The Death of Compact Binary Stars

Merging rates for compact binaries (double neutron stars or black holes) are calculated based on modern concepts of binary star evolution. It is found that the first laser interferometers, with rms sensitivities of 10-21 at a frequency of 100 Hz, can detect 10-700 black holes and only 1 neutron star coalescences in a 1-year integration time. The implications of evolutionary effects for the cosmological origin of gamma ray bursts are also discussed.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.     

Chemical composition of waters and the phytoplankton of the lakes within the delta of the Selenga river

Field observations showed that the characteristics of chemical composition of waters and the development of plankton algae in the lakes within the delta of the Selenga river are determined by their flowage. The most open Lake Nekipelovskoe communicates with the Selenga outlets throughout a year, and Lake Zavernyaikha only at the period of an open channel. Lake Semenovskoe and Lake Khlystov Zaton are located in the islands and are isolated from the outlets. According to composition of main ions, the lakes under investigation refer to the hydrocarbonate class, the calcium group. The sum of ions in the water of Lake Nekipelovskoe approaches the one in the Selenga (86?221 mg/dm³), and the highest sums of ions were recorded in the wintertime in the lakes isolated from the outlets (446?743 mg/dm³). The lakes of the delta are characterized by a high trophicity. The maximum concentrations of total phosphorus in Lake Nekipelovskoe and Lake Zavernyaikha were 68 and 122 μg mg/dm³, and in Lake Semenovskoe and Lake Khlystov Zaton ?0.8 and ?0.63 μg mg/dm³, respectively. The most intense development of algae is observed in Lake Zavernyaikha, which is due to the high population of Baikal endemics. Lake Zavernyaikha showed a close negative correlation between the concentration of NO ₃ ^? , mineral phosphorus and phytoplankton biomass; the correlation coefficient was ?0.8 and ?0.63, respectively. The lakes exhibited increased contents readily hydrolysable organic matter, and a decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration in winter; hydrogen sulfide was repeatedly recorded in Lake Khlystov Zaton. The water quality in the lakes during the springtime varies from “quite clean” to “weakly polluted”; at low-water periods, especially in winters, it can drop to the category of “exceedingly dirty”. The water quality of the Selenga can be influenced by the lakes during spring floods when material accumulated during the wintertime is transported to the river outlets and further to Lake Baikal.     

Axially-symmetric viscous fluid interacting with the gravitational field

The problem of an axially-symmetric viscous fluid interacting with the gravitational field has been investigated. Exact solutions have been obtained for the pressure and density of the viscous fluid. Physical interpretation of the solutions in respect of the expansion factor, acceleration components reality conditions of the distribution, etc., have been made.     

Variability of parameters of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer maximum in the quiet midlatitude ionosphere under low solar activity: 1. Statistical properties

Results of statistical analysis of the properties of variability of F2-layer maximum parameters (critical frequency foF2 and the height hmF2) in quiet midlatitude ionosphere under low solar activity in the daytime (1000–1500 LT) and nighttime (2200–0300 LT) hours are presented on the basis of Irkutsk station data for 2007–2008. It is found that the distribution density of δfoF2 could be presented as consisting of two distinctly different normal laws of this distribution, one of which corresponds to weak (|δfoF2| < 10%) fluctuations in foF2 and the other corresponds to strong (30% > |δfoF2| > 10%) fluctuations. Weak fluctuations in foF2 to a substantial degree are related to ionospheric variability at times less of than 1–3 h and determine the δfoF2 variability in the daytime hours. Strong fluctuations in foF2 are mainly related to day-to-day variability of the ionosphere at a fixed local time, the variability increasing by approximately a factor of 3 during the transition from day to night and determining the δfoF2 variability in the nighttime hours. The distribution density of ΔhmF2 is close to the normal distribution law. An interpretation of the different character of the distribution densities of δfoF2 and ΔhmF2 is given.     

