Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin,Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

Abstract

A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

阿尔金断裂西段首期GPS观测资料处理及初步结果

本文介绍了中国科学院青藏高原研究所在阿尔金断裂西段进行GPS观测的剖面布设和首期观测情况.利用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对首期观测数据进行了处理,并将结果归算到区域参考框架下.GAMIT计算得到的"准观测值"均满足所须精度,其中单天解标准化均方差小于0.3,基线的平均相对精度为1.8×10-9.GLOBK在区域参考框架...     

Oxygen isotope exchange between H2O and CO2 at elevated CO2 pressures: Implications for monitoring of geological CO2 storage

Traditionally, the application of stable isotopes in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects has focused on δ¹³C values of CO₂ to trace the migration of injected CO₂ in the subsurface. More recently the use of δ¹⁸O values of both CO₂ and reservoir fluids has been proposed as a method for quantifying in situ CO₂ reservoir saturations due to O isotope exchange between CO₂ and H₂O and subsequent changes in δ¹⁸O_H2O values in the presence of high concentrations of CO₂. To verify that O isotope exchange between CO₂ and H₂O reaches equilibrium within days, and that δ¹⁸O_H2O values indeed change predictably due to the presence of CO₂, a laboratory study was conducted during which the isotope composition of H₂O, CO₂, and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) was determined at representative reservoir conditions (50 °C and up to 19 MPa) and varying CO₂ pressures. Conditions typical for the Pembina Cardium CO₂ Monitoring Pilot in Alberta (Canada) were chosen for the experiments. Results obtained showed that δ¹⁸O values of CO₂ were on average 36.4 ± 2.2‰ (1σ, n = 15) higher than those of water at all pressures up to and including reservoir pressure (19 MPa), in excellent agreement with the theoretically predicted isotope enrichment factor of 35.5‰ for the experimental temperatures of 50 °C. By using ¹⁸O enriched water for the experiments it was demonstrated that changes in the δ¹⁸O values of water were predictably related to the fraction of O in the system sourced from CO₂ in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions. Since the fraction of O sourced from CO₂ is related to the total volumetric saturation of CO₂ and water as a fraction of the total volume of the system, it is concluded that changes in δ¹⁸O values of reservoir fluids can be used to calculate reservoir saturations of CO₂ in CCS settings given that the δ¹⁸O values of CO₂ and water are sufficiently distinct.     

The sinkhole enigma in the Alpine Foreland, Southeast Germany: Evidence of impact-induced rock liquefaction processes

Sudden collapse of the Quaternary soil to form sinkholes on the order of meters and tens of meters has been a geologic phenomenon within living memory in a localized area north of Lake Chiemsee in Southeast Germany. Failing a satisfying explanation, a relation with an undefined glaciation process has always been proposed. Excavations and geophysical measurements at three newly affected sites show underground features such as prominent sandy-gravelly intrusions and extrusions typical of rock liquefaction processes well known to occur during strong earthquakes. Since strong earthquakes can reasonably be excluded to have affected the area under discussion, it has been suggested that the observed widespread liquefaction is related with the recently proposed Holocene Chiemgau meteorite impact event. Except for one earlier proposed but unassertive relation between impact and liquefaction, the obviously direct association of both processes in the Chiemgau area emphasizes that observed paleoliquefaction features need not necessarily have originated solely from paleoseismicity but can provide a recognizable regional impact signature.     

Shallow site archaeology: Artifact dispersal,stratigraphy, and radiocarbon dating at the Barger Gulch locality B Folsom Site,Middle Park,Colorado

