Wave-like processes in the ionospheric F region that accompanied rocket launches from the Baikonur site

Results of the observations performed using the wave-like disturbance (WLD) method at iono-spheric altitudes of 100–500 km during ten Soyuz and Proton rocket launches (RLs) in 2003–2005 have been analyzed. The observations were performed with the Kharkov incoherent scatter radar. It has been confirmed that WLDs propagated at a velocity of 560–740 m/s were observed reliably. Disturbances propagated at a higher velocity of several kilometers per second were observed indefinitely. Disturbances caused by RLs were most clearly defined at altitudes of 150–350 km. Rocket launches cased either enhancement or suppression of WLDs in the ionosphere. The relative amplitude of WLDs usually varied within 3–30%.     

A posteriori local error estimation and adaptive time-stepping for newmark integration in dynamic analysis

A simple a posteriori local error estimate for Newmark time integration schemes in dynamic analysis is presented, based on the concept of a so called ‘post-processing’ technique. In conjunction with the error estimate, an adaptive time-stepping algorithm is described, which adjusts the time step size so that the local error of each time step is within a prescribed error tolerance. Numerical examples given in the paper indicate that the error estimate is asymptotically convergent, computationally efficient and convenient, and the adaptive time-stepping scheme can predict a nearly optimal step size from time to time, thus making the numerical solution reliable in an efficient manner.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Field and Laboratory Analyses of Water from the Columbia Aquifer in Eastern Maryland

Field and laboratory analyses of pH, alkalinity, and specific conductance from water samples collected from the Columbia aquifer on the Delmarva Peninsula in eastern Maryland were compared to determine if laboratory analyses could be used for making regional water-quality interpretations. On the basis of 170 field pH and specific conductance measurements, 165 laboratory pH and specific conductance measurements, and 86 field and 135 laboratory alkalinity measurements, a significant difference at the 0.1-percent level was found between laboratory and field analyses of pH and specific conductance. No significant difference was found between laboratory and field analyses of alkalinity. In most samples, laboratory pH was greater than field pH, laboratory specific conductance was less than field specific conductance, and laboratory alkalinity was equally likely to be less than, the same as, or greater than field alkalinity. Kruskal-Wallis tests of field and laboratory data grouped by north-south and east-west coordinates and by land use indicate that the difference between field and laboratory values is usually not enough to affect the outcome of the statistical tests. Thus, laboratory measurements of these constituents may be adequate for making certain regional water-quality interpretations, although they may result in errors if used for geochemical interpretations.     

A universal thermal equation-of-state

Evidence has steadily accumulated to show that at high temperatures (above the Debye temperature, θ) the thermal pressure, P_TH, of solids, is linear with T to a close approximation. This empirical finding yields a simple relationship between P, V, and T quite useful for the computation of the equation-of-state (EOS). For geophysical applications, the empirical data is, so far, limited to a few minerals, all of which are important to our geophysical models of the Earth. The same results have been found for a variety of types of solids, including alkali metals, noble gas solids, alkali halides and metals in addition to minerals. It is argued that the linearity between P_TH and T is a general high-temperature property of solids. This includes minerals. Thus it is proposed that there exists a common thermal EOS which transcends the chemical bonding type and crystallographic class.     

The mid-ocean ridge axial valley as a steady-state neck

In this paper the mid-ocean ridge axial valley is modelled as a steady-state lithospheric neck in which lithospheric stretching balances lithospheric accretion. Conversely, the axial high is a steady-state lithospheric bulge. The lithosphere is modelled as a thin plate with a Newtonian rheology. It is shown that an axial valley will occur if the rate of viscosity increase away from the ridge axis is faster than the rate at which accretion decreases. An axial high will occur if the opposite condition holds. This is consistent with the observation that axial valleys occur at low spreading rates and axial highs at high spreading rates. By fitting our model to profiles across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the East Pacific Rise and assuming the lithospheric thickness at the ridge axis to be 5 km, we find accretion widths of 6–8 km. We find the width over which there is a significant increase in lithospheric viscosity to be also 6–8 km.     

Anisotropic models of the upper mantle

Long period Rayleigh wave and Love wave dispersion data, particularly for oceanic areas, have not been simultaneously satisfied by an isotropic structure. In this paper available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, anelastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. We assume that the surface wave data represents an azimuthal average of actual velocities. Thus, we can treat the mantle as transversely isotropic. The resulting models for average Earth, average ocean, and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low-velocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studies. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggestive. For most of the Earth SH > SV in the vicinity of the low-velocity zone. Neat the East Pacific Rise, however, SV > SH at depth, consistent with ascending flow. Anisotropy is as important as temperature in causing radial and lateral variations in velocity. The models have a high velocity nearly isotropic layer at the top of the mantle that thickens with age. This layer defines the LID, or seismic lithosphere. In the Pacific, the LID thickens with age to a maximum thickness of ～50 km. This thickness is comparable to the thickness of the elastic lithosphere. The LID thickness is thinner than derived using isotropic or pseudo-isotropic procedures. A new model for average Earth is obtained which includes a thin LID. This model extends the fit of a PREM, type model to shorter period surface waves.     

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability.