Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events

While historically significant for ancient civilizations, the Indus basin is also known for its floods and complex anthropogenic management history. Resulting from years of modifications by the pre-British era Mughal rulers followed by the post-partition division of river waters among the two neighbors, India and Pakistan, Pakistan faces severe management and financial challenges of water management. This study investigates the intricacies arising from this complicated management doctrine for the lower Indus basin. A detailed remote sensing-based analysis of the significant floods to hit the lower Indus basin since 2000 has been provided. Flood years were identified, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the years 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016 were used to map their spatiotemporal extents. Almost all the flood water accumulated in the north is released in one river channel of the lower Indus basin. Further, the challenges were exacerbated due to the excessive rainfall in 2011 and 2012 in southeastern Sindh. A trend analysis of rainfall data shows an increase in the southern basin in the last 21 years, particularly toward the central plains and Sindh Province. The floodwater accumulated in the lower basin for as many as?~?425 days on average, stretching to?~?800 days of stagnancy in some places. The water stagnation period has been the highest in the river floodplain, highly populated and cultivated. The analyses of the current study suggest that the riverine channel has been better managed after the 2010 floods; however, the monsoon’s shift in 2011 and 2012 led to widespread disaster in low-lying regions of Sindh Province.

     

Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan

This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.     

A Paleogeographic and Depositional Model for the Neogene Fluvial Succession,Pishin Belt,Northwest Pakistan: Effect of Post Collisional Tectonics on Sedimentation in a Peripheral Foreland Setting

Detailed facies analysis of the Neogene successions of the Pishin Belt (Katawaz Basin) has enabled documentation of successive depositional systems and paleogeographic settings of the basin formed by the collision of the northwestern continental margin of the Indian Plate and the Afghan Block. During the Early Miocene, subaerial sedimentation started after the final closure of the Katawaz Remnant Ocean. Based on detailed field data, twelve facies were recognized in Neogene successions exposed in the Pishin Belt. These facies were further organized into four facies associations i.e. channels, crevasse splay, natural levee and floodplain facies associations. Facies associations and variations provided ample evidence to recognize a number of fluvial architectural components in the succession e.g., low‐sinuosity sandy braided river, mixed‐load meandering, high‐sinuosity meandering channels, single‐story sandstone and/or conglomerate channels, lateral accretion surfaces (point bars) and alluvial fans. Neogene sedimentation in the Pishin Belt was mainly controlled by active tectonism and thrusting in response to the oblique collision of the Indian Plate with the Afghan Block of the Eurasian Plate along the Chaman‐Nushki Fault. Post Miocene deformation of these formations successively caused them to contribute as an additional source terrain for the younger formations.     

Rock Mass Characterization and Support Assessment along Power Tunnel of Hydropower in Kohistan Area,KPK, Pakistan

This paper encompasses the engineering geological properties of rock mass along the power tunnel of hydropower in Kohistan, Khayber Pakhtun Khawa (KPK), Pakistan. The major geological units of the study area are Chilas complex (CC) and Gilgit complex (GC) that consists mostly of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Discontinuity surveys were conducted to classify the rock mass by utilizing rock mass rating (RMR) and tunneling quality index (Q) classification systems. RMR system involves collection of data for parameters of rock strength, RQD, spacing of discontinuities, condition of discontinuities, groundwater condition and Q system involves rock quality designation (RQD), joint roughness (J_r), joint sets (J_s), joint alteration (J_a), stress reduction factor (SRF) and joint water reduction (J_w). RMR values ranges from 46 to 66 (fair to good) for rock unit of Chilas complex (CC) and 50 to 58 (fair) for rock unit of Gilgit complex (GC). The evaluated values of tunnel quality by Q-system are 1.55 to 6.4 (poor to fair) for Chilas complex (CC) and 1.35 to 1.84 (poor) for Gilgit complex (GC). The required support along the tunnel route is also estimated by both classification systems. Unwedge program is used to analyze the unstable zones due to the intersection of different joint sets. Total 14 cases are analyzed in Unwedge from which 3 cases have failure potential with FOS less than 1. These failure potential blocks can become stable by applying further support of rock bolting and shotcrete layer.     