Shallowly buried archaeological sites are particularly susceptible to surface and subsurface disturbance processes. Yet, because cultural deposition often operates on short time scales relative to geologic deposition, vertical artifact distributions can be used to clarify questions of site formation. In particular, patterns in artifact distributions that cannot be explained by occupation histories must be explained by natural processes that have affected sites. Buried only 10–50 cm beneath the ground surface for 10,450 ¹⁴C yr, the Folsom component at Barger Gulch Locality B (Middle Park, Colorado) exhibits many signs of post‐depositional disturbance. Through examination of variation in the vertical distribution of the artifact assemblage, we are able to establish that only a Folsom component is present. Using vertical artifact distributions, stratigraphy, and radiocarbon dating, we are able to reconstruct the series of events that have impacted the site. The Folsom occupation (˜10,450 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) was likely initially buried in a late‐Pleistocene eolian silt loam. Erosion brought the artifacts to rest on a deflation surface at some time prior to 9400 ¹⁴C yr B.P. A mollic epipedon formed in sediments that accumulated between 9400 and 7000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Some time after 5200 ¹⁴C yr B.P., this soil was partially truncated, and artifacts that had previously dispersed upward created a secondary lag at its upper contact. This surface was buried again and artifact dispersal continued. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

贵州织金片区影像地层研究

选定遥感解译程度较好的贵州西部高原山区织金片作为研究对象,以美国Landsa t / TM数据为数据源,选择各波段之间相关系数最小的TM7、TM 4、TM1波段合成假彩色图像,采用人机交互的目视解译方法进行影像地层划分。研究区碳酸盐岩地层以其独特的溶蚀地貌而显示为斑状、块状影像,地表水系不发育; 碎屑岩地层因流水侵蚀地貌而表现为曲线状、网状纹理,从而使不同地层上下层位在空间结构信息上显示出差异。据此,通过界面、特殊纹理、代表性色调和典型水系等对地层影像进行比较、确认。在此基础上,将研究区主要出露的地层划分为14个影像地层单元。经野外验证,影像地层划分结果与传统的地层划分单元或单元组合吻合度较好。      

Nitrogen uptake and denitrification in restored and unrestored streams in urban Maryland, USA

There is growing interest in rates of nitrate uptake and denitrification in restored streams to better understand the effects of restoration on nitrogen processing. This study quantified nitrate uptake in two restored and two unrestored streams in Baltimore, Maryland, USA using nitrate additions, denitrification enzyme assays, and a ¹⁵N isotope tracer addition in one of the urban restored streams, Minebank Run. Restoration included either incorporation of stormwater ponds below a storm drain and catch basins to attenuate flow or hydrologic “reconnection” of a stream channel to its floodplain. Stream restoration was conducted for restoring aging sanitary and bridge infrastructure and introducing some stormwater management in watersheds developed prior to current regulations. Denitrification potential in sediments was variable across streams, whereas nitrate uptake length appeared to be significantly correlated to surface water velocity, which was low in the restored streams during summer baseflow conditions. Uptake length of NO₃ ⁻–N in Minebank Run estimated by ¹⁵N tracer addition was 556 m. Whole stream denitrification rates in Minebank Run were 153 mg NO₃ ⁻–N m⁻² day⁻¹, and approximately 40% of the daily load of nitrate was estimated to be removed via denitrification over a distance of 220.5 m in a stream reach designed to be hydrologically “connected” to its floodplain. Increased hydrologic residence time in Minebank Run during baseflow likely influenced rates of whole stream denitrification, suggesting that hydrologic residence time may be a key factor influencing N uptake and denitrification. Restoration approaches that increase hydrologic “connectivity” with hyporheic sediments and increase hydrologic residence time may be useful for stimulating denitrification. More work is necessary, however, to examine changes in denitrification rates in restored streams across different seasons, variable N loads, and in response to the “flashy” hydrologic flow conditions during storms common in urban streams.     

Isotopic and geochemical characterization of salinization in the shallow aquifers of a reclaimed subsiding zone: The southern Venice Lagoon coastland

