Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2)

Part 1 of this study assessed the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT) applied an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. Several of the RPT models that were used predicted the mixing behaviour of the tracer in the complex channel flow to within an acceptable accuracy. If there is no uniqueness in the model structure which can be used to represent the true system to within the limitations of the available observations, then this implies an inherent degree of ambiguity in our knowledge of the physically based model structure. This suggests that we should be less forthright in the optimisation of each individual model structure, and perhaps investigate more of the parameter combinations for each model which yield feasible simulations of the system. An alternative fuzzy calibration technique is introduced which avoids the optimisation process and takes account of uncertainties in the model structure, parameter sets and observed data in prediction.     

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.     

Whipple telescope observations of LS I +61 303: 2004–2006

In this paper we present the results of the past two years observations on the galactic microquasar LS I +61 303 with the Whipple 10 m gamma-ray telescope. The recent MAGIC detection of the source between 200 GeV and 4 TeV suggests that the source is periodic with very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission linked to its orbital cycle. The entire 50-hour data set obtained with Whipple from 2004 to 2006 was analyzed with no reliable detection resulting. The upper limits obtained in the 2005–2006 season covered several of the same epochs as the MAGIC Telescope detections, albeit with lower sensitivity. Upper limits are placed on emission during the orbital phases of 0→0.1 and 0.8→1, phases which are not included in the MAGIC data set.      

Using Diurnal Temperature Signals to Infer Vertical Groundwater‐Surface Water Exchange

Heat is a powerful tracer to quantify fluid exchange between surface water and groundwater. Temperature time series can be used to estimate pore water fluid flux, and techniques can be employed to extend these estimates to produce detailed plan‐view flux maps. Key advantages of heat tracing include cost‐effective sensors and ease of data collection and interpretation, without the need for expensive and time‐consuming laboratory analyses or induced tracers. While the collection of temperature data in saturated sediments is relatively straightforward, several factors influence the reliability of flux estimates that are based on time series analysis (diurnal signals) of recorded temperatures. Sensor resolution and deployment are particularly important in obtaining robust flux estimates in upwelling conditions. Also, processing temperature time series data involves a sequence of complex steps, including filtering temperature signals, selection of appropriate thermal parameters, and selection of the optimal analytical solution for modeling. This review provides a synthesis of heat tracing using diurnal temperature oscillations, including details on optimal sensor selection and deployment, data processing, model parameterization, and an overview of computing tools available. Recent advances in diurnal temperature methods also provide the opportunity to determine local saturated thermal diffusivity, which can improve the accuracy of fluid flux modeling and sensor spacing, which is related to streambed scour and deposition. These parameters can also be used to determine the reliability of flux estimates from the use of heat as a tracer.     

Vertical circulation in the tropical atmosphere during extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation events

Scenarios for the development of large-scale vertical circulation anomalies during warm and cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are generalized based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1958-1998. Composite models of the cells of vertical circulation in the monsoon and trade-wind regions of the tropical Pacific are obtained for the first time for El Niño and La Niña separately. An unprecedented shift of the ascending branch of the zonal Walker circulation from the “maritime continent” of Indonesia to the east, to the central and eastern Pacific, was observed during the warm phase over the tropical Pacific; this shift was accompanied by an abrupt increase in the tropical cyclogenesis activity in the southern Pacific zone of convergence. On the contrary, during the cold phase, the ascending motions in the region of the summer Australian monsoon are subject to abrupt intensification. The reconstruction of the vertical meridional circulation during the warm phase manifested itself in the almost complete disappearance of the Hadley classic circulation over the central Pacific, characteristic of the trade-wind intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and in its replacement by the latitudinal monsoon circulation typical of the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean. During a cold phase, the Hadley circulation is both restored and intensified.     

Meteorology in Canada: A reaction to the rose report

The methods used in an earlier study focusing on the province of Ontario, Canada, were adapted for this current study to expand the study area over eastern Canada where the infrastructure is at risk of being impacted by freezing rain. To estimate possible impacts of climate change on future freezing rain events, a three-step process was used in the study: (1) statistical downscaling, (2) synoptic weather typing, and (3) future projections. A regression-based downscaling approach, constructed using different regression methods for different meteorological variables, was used to downscale the outputs of eight general circulation models to each of 42 hourly observing stations over eastern Canada. Using synoptic weather typing (principal components analysis, a clustering procedure, discriminant function analysis), the freezing rain-related weather types under historical climate (1958–2007) and future downscaled climate conditions (2016–2035, 2046–2065, 2081–2100) were identified for all selected stations. The potential changes in the frequency of future daily freezing rain events can be projected quantitatively by comparing future and historical frequencies of freezing rain-related weather types.