The Origin and MgCl<Subscript>2</Subscript>–NaCl Variations in an Athalassic Sag Pond: Insights from Chemical and Isotopic Data

The examination of past and new chemical–isotopic data (²H/¹H–¹⁸O/¹⁶O, ¹¹B/¹⁰B and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios) shows the meteoric origin of the Sawa Lake (Muthanna Governorate, Iraq) and its connection with the local aquifers, which feed the lake via the groundwater emerging from its floor through fault systems. The chemical and isotopic evaporation models are traced by geochemical computer codes by using a different composition of some potential inflows to the lake (e.g., the Euphrates River and Dammam aquifer). The main product of the chemical evaporation models is gypsum, as confirmed by the mineralogical examination of the sediment and the surrounding outcrops. A strong ¹⁸O–²H enrichment is a consequence of the evaporation effect in arid regions; δ¹⁸O–Cl models and δ¹¹B?=?+?23.4‰ exclude the contribution of any seawater-derived fluids. This latter value along with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.707989 suggests a mixed origin from the Eocene–Miocene aquifers. The isotope and chemical evaporation paths from the meteorically recharged sources match the lake composition. However, compositional switches from NaCl toward MgCl₂ occurred in the last decade and are related to post-drought periods, showing that the interaction of the recharging waters with the local soils (Na–Mg exchange and/or the leaching of the top layer salts) have a role in the chemical composition. This demonstrates that the lake is significantly influenced by climatic variations.     

Elastic wave velocity monitoring as an emerging technique for rainfall-induced landslide prediction

Landslides are recurring phenomena causing damages to private property, public facilities, and human lives. The need for an affordable instrumentation that can be used to provide an early warning of slope instability to enable the evacuation of vulnerable people, and timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure is self-evident. A new emerging technique that correlates soil moisture changes and deformations in slope surface by means of elastic wave propagation in soil was developed. This approach quantifies elastic wave propagation as wave velocity. To verify its applicability, a series of fixed and varied slope model tests, as well as a large scale model test, were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation, and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity with failure initiation, soil deformation was thus envisaged to have more significant effect on elastic wave velocity than water content. It is proposed that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. Based on these observations, expected operation of the elastic wave velocity monitoring system for landslide prediction in the field application is presented. Consequently, we conclude that the elastic wave velocity monitoring technique has the potential to contribute to landslide prediction.     

Microfacies analysis and diagenetic fabric of the Lockhart Limestone exposed near Taxila,Margalla Hill Range,Punjab, Pakistan

The microfacies analysis and diagenetic fabric of the Lockhart Limestone are studied in an outcrop section exposed in the Margalla Hill ranges. The Lockhart Limestone is predominantly composed of medium to thick bedded, nodular and occasionally brecciated, highly fossiliferous limestone with thin interbeds of marl and shale. On the basis of detailed petrographic investigations, four microfacies have been identified including bioclastic packstone, wackestone (siliciclastic bioclastic rich sub-microfacies), wackestone-packstone, and mud-wackestone. Based on the microfacies analysis, the Lockhart Limestone is interpreted to have been deposited in the fore-shoal mid-ramp, mid-ramp, and outer ramp depositional environments. The Paleocene age has been assigned to the Lockhart Limestone based on age diagnostic foraminifera, i.e., Miscellanea, Lockhartia, and Ranikothalia. The diagenetic fabric of the Lockhart Limestone is characterized by several diagenetic features such as micritization, neomorphism (aragonite to calcite transformation and development of microspar), compaction, pressure dissolution (microstylolites), and cementation (calcite-filled microfractures). Such diagenetic features are developed in marine, meteoric, and burial diagenetic settings. The Paleocene Lockhart Limestone of Pakistan shows analogous features to that of the Paleocene Zongpu Formation (Member-3) of the Gamba-Tingri Basin of southern Tibet based on the outcrop features, microscopic fabric, and depositional environment.     

