Implementation of integrated multi-channel analysis of surface waves and waveform inversion techniques for seismic hazard estimation

In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion method and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20 %) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels for both selected probabilities of exceeding the median.     

Seismic risk assessment at the proposed site of Gemsa wind power station,southwestern coast of Gulf of Suez,Egypt

Gemsa has been chosen as the site for one of a new generation of power stations along the south-western margin of the Gulf of Suez. This site has been affected by a number of destructive earthquakes (M_w> 5), in addition to large number of earthquakes with magnitudes of less than 5. In this study seismic activities in the region were collected and re-evaluated, and the main earthquake prone zones were identified. It is indicated that this site is affected by the southern Gulf of Suez, northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba source zones. The southern Gulf of Suez source zone is the nearest to the proposed site. The stochastic simulation method has been applied to estimate the Peak GroundAcceleration at the site of the proposed Gemsa power plant. It was noticed that the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) reaches 175 cm/sec2 resulting from the southern Gulf of Suez seismic source. In addition, the response spectrum was conducted with a damping value of 5% of the critical damping, and the predominant period reached 0.1sec at the site. These results should be taken into consideration by civil engineers and decision-makers for designing earthquake resistant structures.     

Experiments on integral length scale control in atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnel

Accurate predictions of turbulent characteristics in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depends on understanding the effects of surface roughness on the spatial distribution of velocity, turbulence intensity, and turbulence length scales. Simulation of the ABL characteristics have been performed in a short test section length wind tunnel to determine the appropriate length scale factor for modeling, which ensures correct aeroelastic behavior of structural models for non-aerodynamic applications. The ABL characteristics have been simulated by using various configurations of passive devices such as vortex generators, air barriers, and slot in the test section floor which was extended into the contraction cone. Mean velocity and velocity fluctuations have been measured using a hot-wire anemometry system. Mean velocity, turbulence intensity, turbulence scale, and power spectral density of velocity fluctuations have been obtained from the experiments for various configuration of the passive devices. It is shown that the integral length scale factor can be controlled using various combinations of the passive devices.     

Stochastic modeling of length of day and universal time

We propose a general stochastic model for the UT1/LOD system and derive the corresponding Kalman filter model. This stochastic model consists of an arbitrary sum of continous time autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes, each chosen to characterize a different frequency band. The transition matrix which corresponds to the overall system and the time-dependent process noise covariance matrix are derived.Based on the general formulation, several models for UT1 were derived from spectral analysis of the Space 92 UT1 series (Gross,1993). Using Space 92 as the reference series, the candidate models were compared based on their ability to predict UT1 and LOD up to 30 days in the absence of data. These candidate models were compared with the JPL operational Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF) which assumes a random walk model for LOD (Morabito et al.,1987). The results of the comparison revealed that autoregressive modeling the 40–50 day oscillation in the LOD reduces the LOD prediction error by 10prediction.     

Aircraft observations of electrical conductivity in warm clouds

Aircraft observations of electrical conductivity and cloud microphsical, dynamical and other electrical parameters were made in warm stratocumulus and cumulus clouds forming during the summer monsoon seasons (June-September) of 1983 and 1985 in the Deccan Plateau region, India. A Gerdien type cylindrical condenser was used for the measurement of electrical conductivity. The variations in the electrical conductivity are observed to be closely associated with the updrafts and downdrafts in the cloud, liquid water content, cloud droplet charge and coro-na discharge current. The value of electrical conductivity in warm clouds is found to be in the order of 10-12 ohm-1 m-1 which is two orders higher than that observed in clear-air at cloud-base levels in some regions by other investigators.Classical static electricity concepts predict reduced conductivity values inside clouds. Cloud electrical conductivi-ty measurements, particularly in warm clouds are few and the results are contradictory. The recently identified mech-anism of vertical mixing in clouds lends support to coovective charge separation mechanism with inherent larger than clear-air values for cloud electrical conductivity and therefore consistent with the measurements reported herein.     

Geological and soil engineering properties of shallow landslides occurring in the Kutupalong Rohingya Camp in Cox’s Bazar,Bangladesh

Landslides - The Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN), historically known as ‘Rohingya’ who fled the 2017 ethnic atrocities and genocide in the Northern Rakhine State of Myanmar,...     

Contraction of near-Earth satellite orbits using uniformly regular KS canonical elements in an oblate atmosphere with density scale height variation with altitude

A new non-singular analytical theory for the contraction of near-Earth satellite orbits under the influence of air drag is developed in terms of uniformly regular Kustaanheimo and Stiefel (KS) canonical elements using an oblate atmosphere with variation of density scale height with altitude. The series expansions include up to fourth power in terms of eccentricity and c (a small parameter dependent on the flattening of the atmosphere). Only two of the nine equations are solved analytically to compute the state vector and change in energy at the end of each revolution, due to symmetry in the equations of motion. It is observed that the analytically computed values of the semi-major axis and eccentricity are consistent with the numerically integrated values up to 500 revolutions over a wide range of the drag-perturbed orbital parameters. The theory can be effectively used for re-entry of near-Earth objects.     

Improvement in predictability of waves over the Indian Ocean

Accurate prediction of ocean surface waves is a challenging task with many associated difficulties. Availability of good quality wind and wave information from satellite platforms inspired the scientific community to assimilate such data in various spectral wave models for enhancing the accuracy of prediction. Over the Indian Ocean, which is the region of interest for the present study, wave heights in extreme situation can go up to 12–14 m, thereby increasing the probability of coastal hazards. This region is further governed by the southern ocean swells that propagate thousands of kilometers. These are, in general, not well captured by the spectral wave models. Therefore, assimilation of altimeter data in open ocean wave model WAM has been attempted with the aim of enhancing the quality of prediction of significant wave height. Further, simulated wave spectra have been assimilated in a coastal wave model SWAN. This assimilation has been found to significantly improve the prediction of the height of wind waves as well as swell waves. V. Bhatt and S. Surendran are former students of Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad.