Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River

Abstract

One of the world's largest irrigation networks, based on the Indus River system in Pakistan, faces serious scarcity of water in one season and disastrous floods in another. The system is dominated both by monsoon and by snow and glacier dynamics, which confer strong seasonal and inter-annual variability. In this paper two different forecasting methods are utilized to analyse the long-term seasonal behaviour of the Indus River. The study also assesses whether the strong seasonal behaviour is dominated by the presence of low-dimensional nonlinear dynamics, or whether the periodic behaviour is simply immersed in random fluctuations. Forecasts obtained by nonlinear prediction (NLP) and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methods show that the performance of NLP is relatively better than the SARIMA method. This, along with the low values of the correlation dimension, is indicative of low-dimensional nonlinear behaviour of the hydrological dynamics. A relatively better performance of NLP, using an inverse technique, may also be indicative of the low-dimensional behaviour. Moreover, the embedding dimension of the best NLP forecasts is in good agreement with the estimated correlation dimension. This provides evidence that the nonlinearity inherent in the monthly river flow due to the snowmelt and the monsoon variations dominate over the high-dimensional components and might be exploited for prediction and modelling of the complex hydrological system.

Citation Hassan, S. A. & Ansari, M. R. K. (2010) Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 250–265.     

Mumbai 2005, Bihar 2008 Flood Reflected in Mass Changes Seen by GRACE Satellites

Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites were launched on March 17 2002 to derive with unprecedented accuracy, estimates of the global high resolution model of the earth’s gravity field. Local gravity changes with change in mass or mass redistribution. The mass changes can be due to hydrological events, seismic events or postglacial rebound, majorly. GRACE is sensitive to changes at large spatial scale since the resolution of GRACE is 400 km. Hydrological activities over basins provide sufficient mass changes to be detected by GRACE. In this research paper the discussion would be about two major flooding events in India, one being the 2005 monsoon flooding in Mumbai and nearby states and other being flood experienced by Bihar in 2008. The GRACE data is in the form of matrix consisting spherical harmonic coefficients. These coefficients are processed to obtain mass changes in terms of equivalent water height at a spatial scale of 400 km. The strategy of analysis is also discussed which need to be followed depending upon limitations of GRACE observation and requirement of application, here in this case application is flood induced mass change detection. Time-series and residual plots are generated and they show the flooding events for the concerned area as outliers. Better visualisation is obtained by residual plot, if there is a trend or systematic behaviour in time-series. This work points towards the qualitative capability of GRACE to detect flooding events at large spatial scale. Quantitative analysis requires in-situ data over the period of GRACE which is not possible for the cases discussed here.     

Estimation of water cloud model vegetation parameters using a genetic algorithm

Abstract

The water cloud model is used to account for the effect of vegetation water content on radar backscatter data. The model generally comprises two parameters that characterize the vegetated terrain, A and B, and two bare soil parameters, C and D. In the present study, parameters A and B were estimated using a genetic algorithm (GA) optimization technique and compared with estimates obtained by the sequential unconstrained minimization technique (SUMT) from measured backscatter data. The parameter estimation was formulated as a least squares optimization problem by minimizing the deviations between the backscatter coefficients retrieved from the ENVISAT ASAR image and those predicted by the water cloud model. The bias induced by three different objective functions was statistically analysed by generating synthetic backscatter data. It was observed that, when the backscatter coefficient data contain no errors, the objective functions do not induce any bias in the parameter estimation and the true parameters are uniquely identified. However, in the presence of noise, these objective functions induce bias in the parameter estimates. For the cases considered, the objective function based on the sum of squares of normalized deviations with respect to the computed backscatter coefficient resulted in the best possible estimates. A comparison of the GA technique with the SUMT was undertaken in estimating the water cloud model parameters. For the case considered, the GA technique performed better than the SUMT in parameter estimation, where the root mean squared error obtained from the GA was about half of that obtained by the SUMT.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. See

Citation Kumar, K., Hari Prasad, K.S. and Arora, M.K., 2012. Estimation of water cloud model vegetation parameters using a genetic algorithm. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 776–789.     

