Frost risk mapping for landscape planning: A methodology

Summary Minimum air temperatures were measured during three winters with a network of stations in open, undulating terrain. It was observed that the change in minimum air temperature with elevation could be predicted from mean nighttime windspeed, total nighttime net radiation loss and a hill-top reference minimum temperature. It was also found that the deviation of temperatures at individual sites could be predicted from a local terrain parameter which reflects the extent of cold air accumulations. Thus a methodology for frost risk mapping has been developed which is based on regional weather dataand local terrain analysis. This paper describes the model and illustrates the regional weather and terrain effects with three-dimensional block diagrams.With 8 Figures     

Magnetic Anisotropy as an Aid to Identifying CRM and DRM in Red Sedimentary Rocks

To further evaluate the potential of magnetic anisotropy techniques for determining the origin of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) in sedimentary rocks, several new remanence anisotropy measurement techniques were explored. An accurate separation of the remanence anisotropy of magnetite and hematite in the same sedimentary rock sample was the goal.In one technique, Tertiary red and grey sedimentary rock samples from the Orera section (Spain) were exposed to 13 T fields in 9 different orientations. In each orientation, alternating field (af) demagnetization was used to separate the magnetite and hematite contributions of the high field isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM). Tensor subtraction was used to calculate the magnetite and hematite anisotropy tensors. Geologically interpretable fabrics did not result, probably because of the presence of goethite which contributes to the IRM. In the second technique, also applied to samples from Orera, an anisotropy of anhysteretic remanence (AAR) was applied in af fields up to 240 mT to directly measure the fabric of the magnetite in the sample. IRMs applied in 2 T fields followed by 240 mT af demagnetization, and thermal demagnetization at 90°C to remove the goethite contribution, were used to independently measure the hematite fabric in the same samples. This approach gave geologically interpretable results with minimum principal axes perpendicular to bedding, suggesting that the hematite and magnetite grains in the Orera samples both carry a depositional remanent magnetization (DRM). In a third experiment, IRMs applied in 13 T fields were used to measure the magnetic fabric of samples from the Dome de Barrot area (France). These samples had been demonstrated to have hematite as their only magnetic mineral. The fabrics that resulted were geologically interpretable, showing a strong NW-SE horizontal lineation consistent with AMS fabrics measured in the same samples. These fabrics suggest that the rock's remanence may have been affected by strain and could have originated as a DRM or a CRM.Our work shows that it is important to account for the presence of goethite when using high field IRMs to measure the remanence anisotropy of hematite-bearing sedimentary rocks. It also shows that very high magnetic fields (>10 T) may be used to measure the magnetic fabric of sedimentary rocks with highly coercive magnetic minerals without complete demagnetization between each position, provided that the field magnetically saturates the rock.     

Age and source material of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif,East Sayan

The REE distribution patterns and Nd whole-rock and mineral isotope ratios of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif enabled us to propose a multistage history for its evolution at 1410 and 875 Ma. These stages reflect the magmatic evolution of the Siberian paleocontinent margin during the Late Precambrian. The age of metamorphism of the massif during collision and accretion in the Early Paleozoic (∼500 Ma) was obtained based on a Sm-Nd mineral isochron from rheomorphic veined albitite. The Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of rocks from the Kingash massif suggest mantle sources for picritic and basic magmas, which are thought to have originated by mixing of different proportions of depleted (PREMA or DM) and enriched (EM) melts. The initial isotope ratios of the parental melts transformed during interaction with Sr-rich material from the host metasedimentary complexes.     

Relationships between marginal thrusting and movement on major,internal shear zones in the Northern Highland Caledonides,Scotland

The development of the syn-metamorphic Sgurr Beag slide zone, a major ductile shear zone of initially low dip, caused at least 50 km north-western thrust displacement of part of the internal metamorphic complex of the Northern Highland Caledonides of Scotland. Initiation of the zone, and movements upon it, were earlier than formation of the marginal Moine Thrust zone. Movement on the zone followed but overlapped the peak Caledonian metamorphism and the mid to high amphibolite facies mineral assemblages, fabrics and structures produced during the development of the slide zone and those surviving from earlier events, were reworked under greenschist facies conditions during mylonitization associated with initiation of the Moine Thrust zone. Displacements on the slide zone and thrust movements were separated by emplacement of a regional suite of pegmatites and a considerable change of metamorphic grade. Thus, they may not constitute members of a progressive sequence of Caledonian thrusts formed over a short time interval. Rather, preliminary isotopic data may imply an interval of c. 25 Ma between movement on the slide zone and final, ductile translation along the Moine Thrust zone.     

Recent developments in technological forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.     