Erosion potential assessment of watersheds through GIS<Emphasis Type="Bold">-</Emphasis>based hypsometric analysis: a case study of Kurram Tangi Dam

Sediment discharge due to soil and rock erosion within the watersheds is the major cause of siltation in water reservoirs. Siltation in reservoirs reduces the capacity for power production, irrigation water supply, and other domestic purposes. Hypsometric analysis has widely been used to identifying the geomorphic development stages (stabilized, equilibrium, and un-stable) to assess the erosion proneness of watersheds. In this study, watershed of Kurram Tangi Dam and its four sub-watersheds (SWs) were considered to determine their sediment discharge capacity through hypsometric analysis. The boundaries of watershed and sub-watersheds were delineated from Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The hypsometric parameters i.e., hypsometric integral (HI) and curves were generated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The HI values of SW-1 (0.41) and SW-2 (0.36) indicated that these two SWs were relatively more prone to erosion and contributed higher sediment discharge in Dam siltation. The results were validated through sampling the main drainage channel (Kurram River) to determine the sediment concentration at 12 sites during summer, winter, and spring seasons. Comparison of HI and sediment concentration of SWs presented high correlation (R²?=?0.87). The results emphasized the effective watershed management, extensive afforestation, and construction of silt-control structures at appropriate locations in sub-watersheds. This will ultimately maintain the water and power generation capacity as well as extending the life span of the Dam.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of temperature variability,trend, and magnitude in the Hindu Kush region using Monte Carlo and Sen’s slope approaches

The present study explores the spatial and temporal deviations in temperature using Monte Carlo (MC) and Sen’s slope (SS) approaches in the Hindu Kush (HK) region. Climate change holds sturdy association against the temperature trend that has generated adverse impacts in the form of floods. In this attempt, for trend analysis, temperature has been selected as a meteorological parameter. This study mainly focuses on exploring the tendency in average temperature with respect to time and the consequential flood recurrences in the region. For the current study, data regarding temperature were typically collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department. In the study region, there are a total of seven meteorological station falls namely Dir, Chitral, Drosh, Saidu, Malam Jabba, Kalam, and Timergara. The temperature time series data was calculated and analyzed using MC and SS approaches for trend detection in order to demonstrate the kind of fluctuation in the Hindu Kush region. The resultant analysis further revealed that in the meteorological station of Dir, a more significant positive trend (α?=?0.0001) was found in mean monthly maximum, minimum, and monthly normal temperature. Likewise, at Drosh, a positive trend is detected in mean monthly maximum (α?=?0.04), monthly minimum (α?=?0.003), and monthly average (α?=?0.0005). Moreover, at Saidu met station, there is also a trend detected in temperature sub-variables such as monthly maximum (α?=?0.0001) and monthly minimum (α?=?0.001). In addition to these, at Kalam, there is a temperature trend noted for monthly minimum (α?=?0.01) and monthly average (α?=?0.02). Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that there is no trend detected in the remaining stations, i.e., Chitral, Malam Jabba, Drosh, and Timergara. The overall analysis discovered that there is a sturdy relationship between climate change phenomenon and temperature variability. After using SS test to the temperature data of mean monthly maximum (TMMMax), the results explored that Kalam station grips the highest magnitude, i.e., Q?=?0.76; however, Timergara shows the lowermost, i.e., Q?=???0.34. For the monthly minimum temperature (TMMMin), at Kalam again, the highest value (Q?=?0.005) was detected; however, other stations revealed a negative trend, except Drosh which express no change in terms of magnitude. Similarly, in terms of monthly normal temperature (TMNor), Timergara station (Q?=???0.4) verified a negative trend magnitude and Malam Jabba station again trendless. Among all, the met station of Malam Jabba which holds an altitude of 2591 m is a hilly station just followed by Kalam having 2103 m height; however, Dir holds 1375 m height and the rest of the met stations show low elevation. The main reason for the temperature difference is the altitude of the study region.