Groundwater pesticides residue in the southwest of Iran-Shushtar plain

Study area with an area of about 415 km² is located from 31°40′ to 32°05′ northern latitudes and 48°45′ to 49°00′ eastern longitudes 85 km to the north-east of Ahwaz city, in the north of Khuzestan province, and south west of Iran. The purpose of this study is: (1) the determination of the pesticides concentration in the groundwater of the Shushtar plain (Mian-Ab) and (2) the assessment of geology, hydrogeology and anthropogenic activities impacts the groundwater quality. Thirty-seven groundwater samples were taken from product wells based on the standard methods. A simple and efficient automated method for extraction and preconcentration was used. In this method, a pyrrole-based polymer was synthesized and applied as an efficient sorbent for micro-solid-phase extraction. After extraction, analytes were desorbed in ethyl acetate and analyzed using gas chromatography–flame. The study area is surrounded by Aghajari Formation dominated by silt and clay sediments and the Bakhtiari Formation dominated by sand and gravel. Existence of these formations affects the aquifer sediments and the hydrogeological properties. In the study area, the sediments grade from gravel and sand in the north and east into silt and clay to the south and west, respectively. The topsoil in the south of the study area contains more clay sediments. In this study, the concentration of two common herbicides, i.e., 2,4-D and clodinafop propargyl and two pesticides, i.e., permethrin and diazinon, in the groundwater of Mian-Ab aquifer was assessed. Chemical analysis results showed that the 2,4-D residue in the groundwater has the highest concentration (15 ppm). About 50% of the samples have concentration values more than the maximum contamination level based on EPA drinking standard. The pesticides concentrations decrease from the north to the south of the study area. Pesticides influx to the groundwater in the south of the area is prevented or diminished due to the specific geological situation and soil type. Distribution pattern of population centers, which increase to the north of the study area, and the role of groundwater as the main source of drinking water are two important issues that must be considered in management of pesticides use in the area.     

Compositions and petrogenetic significance of the eudialyte group minerals from Sushina,Purulia, West Bengal

The eudialyte-group of minerals (EGM) is one of the most important index minerals of the peralkaline (agpaitic) nepheline syenites. They crystallize in varied physico-chemical conditions ranging from the early-magmatic (orthomagmatic) to late-magmatic and even in the post-magmatic (hydrothermal) stage. In India, the only agpaitic nepheline syenite gneisses of the Sushina Hill region contain both late-magmatic as well as hydrothermal eudialytes. Compositionally these are Mn-Nb-Ca rich eudialytes and are comparable to the other EGM occurrences such as Ilímaussaq (Greenland), Tamazeght (Morocco), Mont-Saint Hilaire (Canada) and Pilansberg (South Africa). High Mn content (>6.5 wt.%) for both varieties of the Sushina EGM indicates that they are highly evolved in nature. In terms of the calculated site occupancy, particularly the [M(3)] and [M(2)], the Sushina eudialytes mimic some Pilansberg eudialytes. In addition to the eudialyte, the host nepheline syenite gneiss also contains an unknown Na-Zr-silicate (NZS) which is often found to be replacing both types of eudialytes. Compositionally these NZS can be tentatively represented as Na₂Zr₂S₆O₁₇. These NZS are characterized by much higher Zr, but lower Mn and Nb concentrations compared to the associated eudialytes. Two distinct varieties of eudialyte and NZS indicate subtle changes in the alkalinity during their formations. The formation of the late-magmatic as well as hydrothermal eudialyte essentially took place at somewhat elevated pH conditions. The replacement or alteration of eudialytes by NZS indicates a decreasing pH condition. In terms of the chemical composition the late-magmatic eudialytes can be represented as a solid-solution series between the kentbrooksite-taseqite-aqualite while the hydrothermal eudialyte represents solid-solution between kentbrooksitetaseqite -Ce-zirsilite.     