Structural and stratigraphical constraints on the kinematics history of the Southern Tan–Lu Fault Zone during the Mesozoic Anhui Province, China

The Tan–Lu Fault Zone (TLFZ) extends in a NNE–SSW direction for more than 2000 km in Eastern China. It has been considered either as a major sinistral strike-slip fault, as a suture zone or as a normal fault. We have conducted a structural analysis of the southern segment of this fault zone (STLFZ) in the Anhui Province. The ages (Triassic to Palaeocene) of the formations affected by the faults have been re-appraised taking into account recent stratigraphical studies to better constraint the ages of the successive stages of the kinematics of the STLFZ. Subsequently, the kinematics of the faults is presented in terms of strain/stress fields by inversion of the striated fault set data. Finally, the data are discussed in the light of the results obtained by previous workers.We propose the following history of the STLFZ kinematics during the Mesozoic. At the time of collision, a  NNE orientated Tan–Lu margin probably connected two margins located north of the Dabie and Sulu collision belts. During the Middle–Late Triassic, the SCB has been obliquely subducted below the NCB along this margin which has acted as a compressional transfer zone between the Dabie and Sulu continental subduction zones. The STLFZ has been initiated during the Early Jurassic and has acted as a sinistral transform fault during the Jurassic, following which the NCB/SCB collision stopped. A  NW-trending extension related to metamorphic domes was active during the basal Early Cretaceous ( 135–130 Ma); it has been followed by a NW–SE compression and a NE–SW tension during the middle–late Early Cretaceous ( 127 to  105 Ma, possibly  95 Ma); at that time the TLFZ was a sinistral transcurrent fault within the eastern part of the Asian continent. During the Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene, the STLFZ was a normal fault zone under a WNW–ESE tension.     

The problem of inherited Ar* in dating impact glass by the Ar/Ar method: Evidence from the Tswaing impact crater (South Africa)

The Tswaing meteorite impact crater is a 1.13 km diameter structure located in the 2.05 Ga Nebo granite of the Bushveld Complex. The impact age had previously been determined by fission track dating to 220 ± 104 ka. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step-heating and total fusion experiments performed on single- and multi-grain impact glass aliquots gave apparent ages ranging from 1.0 ± 0.3 Ma to 204 ± 6 Ma. These “ages” indicate that the radiogenic Ar derived from the target rocks has not been completely degassed as a result of the impact process, despite fusion of the target material. Results of step-heating experiments imply that the trapped within the glass is located in two distinct reservoirs thought to be the glass matrix and fluid/vapor inclusions (or un-melted residual clasts). Calculations assuming an age of 0.2 ± 0.1 Ma for Tswaing (fission track data) reveal that the amount of inherited ⁴⁰Ar*() relative to the pre-impact concentration varies from 0.015% to 4.15%. The spread defined by likely reflects the various quench rates experienced by the glass, most certainly due to the pre-impact position of the sample relative to the center of the crater. We compare the influence of on the apparent ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determination of five impact structures. Our calculations show that the main characteristic controlling the age offset (for a given proportion of ) is the age difference between the impact and the target rocks (i.e., the ⁴⁰Ar* concentration in the target rock). The buffer effect for a given crater structure can be predicted knowing the age of the basement and having a rough estimation of the age of the crater structure itself. The occurrence of is likely influenced by (1) the degree of polymerization (i.e., silicate structure complexity) of the target rock and presumably related to the diffusivity of Ar in the melt and glass, (2) the Ar partial pressure at the grain boundary, (3) the quantity of energy involved in the impact, and (4) the porosity of the target rocks. For glass that inevitably suffers inherited and/or excess ⁴⁰Ar*, the use of the inverse isochron technique can be appropriate but should be applied with careful statistical treatment.     

A very large scale GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian sandstone aquifer in Eastern Sahara (Egypt,northern Sudan and eastern Libya)

A three-dimensional GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the eastern Sahara was developed and calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer to climatic changes that occurred during the last 25,000 years. The simulation results indicated that the groundwater in this aquifer was formed by infiltration during the wet periods 20,000 and 5,000 years b.p. The recharge of groundwater due to regional groundwater flow from more humid areas in the south was excluded. It also indicates that the Nubian Aquifer System is a fossil aquifer, which had been in an unsteady state condition for the last 3,000 years.

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Resumen Fue desarrollado un modelo de flujo de agua subterránea en tres dimensiones, basado en un SIG, para el Acuífero Arenisca Nubian en el Sahara Oriental, el cual fue calibrado para condiciones de estado estacionario y transitorio. El modelo se usó para simular la respuesta del acuífero a los cambios climáticos que ocurrieron durante los últimos 25000 años. Los resultados de esta simulación indicaron que el agua subterránea en este acuífero, se formó por infiltración, durante los períodos húmedos que hubo hace 20000 y 5000 años, antes del presente. Fue excluida la recarga del acuífero debida a un flujo regional de agua subterránea proveniente de áreas con un clima más húmedo en el sur. El modelo también muestra, que el Sistema Acuífero Nubian es un acuífero fósil, el cual ha permanecido en una condición de estado no estacionario, durante los últimos tres mil años.

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Résumé Pour laquifère gréseux Nubien de Sahara -Est on a mis au points un modèle tridimensionnel, basé sur GIS. Le modèle a été calibré tant pour lécoulement stationnaire que pour lécoulement transitoire. On a simulé après la réponse de laquifère aux changements climatiques des derniers 25000 ans. Les résultats des simulations indiquent que la nappe a été rechargée par des infiltrations pendant une période humide qui sétend 5000 et 20000 ans, dès temps actuel. On na pas pris en compte la recharge de laquifère par la zone plus humide située dans sa partie sud. Le modèle indique aussi que leau de laquifère Nubien est une eau fossile qui a eu un écoulement transitoire pendant les derniers 3000 ans.

     

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