The modelled results show that eastern Canada could experience more freezing rain events late this century during the coldest months (i.e., December to February) than the averaged historical conditions. Conversely, during the warmest months of the study season (i.e., November and April in the southern regions, October in the northern regions), eastern Canada could experience less freezing rain events late this century. The increase in the number of daily freezing rain events in the future for the coldest months is projected to be progressively greater from south to north or from southwest to northeast across eastern Canada. The relative decrease in magnitude of future daily freezing rain events in the warmest months is projected to be much less than the relative increase in magnitude in the coldest months.     

Petrographische und Kalium-Argon-Untersuchungen an basischen tertiären Vulkaniten zwischen Westerwald und Vogelsberg

Between the upper tertiary volcanic areas of Westerwald and Vogelsberg (central Western Germany) occur more than 40 isolated tertiary volcanic dikes, eroded necks, plugs and domes. Twelve of these volcanic rocks have been investigated petrographically and chemically and classified by means of their modal and chemical composition. Additional modal analyses have been performed on seven other volcanics. On seventeen volcanic occurences K-Ar-whole rock age determinations have been made. The K-Ar age determinations yield- with the exception of an olivine-nephelinite — values between 27 and 15 Ma. Regarding the known intervals of volcanic activities of the Westerwald- and Voge1sberg-areas, most of the examined volcanics can be related genetically with one of the adjacent volcanic areas. There seems to be no geographical overlapping of volcanics showing Westerwaldages and Vogelsberg-ages. A possible influence of excess-Ar-bearing phases (e. g. mantle xenoliths) and an Ar-loss of constituent matter of the groundmass have been estimated by additional age determinations of enriched samples. These influences — partially compensating each other — may shift the K-Ar whole rock age to a maximum of 5 % and thus do not exceed the dimension of the standard deviations. A distinct NNE-SSW-striking fault in the region between Marburg and Gießen is situated parallel with the eastern border of the “Rheinisches Schiefergebirge”. Volcanics showing Westerwald-age and Vogelsberg-age respectively reach this fault, but obviously do not overlap it. Relations between rock-type an rock age, as it has been observed for the volcanics of the northern Hessian Depression (Kreuzer et al. 1973;Wedepohl 1982) cannot be proved certainly. On the other hand, similar to the basaltic rocks of the northern Hessian Depression, the youngest volcanic product is an olivine-nephelinite (9 Ma).     

The southern agglomeration zone of the GDR — Regional structure and development

Agglomeration areas in the GDR are those regions, which are characterized by an above average level of regional concentration of productive forces and their conditions of reproduction. The economic potential concentrated in these regions represents a large part of the national economy. It is possible to describe the territorial structure of these agglomeration areas by general indices (agglomeration core — agglomeration field — agglometation fringe; polycentric node-band-structure), but also the individual features of each one of these regions are to be attended. They are expressed for the first time by several forms of localization of plants and by the structure of settlements and settlement networks. The present main tendencies in the development of the agglomeration regions are:

They succeeded in minimizing the regional disparities of productivity between different agglomeration regions and within them, and in stabilizing the economic position of these regions by systematic measures for investment and rationalization and the hereby influenced structural changes.

At present and up to 1990 the completion of housing programme is of foremost importance by which the main activities will shift from the urban fringe to the centres of the cities; provincial towns and smaller settlements will also participate in this programme.

The main target of these activities is to remove imperfect structures and other burning problems of the agglomeration regions step by step. Geographical Institutes are dealing with the management of these tasks too.     

An Intercomparison of NO2 and OClO Measurements at Arrival Heights, Antarctica during Austral Spring 1996

For several years NO2 and OClO, two species important to understanding ozone destruction in the Antarctic stratosphere, have been measured at Arrival Heights, Antarctica by two groups: New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and the NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Using data independently collected by these two groups during the Austral spring of 1996, it is shown that the two data sets are in extremely close agreement. Besides offering validation of the instrumentation and analysis techniques of both groups, this result provides confidence in the more complete history of these species gained by combining the two data sets.     

基于高光谱遥感数据提取森林结构参数的研究

以位于三峡库区的龙门河森林自然保护区为研究区,综合利用线性光谱混合模型和几何光学模型,基于高光谱遥感数据提取森林结构参数是本文研究的重点。在研究区地面调查数据的基础上,通过高光谱数据和混合光谱分解法,获得反演几何光学模型所需的四分量参数,根据背景光照分量与森林植被冠层各参数间的关系,反演得到森林冠层郁闭度及平均冠幅的定量分布图,并利用37个野外实测样本进行结果验证。