Palaeobotany of Gondwana basins of Orissa State, India: A bird's eye view

Gondwana basins of Orissa State constitute a major part of the Mahanadi Master Basin. These Gondwana sediments, ranging from Asselian to Albian in age, contain remnants of three basic floral assemblages i.e. Glossopteris Assemblage, Dicroidium Assemblage and Ptilophyllum Assemblage which can be recognized through the Permian, Triassic and Early Cretaceous, respectively. The megafloral assemblages of different basins of this state are discussed briefly. This report mainly deals with the plant species diversification in different lithological formations and the development of flora in the Gondwana basins of Orissa. A number of successive megafloras are recognized. Among those, leaves are the dominant part of the preserved flora, followed by fruits and roots. No wood parts are preserved in the major basins. These pre-angiospermic floras have been systematically analyzed to depict the evolutionary trends, and palaeofloristics of these basins. The distribution of plant fossils in different formations of these basins depicts provincialism in Gondwana flora within the Orissa.     

Occurrence of Cordaitales from lower Gondwana sediments of Ib-River Coalfield, Orissa, India: An Indian scenario

The Ib-River Coalfield in Orissa State is a part of Mahanadi Master Basin. Recent extensive investigations were conducted in this Coalfield to locate fossiliferous beds in the Lower Gondwana deposits and as a result a large cache of plant fossils were recovered from Lower Permian sediments (Barakar Formation) exposed in Jurabaga and Lajkura Collieries. The complete flora includes 23 genera representing nine orders viz., Lycopodiales, Equisetales, Sphenophyllales, Filicales, Cordaitales, Coniferales, Ginkgoales, Cycadales and Glossopteridales. Only the Cordaitales, represented by four genera i.e., Noeggerathiopsis, Cordaites, Euryphyllum and Kawizophyllum are discussed in this paper. Cordaitalean leaves are described for the first time from this coalfield; the remaining plant groups will be considered in a subsequent publication. Cordaitalean leaves attributable to Noeggerathiopsis hislopii, Noeggerathiopsis minor, Euryphyllum whittianum, Euryphyllum maithyi, Kawizophyllum dunpathriensis and Cordaites sp. constitute about 13.90% (111 specimens) of the total plant assemblage collected from this Coalfield. Of the cordaitaleans, N. hislopii is most abundant (47.75%; 53 specimens) followed by E. whittianum (40.54%; 45 specimens). A summary of the distribution of Cordaitales throughout the Indian Gondwana is also presented. Floristic composition varies stratigraphically at the two Barakar exposures (Lajkura and Jurabaga Collieries). Cordaitales are preserved only in the lowermost (4th) horizon (lower floral zone). Strata in these collieries have been assigned to the lower and upper Barakar Formation based on floristic content and an Early Permian (Artinskian) age is assigned.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON BED SCOUR IN A 90° CHANNEL BEND

1 INTRODUCTION Scouring in the bend ways leads to deep sections at the toe of the outer bank of the bend. The presenceof secondary currents and the greater depths at the outer bank cause high velocity along the outer bank.The high velocity and shear stres…     

Engineering characteristics of road aggregates from northern Pakistan and the development of a toughness index

This paper summarizes an extensive series of common durability, shape and strength tests carried out on road aggregates from quarries in northern Pakistan by Sharif et al. at the University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila. The data from these standard tests have been correlated for a particular aggregate type to show the close relationship between these measured physical characteristics. The paper outlines how, once these relationships have been established for a particular aggregate source, it is feasible to simplify the testing or quality assurance regime and monitor only some of these characteristics to assess the overall quality of the aggregate. The physical characteristics have then been combined into a linear relationship, using coefficients estimated from the extensive data set in the paper, to give a single characteristic for an aggregate type known as the Toughness Index (TI). The TI is therefore based on the main strength and durability characteristics of the aggregates and can be used as an indicator of the overall quality of the aggregate.