Intercalibration of Solar Soft X-Ray Broad Band Measurements from SOLRAD 9 through GOES-12

The two-band soft X-ray observations of solar flares made by the Naval Research Laboratory’s (NRL) SOLar RADiation (SOLRAD) satellites and by the Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites (GOES) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center have produced a nearly continuous record of solar flare observations over a period of more than forty years (1969 – 2011). However, early GOES observations (i.e., GOES-2) and later (GOES-8 and subsequent missions) are not directly comparable due to changes in the conversion of measured currents to integrated fluxes in the two spectral bands that were adopted: 0.05 – 0.3 (or 0.4) nm, which we refer to as XS and 0.1 – 0.8 nm (XL). Furthermore, additional flux adjustments, using overlapping data sets, were imposed to provide consistency of flare-flux levels from mission to mission. This article evaluates the results of these changes and compares experimental GOES-8/GOES-2 results with changes predicted from modeled flare spectra. The factors by which recent GOES observations can be matched to GOES-2 are then optimized by adapting a technique first used to extrapolate GOES X-ray fluxes above saturation using ionospheric VLF radio phase enhancements. A nearly 20% increase in published GOES-8 XL data would be required to match to GOES-2 XL fluxes, which were based on observed flare spectra. On the other hand, a factor of 1.07 would match GOES-8 and later flat-spectrum 0.1 – 0.8 nm fluxes to GOES-2 XL if the latter data were converted to a flat-spectrum basis. Finally, GOES-8 observations are compared to solar soft X-ray estimates made concurrently with other techniques. Published GOES-8 0.1 – 0.8 nm fluxes are found to be 0.59 of the mean of these other determinations. Rescaling GOES to a realistic flare spectrum and removing a 30% downward adjustment applied to the GOES-8 measurements during initial data processing would place GOES-8 and later GOES XL fluxes at 0.94 of this XL mean. GOES-2 on the same scale would lie at about 0.70 of this mean. Significant uncertainties in the absolute levels of broad band soft X-ray fluxes still remain, however.     

Wiener optimal filtering of GRACE data

We present a spatial averaging method for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity-field solutions based on the Wiener optimal filtering. The optimal filter is designed from the least-square minimization of the difference between the desired and filtered signals. It requires information about the power spectra of the desired gravitational signal and the contaminating noise, which is inferred from the average GRACE degree-power spectrum. We show that the signal decreases with increasing spherical harmonic degree j with approximately j^−b, where b = 1.5 for GRACE data investigations. This is termed the Second Kaula rule of thumb for temporal variations of the Earth’s gravity field. The degree power of the noise increases, in the logarithmic scale, linearly with increasing j. The Wiener optimal filter obtained for the signal model with b = 1.5 closely corresponds to a Gaussian filter with a spatial half width of 4° (∼440 km). We find that the filtered GRACE gravity signal is relatively insensitive to the exponent b of the signal model, which indicates the robustness of Wiener optimal filtering. This is demonstrated using the GFZ-GRACE gravity-field solution for April 2004.     

Groundwater Resources and Their Role in Water Supply to Crimea

The processes of formation and distribution of the resources of fresh groundwater and surface water in the territory of Crimea Peninsula are considered. Water availability in the natural–historic and administrative regions of the republic is characterized. The proportions between different categories of groundwater resources are shown with their role in water supply to Crimea taken into account. The presentday development of groundwater resources is analyzed and the possible increase in water consumption meeting geoecological requirements is substantiated.     

Star formation and figure rotation in the early-type galaxy NGC 2974

We present Galaxy Evolution Explorer ( GALEX ) far-ultraviolet (FUV) and near-ultraviolet (NUV) imaging of the nearby early-type galaxy NGC 2974, along with complementary ground-based optical imaging. In the ultraviolet, the galaxy reveals a central spheroid-like component and a newly discovered complete outer ring of radius 6.2 kpc, with suggestions of another partial ring at an even larger radius. Blue FUV–NUV and UV-optical colours are observed in the centre of the galaxy and from the outer ring outwards, suggesting young stellar populations (≲1 Gyr) and recent star formation in both locations. This is supported by a simple stellar population model which assumes two bursts of star formation, allowing us to constrain the age, mass fraction and surface mass density of the young component pixel by pixel. Overall, the mass fraction of the young component appears to be just under 1 per cent (lower limit, uncorrected for dust extinction). The additional presence of a nuclear and an inner ring (radii 1.4 and 2.9 kpc, respectively), as traced by [O  iii ] emission, suggests ring formation through resonances. All three rings are consistent with a single pattern speed of  78 ± 6  km s⁻¹ kpc⁻¹, typical of S0 galaxies and only marginally slower than expected for a fast bar if traced by a small observed surface brightness plateau. This thus suggests that star formation and morphological evolution in NGC 2974 at the present epoch are primarily driven by a rotating asymmetry (probably a large-scale bar), despite the standard classification of NGC 2974 as an E4 elliptical.