舌为这次暴雨提供了不稳定能量.     

张掖市水资源实物型投入产出表的编制应用

实物型投入产出模型更适合用于核算与量化分析经济系统与资源环境间直接及间接的耦合关联。采用Helga Weisz的方法,通过价值型向实物型表转换,编制完成张掖市实物型投入产出表。基于实物型投入产出模型,对张掖市各部门水资源利用在社会经济系统中迁移特点和部门关联程度及乘数进行分析。结果表明：实物表为我们提供了新的分析视角,此方法的应用在资源环境领域的应用具有相当的适用价值。间接需求对水资源影响不容忽视,每个部门的乘数作用很大程度影响该部门在虚拟水战略中的地位和作用。畜牧业、制造业、建筑业在张掖市水资源利用部门关联中作用突出,应作为水资源的社会化管理重点关注的部门。     

北斗卫星导航系统双差动力法精密定轨及其精度分析

针对GEO卫星切向轨道分量与双差模糊度强相关的问题,对经典双差动力法进行了改进,提出联合使用载波相位和相位平滑伪距实现北斗系统精密定轨,并从理论上分析了以上处理策略的可行性及对模糊度固定的影响,然后结合北斗系统精密定轨特点,推导给出了利用QIF方法实现北斗卫星双差模糊度固定的基本原理,实测数据分析表明:联合载波相位和相位平滑伪距,既可降低相关性,又可兼顾精度,定轨效果优于经典双差动力法;利用QIF方法能够取得一定的模糊度固定效果,但受观测条件限制,北斗卫星双差模糊度固定成功率整体不高,双差模糊度固定之后对轨道的改进作用有限。     

A new evil waveforms evaluating method for new BDS navigation signals

With the advent of new global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) and new signals, GNSS users will rely more on them to obtain higher-accuracy positioning. Evil waveform monitoring and assessment are of great importance for GNSS to achieve its positioning, velocity, and timing service with high accuracy. However, the advent of new navigation signals introduces the necessity to extend the traditional analyzing techniques already accepted for binary phase-shift keying modulation to new techniques. First, the well-known second-order step thread model adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization is introduced. Then the extended new general thread models are developed for the new binary offset carrier modulated signals. However, no research has been done on navigation signal waveform symmetry yet. Simulation results showed that, waveform asymmetry may also cause tracking errors, range biases, and position errors in GNSS receivers. It is thus imperative that the asymmetry be quantified to enable the design of appropriate error budgets and mitigation strategies for various application fields. A novel evil waveform analysis method, called waveform rising and falling edge symmetry (WRaFES) method, is proposed. Based on this WRaFES method, the correlation metrics are provided to detect asymmetric correlation peaks distorted by received signal asymmetry. Then the statistical properties of the proposed methods are analyzed, and a proper deformation detection threshold is calculated. Finally, both simulation results and experimentally measured results of Beidou navigation satellite system (BDS) M1-S B1Cd signal are given, which show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed thread models.     

Exploring the spatially varying innovation capacity of the US counties in the framework of Griliches’ knowledge production function: a mixed GWR approach

Griliches’ knowledge production function has been increasingly adopted at the regional level where location-specific conditions drive the spatial differences in knowledge creation dynamics. However, the large majority of such studies rely on a traditional regression approach that assumes spatially homogenous marginal effects of knowledge input factors. This paper extends the authors’ previous work (Kang and Dall’erba in Int Reg Sci Rev, 2015. doi: 10.1177/0160017615572888) to investigate the spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects by using nonparametric local modeling approaches such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed GWR with two distinct samples of the US Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and non-MSA counties. The results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of the knowledge input variables, more specifically for the local and distant spillovers of private knowledge measured across MSA counties. On the other hand, local academic knowledge spillovers are found to display spatially homogenous elasticities in both MSA and non-MSA counties. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each county’s innovation capacity and suggest policy implications for regional innovation strategies.     

