Long-term estimates of parameters of the vertical distribution of cloud layers from atmospheric radiosounding data

Based on the global aerological dataset and on the method for determination of the boundaries and amount of cloudiness using the profiles of temperature and humidity obtained from the atmospheric radiosounding data [23], the estimates are computed for the parameters of atmospheric temperature- humidity separation into cloud and intercloud layers from the surface to the height of 10 km. The base and top of cloud layers and their total thickness and frequency are selected as layering parameters. The computations are based on the data for the observational period of 1964-1998. To specify the spatiotemporal features of atmospheric layering, long-term geographic distributions of mean values and standard deviations of the mentioned parameters are constructed for January and July, and the amplitude of their variations is determined.     

Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.     

Verification of the multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs

A multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs was developed. It describes transport of radioactive substances in water and in bed sediments taking into account sorbtion of radionuclides on suspended particles. The model provides higher resolution than simplified chamber models do. At the same time, unlike complex two- or three-dimensional dynamic models, it does not require hard-to-obtain data such as detailed data on bathymetry, currents and winds. The model was included into the Sybilla program code that was developed in the framework of the Rosatom project called PRORYV. The model was verified against the observed data on the contamination of the Kiev Reservoir with ¹³⁷Cs in 1986.     

Variability of atmospheric circulation under the climate change in West Siberia in the late 20th–early 21st centuries

The estimates of spatiotemporal variability of climatic parameters in West Siberia are obtained over the period of 1976-2014. It is revealed that this variability is affected by the parameters of atmospheric circulation such as wind speed components, relative vorticity, and large-scale circulation indices. It is found that in winter the warming changed into the cooling that is particularly associated with the change in atmospheric circulation patterns described by the SCAND index.     

Ozone content over the Russian Federation in the second quarter of 2016

The review is compiled on the basis of the operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory. The monitoring system uses the data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is under the operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, the United States). The basic TO observation data are generalized for each month of the second quarter of 2016 and for the quarter as a whole. The data of routine observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and Crimea are also presented.     

Circulation anomalies in the atmospheric centers of action during the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño

Based on the statistical analysis the teleconnections between circulation anomalies in the atmospheric centers of action and sea surface temperature anomalies are revealed for two types of El Niño. It is demonstrated that for the Eastern Pacific El Niño stronger teleconnections are registered in the Northern Hemisphere whereas the response to the Central Pacific El Niño is much stronger in the Southern Hemisphere. The Central Pacific El Niño is characterized by the more rapid signal propagation from the tropical zone to distant regions. In some cases the pattern of interaction with the atmospheric circulation considerably differs for two types of El Niño that defines differences in the fields of weather anomalies.     

Climate changes in atmospheric radiation parameters from the MSU meteorological observatory data

Variations in radiation fluxes and the factors that define them and their redistribution in the atmosphere are analyzed using the data of long-term ground-based measurements at the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. It is demonstrated that since the middle of the 1990s trends in many atmospheric radiation parameters have changed as compared to the trends observed in the previous years. For some parameters the trends are significant, are kept for a long period of time, and. hence, can be considered as climate changes. The potential effects of these changes on the regional warming are assessed.     

Intense mesocyclones in the Black Sea region

The statistical study of intense mesoscale cyclones formed in the Black Sea region in 1979-2013 is carried out using the surface wind data of the RegCM climate model. Such cyclone parameters as intensity, lifetime, area, height, and trajectories over the sea as well as the place and time of origin are considered. The distribution of mesocyclones by months and times of day is considered. The obtained results are compared with the results of a statistical study on the Black Sea mesocyclones based on the PRECIS climate model. Possible causes for differences in data on the intensity and number of mesocyclones simulated by RegCM and PRECIS models are considered.     

Eddies in the ocean and atmosphere: Identification by satellite imagery

The results are presented of using a new approach that helps to detect and compute the parameters of eddies in the ocean and tropical cyclones in the atmosphere based on satellite imagery. The approach is based on the concept of dominant orientation of thermal contrasts (DOTC). DOTC is an angle of the statistically significant orientation of brightness contrast in the specified vicinity of the image. DOTC highly correlates with the directions of flows; it is a base for construction of models for identification of eddy motions, namely, synoptic eddies in the oceans and tropical cyclones in the atmosphere. The model-based identification of one or another eddy allows estimating such parameters as the center position, shape, size, and sign (cyclone or anticyclone) of the eddy, and the size of the tropical cyclone eye. Based on the proposed approach, technologies of automatic identification and monitoring of oceanic eddies and tropical cyclones are developed. The results of the practical use of these technologies are presented for the recent years.     

An experimental study of amphibole stability in low-pressure granitic magmas and a revised Al-in-hornblende geobarometer

We report new experimental data on the composition of magmatic amphiboles synthesised from a variety of granite (sensu lato) bulk compositions at near-solidus temperatures and pressures of 0.8–10 kbar. The total aluminium content (Al^tot) of the synthetic calcic amphiboles varies systematically with pressure (P), although the relationship is nonlinear at low pressures (<2.5 kbar). At higher pressures, the relationship resembles that of other experimental studies, which suggests of a general relationship between Al^tot and P that is relatively insensitive to bulk composition. We have developed a new Al-in-hornblende geobarometer that is applicable to granitic rocks with the low-variance mineral assemblage: amphibole + plagioclase (An_15–80) + biotite + quartz + alkali feldspar + ilmenite/titanite + magnetite + apatite. Amphibole analyses should be taken from the rims of grains, in contact with plagioclase and in apparent textural equilibrium with the rest of the mineral assemblage at temperatures close to the haplogranite solidus (725 ± 75 °C), as determined from amphibole–plagioclase thermometry. Mean amphibole rim compositions that meet these criteria can then be used to calculate P (in kbar) from Al^tot (in atoms per formula unit, apfu) according to the expression:

$${\textit{P }}\left( {\text{kbar}} \right) = 0.5 + 0.331\left( 8 \right) \times {\text{Al}}^{\text{tot}} + 0.995\left( 4 \right) \times \left( {{\text{Al}}^{\text{tot}} } \right)^{2}$$

This expression recovers equilibration pressures of our calibrant dataset, comprising both new and published experimental and natural data, to within ±16 % relative uncertainty. An uncertainty of 10 % relative for a typical Al^tot value of 1.5 apfu translates to an uncertainty in pressure estimate of 0.5 kbar, or 15 % relative. Thus the accuracy of the barometer expression is comparable to the precision with which near-solidus amphibole rim composition can be characterised.