Air quality model performance evaluation

Summary This paper reviews methods to evaluate the performance of air quality models, which are tools that predict the fate of gases and aerosols upon their release into the atmosphere. Because of the large economic, public health, and environmental impacts often associated with the use of air quality model results, it is important that these models be properly evaluated.A comprehensive model evaluation methodology makes use of scientific assessments of the model technical algorithms, statistical evaluations using field or laboratory data, and operational assessments by users in real-world applications. The focus of the current paper is on the statistical evaluation component. It is important that a statistical model evaluation exercise should start with clear definitions of the evaluation objectives and specification of hypotheses to be tested. A review is given of a set of model evaluation methodologies, including the BOOT and the ASTM evaluation software, Taylors nomogram, the figure of merit in space, and the CDF approach. Because there is not a single best performance measure or best evaluation methodology, it is recommended that a suite of different performance measures be applied. Suggestions are given concerning the magnitudes of the performance measures expected of good models. For example, a good model should have a relative mean bias less than about 30% and a relative scatter less than about a factor of two.In order to demonstrate some of the air quality model evaluation methodologies, two simple baseline urban dispersion models are evaluated using the Salt Lake City Urban 2000 field data. The importance of assumptions concerning details such as minimum concentration and pairing of data are shown. Typical plots and tables are presented, including determinations of whether the difference in the relative mean bias between the two models is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.     

Abiotic typology of Polish lakes

According to the requirements of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, all member states of the EU have to establish the typology of their surface waterbodies. The typology is aimed at defining the type-specific reference conditions against which the ecological state of waters can be assessed. The abiotic typology of Polish lakes of an area greater than 50 ha was established based on morphometric, hydrographic and physico-chemical data taken from the Polish national monitoring dataset. The current dataset comprises 749 out of a total of 1042 lakes with an area greater than 50 ha in Poland. Lake types were identified based on a combination of abiotic characteristics of lakes specified in Annex II of the Water Framework Directive such as ecoregions, size, altitude, mean depth, geology and an additional factor – Schindler's ratio. Altogether 13 abiotic lake types were established.     

Circularization of Binary Orbits

In a previous paper Mayer and Hanna (1991) discussed the process of binary orbit circularization for detached eclipsing binaries. An agreement of observational data with Tassoul's circularization time formula for binaries with masses greater than 2.5 M was found. In the present paper we also examine orbital circularization in evolved spectroscopic binaries.     

Evidence of Spatio-Temporal Variations in Contaminants Discharging to a Peri-Urban Stream

Xenobiotic organic compounds can be discharged from contaminated groundwater inflow and may seep into streams from multiple pathways with very different dynamics, some not fully understood. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variation of chlorinated ethenes discharging from a former industrial site (with two main contaminant sources, A and B) into a stream system in a heterogeneous clay till setting in eastern Denmark. The investigated reach and near-stream surroundings are representative of peri-urban settings, with a mix of high channel alteration and more natural stream environment. We therefore propose an approach for risk assessing impacts arising from such complex contamination patterns, accounting for potential spatio-temporal fluctuations and presence of multiple pathways. Our study revealed substantial variations in pathway contributions and overall contaminant mass discharge to the stream. Variable contaminant contributions arising from both groundwater seepage and urban drains were identified in the channelized part of the north stream, primarily from source A. Furthermore, variations in the hyporheic and shallow groundwater flows were found to enhance contaminant transport from source B. These processes result in an increase of the overall mass of contaminant discharged, correlating with the channels' flow. Thus, an in-stream control plane approach was found to be an effective method for integrating multiple and variable discharge contributions quantitatively, although information on specific contaminant sources is lost. This study highlights the complexity and variability of contaminant fluxes occurring at the interface between groundwater and peri-urban streams, and calls for the consideration of these variations when designing monitoring programs and remedial actions for contaminated sites with the potential to impact streams.     