The coastal plain bordering the southern Venice Lagoon is a reclaimed lowland characterized by high subsidence rate, and ground level and water-table depth below sea level. In this agricultural region, where the surface hydrologic network is entirely artificially controlled by irrigation/drainage canals, salinization problems have long been encountered in soils and groundwaters. Here we use isotopic and geochemical tracers to improve our understanding of the origin of salinization and mineralization of the semi-confined aquifer (0–40 m), and the freshwater inputs to this hydrological system. Water samples have been collected at different seasons in the coastal Adriatic Sea, lagoon, rivers and irrigation canals, as well as in the semi-confined aquifer at depths between 12 and 35 m (14 boreholes), and in the first confined aquifer (three boreholes drilled between 40 and 80 m depth). Stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δD) and conductivity profiles show that direct saline intrusion from the sea or the lagoon is observed only in a restricted coastal strip, while brackish groundwaters are found over the entire topographic and piezometric depression in the centre of the study area. Fresh groundwaters are found only in the most western zone. The sharp isotopic contrast between the western and central regions suggests disconnected hydrological circulations between these two parts of the shallow aquifer. The border between these two regions also corresponds to the limits of the most strongly subsiding zone.Our results can be interpreted in terms of a four end-member mixing scheme, involving (1) marine water from the lagoon or the open sea, (2) alpine and pre-alpine regional recharge waters carried either by the main rivers Adige, Bacchiglione and Brenta (irrigation waters) or by the regional groundwater circulation, (3) local precipitation, and (4) evaporated waters infiltrated from the surface. Infiltration from the surface is also revealed by the stratification of the electrical conductivity profiles, showing that the brackish groundwaters are overlain by a shallow layer of less saline water all over the central depression. In the first confined aquifer, the groundwaters have isotopic compositions similar to the deep groundwaters of the Venetian confined aquifers (40–400 m depth). The isotopic data and the Br/Cl ratio show that the origin of the salinization of the phreatic aquifer can be ascribed to seawater intrusion alone, with no indication of the involvement of deep brines (identified at 450 m depth) in the process.The chemical composition of the saline and brackish groundwaters is characterized by an excess of sodium and a deficit of calcium compared to conservative mixing between fresh groundwaters and seawater. This suggests that the phreatic aquifer is progressively freshening, as a consequence of the beneficial influence of the extensive irrigation/drainage network, including raised canals acting as a hydraulic barrier along the coast. This freshening tendency may have been lasting since the reclamation in the mid-twentieth century, and has probably been accelerated by the ban on groundwater abstraction since the 1970s.     

Microtopographic evolution of mineral surfaces as a tool to identify and date young fault scarps in bedrock

Faulting that results in surface ruptures through bedrock can be particularly difficult to date. For example, stratigraphic control on the age of faulting, based on the age of the bedrock, often leaves unacceptably large uncertainty on the age of the faulting. From a paleoseismological perspective, there is a clear need to determine if a bedrock fault scarp is actually a young feature. For young fault ruptures that create fresh mineral surfaces, analysis of microtopography developed by weathering of the mineral surface may provide a quantifiable method for determining the fault age. The direct quantitative measurement of mineral surface microtopography using Atomic Force Microscopy affords a novel method to study the rupture ages of active faults. The method for using microtopographic evolution of mineral surfaces depends on three conditions. The first condition is that freshly exposed mineral cleavage surfaces, which can be described geometrically as planes, are formed during a rupture event. The formation of these fresh surfaces is analogous to the initiation of a weathering ‘clock’ that defines time t=0. Following cleavage formation dissolution of the planar mineral surface occurs. The rate of dissolution for a mineral species under given climatic conditions, governs the rate of mineral surface alteration. Thus as dissolution proceeds, the roughness of the mineral surface increases. We suggest that the progression of microtopographic roughness over time, which can be estimated by computing quantitative statistics derived from digital mineral surface topography, will systematically vary until a steady state surface topography is reached. The fractal dimension, D_f, is one such measure of surface roughness where, D_f at time t=0 is 2. The dissolution of the mineral surface increases the fractal dimension as the removal of material proceeds. We posit that somewhere between D_f=2 and D_f=3, the microtopography reaches a steady state. Therefore, in the pre-steady state stage of surface roughness, the quantitative measure of roughness of the mineral may serve as a measure of time elapsed since faulting. The period of time this initial stage of surface roughening represents is dependent on the mineral and as a consequence, its dissolution rate, in a specific set of environmental conditions. The time elapsed since fault rupture and grain cleavage can also be estimated from the measurement of the volume of material removed through dissolution. If part of the original cleavage surface remains and can be identified then AFM measurements of the surface microtopography can be used to calculate the dissolved volume per unit area.