Hydrologic modelling of the effect of snowmelt and temperature on a mountainous watershed

Snowmelt-runoff modelling in a mountainous basin is perceived as difficult due to the complexity of simulation. Theoretically, the snowmelt process should be influenced by temperature changes. It is still controversial as how to incorporate the temperature changes into the snowmelt-runoff model in a mountainous basin. This paper presents the results of a study in the North Fork American River basin where the snowmelt-runoff mechanism is modelled by relating the temperature changes to the elevation band in the basin. In this study, a distributed hydrologic model is used to explore the orographic effects on the snowmelt-runoff using the snowfall-snowmelt routine in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three parameters, namely maximum snowmelt factor, minimum snowmelt factor, and snowpack temperature lag were analysed during the simulation. The model was validated using streamflow data from October 1, 1991 to September 30, 1994 with and without considering the elevation band. The result of this study suggests that the snowmelt-runoff model associated with the elevation band better represents the snowmelt-runoff mechanism in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (E _NS ), R ², and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).     

陕北煤矿区地质环境保护与恢复治理措施——以神府矿区郭家湾煤矿为例

郭家湾煤矿地处神府矿区新民采区西北部,为生态环境脆弱区。井田七层煤三个煤组开采后引发地面塌陷、含水层疏干、土地结构变化等地质环境问题,严重制约了地方经济的发展。为了煤炭资源可持续发展,研究陕北煤矿区地质环境保护与恢复治理措施,以1∶10000野外详细调查为依据,首先进行现状评估,然后针对矿山工程建设可能遭受、加剧、引发的矿山地质环境问题进行预测评估,最后提出了以移民搬迁、回填裂缝、生态恢复、建立矿山地质环境监测体系等为主的防治措施,让煤矿开采与矿山地质环境问题恢复治理并行。旨为陕北地区乃至全国煤矿,在保护地质环境中开发利用矿产资源提供依据和示范。     

土地利用变化对延安市生态服务价值的影响

利用延安市2001-2007年土地利用基础数据,计算土地利用动态度,并在Costanza生态系统服务价值理论基础上,结合谢高地等的中国生态系统生态服务价值当量因子表,计算出延安不同生态系统单位面积生态服务价值。并依此尝试计算延安市2001年至2007年延安市生态系统服务价值量。研究发现,2007延安市的生态系统服务价值将达到424.28亿元,比2001年增加28.79亿元,增长率为7.28%;各种土地利用方式的生态系统服务价值的敏感性指数(CS)均小于1,表明其对生态系统的价值变化是缺乏弹性的。     

1948年川西理塘M7.3地震地表破裂特征及Riedel剪切构造分析

1948年川西理塘M 7.3地震是川滇菱形块体内部近一个世纪以来发生的震级最大的走滑型地震。在对此次同震地表破裂进行详细调查基础上,利用差分GPS对同震地表破裂带进行了精确测量与统计分析。结果揭示该地表破裂的现存长度为36 km,北端始于无量河以北,往东南沿藏坝盆地北东缘、德巫盆地东南缘,延伸至德巫乡北,分为南、北两段,而在交德附近存在约3 km长的地表破裂空区。对同震地表破裂的线密度和同震水平位错量进行分段统计后揭示,此次地震的宏观震中应位于德巫盆地中部交德东南约4～5 km处。对理塘同震地表破裂的Riedel剪切分析结果指示,该破裂带主要由R剪切组成,以发育雁列状排列的挤压鼓包(Push-up)为主要特征,伴有少量R′剪切与T裂缝,缺少P型与X型剪切。其中R剪切占95%以上,其在藏坝段(北段)的优势方向为318°,德巫段(南段)为315°,整条地表破裂带的R剪切平均方向为316°。同时发现,此次地震形成的雁列状挤压鼓包主要以平缓的"弧形"为主,这与1981年道孚M_S 6.9地震和2010年玉树M_S 7.1地震地表破裂带中出现大量反"S"形...     

中亚陆间区南带上古生界构造和油气远景（代序）

安加拉-阿尔丹和华北-塔里木两大克拉通之间地壳相对活动性的地区,地质界多称为中亚陆间区,其南带大部分在中国境内。近年来,中国开始把其上古生界作为油气新区、新领域。多数人认为,其在晚古生代已形成过渡型地壳区,其中有许多地块已逐步拼合,在其上发育裂谷型沉积地质体,未受到区域变质,若干实体变形微弱并被上覆层掩盖而得到保存。源于上古生界的油气既可赋存在其内,也可运聚于中生界或基岩内,在其西段已发现了大中型油气田群。但其整体地质研究程度偏低,仍有许多重大区域地质、油气地质问题存在歧见。针对其近年来的进展、存在的问题和油气远景评价作了概括性的评论。