An evaluation of measures for quantifying map information

A real-time map must not contain too much information. Therefore, we need measures of map information that could be guidelines for the selection of data layers and the real-time generalisation process. In this paper we evaluate measures of the amount of information and the distribution of information. The evaluation is performed by (1) defining measures, (2) implementing the measures, (3) computing the measures for some test maps, and finally (4) comparing the values of the measures with human judgement of the map information. For amount of information, we found that the measures number of objects, number of points and object line length had better correspondence with human judgement than object area. We also found that measures based on the size of Voronoi regions of objects (respectively points) can be used for identifying the distribution of information. The results are based on the testing of only building objects. Future work should extend the test, using all object types.     

Geographic clustering of firms and urban form: a multivariate analysis

This paper provides an empirical framework that applies spatial statistics methods to assess the relation between the change in the geographical clustering of firms and the emergence of urban form. We contend that where firms locate and eventually cluster give rise to the way commercial and industrial land uses are organized over space, which in turn defines the shape of urban form. Accordingly, the objectives of our work are twofold: (1) to identify the extent and shape of firm clustering and co-location at the intra-metropolitan level, and (2) examine how the change in the geographic clustering of different industries contributes to decentralization and the evolution of urban form. Spatial statistics methods and tools were vital and helped to fulfill these objectives.      

Business establishment mobility behavior in urban areas: a microanalytical model for the City of Hamilton in Ontario,Canada

We present a microanalytical firm mobility model for the City of Hamilton, Canada, developed with data from the Statistics Canada Business Register. Contributing to the scarce literature on firm migration behavior, we explore and model the determinants of mobility among small and medium size firms who retained less than 200 employees between 1996 and 1997. Our exploratory results suggest that short distance moves are more common and tend to occur among smaller firms. Econometric modeling results support these assertions and indicate that the willingness to move can be explained by a firm’s internal characteristics (e.g. age, size, growth and industry type) as well as location factors related to the urban environment where the firm is located. The modeling results will serve as input for the development of an agent-based firmographic decision support system that can be used to inform the planning process in the study area.      

Luminescence Variations in Fast-Growing Stalagmites from Uppsala, Sweden

Two fast‐growing stalagmites from a cellar vault in Uppsala, southeast Sweden, are analysed for their luminescent properties. The results indicate that variations in luminescence intensity in the stalagmites are annual. Due to problems in finding a suitable absolute dating method this assumption cannot yet be firmly tested; however, results from radiocarbon dating of one of the stalagmites do not contradict the proposal that the laminae are annual. If so, the speleothems have been growing for 10–15 years with a growth rate of 3–8 mm per year, which is a similar rate to other fast‐growing speleothems in Great Britain that have formed from the reaction of lime mortar and carbon dioxide. It is likely that the assumed annual laminae of the luminescence record represent a flush of organic material.     

Using Astrophysical Data Archives In Astrophysical Research: RXTEAs A Case Study

In this paper, we highlight the significance of astrophysical dataarchives, and the great opprtunities they are offering for researchersin general, and those in the developing countries in particular. Wefocus on high energy astrophysical data archives, taking RXTE as a casestudy, where we give a brief introduction to this satellite and itsinstrumentation. Then we explain in certain detail the processes ofsearch and retrieval of RXTE's archival data, finally touching verybriefly upon its data analysis.     

Passive earth pressure on embedded vertical plate anchors in sand

Passive earth pressure on embedded anchor plates constitutes a viable resisting force for the design of underground structures. In the current practice, these forces are empirically calculated, ignoring the effects of the depth of embedment and the level of consolidation of the surrounding soil, which takes place during plate installation on the in situ stress levels. Accordingly, wide discrepancies between predicted and measured pullout capacities of these plates were reported in the literature. Numerical model was developed using finite-element technique and the constitutive law of Mohr?CCoulomb to simulate the case of a retaining wall partially supported by an embedded anchor plate in sand. The results produced in this investigation showed that the passive earth pressure acting on anchor plates increases due to the increase of angle of shearing resistance and the overconsolidation ratio of sand, and it decreases due to an increase of the embedment depth of anchor. Design theories were developed for the case of embedded anchor plate in overconsolidated sand. The theories developed will satisfy the design needed in terms of allowable pullout load and/or displacement.