Past imperfect, future tense: Archaeology and development

Archaeological sites are valuable nonrenewable resources and they are being destroyed rapidly by modern development projects of all kinds, worldwide. The contextual information in these sites could tell surprising and valuable stories of human behavior over an enormous sweep of time and might contribute to a better future. Archaeologists’ experience of site destruction and their recent efforts to work with local communities toward alternatives to site destruction may offer examples for others concerned with the treatment of nonrenewable resources     

A record of accelerated erosion in the recent sediments of Blelham Tarn in the English Lake district

Two frozen cores from Blelham Tarn were subsampled and measured using mineral magnetic, loss-on-ignition (LOI), radiometric, granulometric and diatom analyses. A detailed chronology was established using varves, radioisotopes and diatoms. This has enabled an accurately dated reconstruction of sedimentation over the past forty years. Despite a large increase in lake productivity, evidence suggests that the observed exponential increase in sedimentation rates can be attributed to erosion within the catchment. The predominant sediment source has been identified as surface soil. A comparison between the trend of accelerated sedimentation and the record of increased sheep stocking density for the area within which the most of the catchment lies, as well as observations of contemporary surface processes within the catchment, both suggest that much of the recent erosion is a direct response to increased pressure from sheep grazing.     

Neural dynamic modelling on earthquake magnitude series

Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data.     

New palaeogeographic and lake-level reconstructions of Lake Tanganyika: implications for tectonic, climatic and biological evolution in a rift lake

Palaeogeographic and lake-level reconstructions provide powerful tools for evaluating competing scenarios of biotic, climatic and geological evolution within a lake basin. Here we present new reconstructions for the northern Lake Tanganyika subbasins, based on reflection seismic, core and outcrop data. Reflection seismic radiocarbon method (RSRM) age estimates provide a chronological model for these reconstructions, against which yet to be obtained age dates based on core samples can be compared. A complex history of hydrological connections and changes in shoreline configuration in northern Lake Tanganyika has resulted from a combination of volcanic doming, border fault evolution and climatically induced lake-level fluctuations. The stratigraphic expression of lake-level highstands and lowstands in Lake Tanganyika is predictable and cyclic (referred to here as Capart Cycles), but in a pattern that differs profoundly from the classic Van Houten cycles of some Newark Supergroup rift basins. This difference results from the extraordinary topographic relief of the Western Rift lakes, coupled with the rapidity of large-scale lake-level fluctuations. Major unconformity surfaces associated with Lake Tanganyika lowstands may have corresponded with high-latitude glacial maxima throughout much of the mid- to late Pleistocene.
Rocky shorelines along the eastern side of the present-day Ubwari Peninsula (Zaire) appear to have had a much more continuous existence as littoral rock habitats than similar areas along the north-western coastline of the lake (adjacent to the Uvira Border Fault System), which in turn are older than the rocky shorelines of the north-east coast of Burundi. This model of palaeogeographic history will be of great help to biologists trying to clarify the evolution of endemic invertebrates and fish in the northern basin of Lake Tanganyika.
     

The Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 (M= 6.6): source characteristics and tectonic implications

An analysis of the Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 ( M = 6.6), based on teleseismic and near-source data, shows that it was a normal-faulting, intermediate-depth ( H = 50 ± 5 km) event. It was located about 30 km inland, within the subducted Cocos plate. The preferred fault plane has an azimuth of 130°, a dip of 79° and a rake of −86°. The rupture consisted of two subevents which were separated in time by about 2 s, with the second subevent occurring downdip of the first. The measured stress drop was relatively high, requiring a Δσ of about a kilobar to explain the high-frequency level of the near-source spectra. A rough estimate of the thickness of the seismogenic part of the oceanic lithosphere below Zihuatanejo, based on the depth and the rupture extent of this event, is 40 km.
This event and the Oaxaca earthquake of 1931 January 15 ( M = 7.8) are the two significant normal-faulting, intermediate-depth shocks whose epicentres are closest to the coast. Both of these earthquakes were preceded by several large to great shallow, low-angle thrust earthquakes, occurring updip. The observations in other subduction zones show just the opposite: normal-faulting events precede, not succeed, updip, thrust shocks. Indeed, the thrust events, soon after their occurrence, are expected to cause compression in the slab, thus inhibiting the occurrence of normal-faulting events. To explain the occurrence of the Zihuatanejo earthquake, we note that the Cocos plate, after an initial shallow-angle subduction, unbends and becomes subhorizontal. In the region of the unbending, the bottom of the slab is in horizontal extension. We speculate that the large updip seismic slip during shallow, low-angle thrust events increases the buckling of the slab, resulting in an incremental tensional stress at the bottom of the slab and causing normal-faulting earthquakes. This explanation may also hold for the 1931 Oaxaca event.     

Seismic anisotropy within the uppermost mantle of southern Germany

This paper presents an updated interpretation of seismic anisotropy within the uppermost mantle of southern Germany. The dense network of reversed and crossing refraction profiles in this area made it possible to observe almost 900 traveltimes of the P_n phase that could be effectively used in a time-term analysis to determine horizontal velocity distribution immediately below the Moho. For 12 crossing profiles, amplitude ratios of the P_n phase compared to the dominant crustal phase were utilized to resolve azimuthally dependent velocity gradients with depth. A P -wave anisotropy of 3–4 per cent in a horizontal plane immediately below the Moho at a depth of 30 km, increasing to 11 per cent at a depth of 40 km, was determined. For the axis of the highest velocity of about 8.03 km s⁻¹ at a depth of 30 km a direction of N31°F was obtained. The azimuthal dependence of the observed P_n amplitude is explained by an azimuth-dependent sub-Moho velocity gradient decreasing from 0.06 s⁻¹ in the fast direction to 0 s⁻¹ in the slow direction of horizontal P -wave velocity. From the seismic results in this study a petrological model suggesting a change of modal composition and percentage of oriented olivine with depth was derived.