探测冰盖和多年冻土层的融冰探头研发

The exploration of ice sheets by melting vertical holes into the ground has some tradition in terrestrial glaciology. Such probes have been used since the 1960's to investigate the vertical structure of the ice in Greenland and Antarctica and in alpine glaciers. In this paper we look into the possibility to develop similar devices for use on extraterrestrial icy bodies, like e.g. the polar areas on Mars or the icy satellites of the outer solar system. We report on some basic experiments performed in the cryo-vacuum laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz. In these experiments the penetration of a simple melting probe into compact and porous water ice (with a snow-like texture) was monitored, both under vacuum conditions and under air pressure. The observed penetration speeds for a given power supply are compared with a simple mathematical model. We conclude that a miniature melting probe with small overall dimensions and a reasonable power demand could well be part of the payload of a future planetary mission, for example to the poles of Mars. Such missions are currently under discussion in several space agencies. Moreover such probes could also e? ectively be used in terrestrial environments. A possible design is presented at the end of the paper.     

地温重复性异常与发震构造关系初探

一、前言深入研究三马坊站的地温前兆异常发现,某些地区的地温前兆异常有明显的重复性。主震发生前先有信号震发生,信号震的地温前兆异常与主震的地温前兆异常相似；信号震和主震受同一构造带控制。从地温前兆异常中区分出信号震的前兆异常及其与活动性构造带间的相互关系,是探寻地震短临预报方法的有效途径之一。     

塔院地温对2003年4月24日唐山地震的前兆反应及同震效应

本文分析了塔院地温在唐山宁河地震前的前兆异常特征及同震效应。宁河地震地温前兆异常和北西向张家口-渤海构造带上发生的地震地温前兆带具有重复性、相似性、继承性和延续性。深入研究,对突破地震预报有深远意义。     

南京市日最高气温对支气管和心血管类疾病就诊人数的影响

融合应用分布滞后非线性模型(Distributed Lag Mon-linear Model,DLNM)与广义相加模型(Generalized Additive Model,GAM),在控制新冠疫情影响、节假日效应、星期效应、长期趋势以及大气污染因子等因素基础上,探究了2018—2020年南京市日最高气温与当地支气管类、心血管类疾病就诊人数的暴露反应关系,包括滞后效应和累积效应。结果表明:对于支气管类疾病,冬季为高风险期,低温的即时效应和累积效应显著;中短期累积作用下,气温越低危险性越大;长期累积作用下,10 ℃左右的危险性最大;高温累积效应不显著,30 ℃左右滞后效应显著。对于心血管类疾病,低温的即时效应和累积效应显著,11~12 ℃左右影响的累积效应和持续性最强;高温的滞后效应显著,温度越高,滞后效应越明显;长期暴露于高温环境的患病风险会快速增加,日最高气温32 ℃左右的暴露累积风险最大。针对这两类疾病,当日最高气温在22~24 ℃范围内,属于人体最舒适温度。     

Parameterization of the Absorption of the H_2O Continuum,CO_2,O_2,and Other Trace Gases in the Fu-Liou Solar Radiation Program

The absorption properties of the water vapor continuum and a number of weak bands for H2O, O2, CO2, CO, N2O, CH4, and O3 in the solar spectrum are incorporated into the Fu-Liou radiation parameterization program by using the correlated k-distribution method (CKD) for the sorting of absorption lines. The overlap absorption of the H2O lines and the H2O continuum (2500-14500 cm-1) are treated by taking the two gases as a single-mixture gas in transmittance calculations. Furthermore, in order to optimize the computation efforts, CO2 and CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm-1 are taken as a new single-mixture gas as well. For overlap involving other absorption lines in the Fu-Liou spectral bands, the authors adopt the multiplication rule for transmittance computations under which the absorption spectra for two gases are assumed to be uncorrelated. Compared to the line-by-line (LBL) computation, it is shown that the errors in fluxes introduced by these two approaches within the context of the CKD method are small and less than 0.48% for the H2O line and continuum in the 2500-14500 cm-1 solar spectral region, -1% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) CO2 CH4 in the spectral region 2850-5250 cm-1, and -1.5% for H2O (line) H2O (continuum) O2 in the 7700-14500 cm-1 spectral region. Analysis also demonstrates that the multiplication rule over a spectral interval as wide as 6800 cm-1 can produce acceptable errors with a maximum percentage value of about 2% in reference to the LBL calculation. Addition of the preceding gases increases the absorption of solar radiation under all sky conditions. For clear sky, the increase in instantaneous solar absorption is about 9%-13% (~12 W m~2) among which the H2O continuum produces the largest increase, while the contributions from O2 and CO2 rank second and third, respectively. In cloudy sky, the addition of absorption amounts to about 6-9 W m-2. The new, improved program with the incorporation of the preceding gases produces a smaller solar absorption in clouds due to the reduced solar flux reaching the cloud top.     

关于梅雨研究的回顾与展望

从梅雨的划分、梅雨的降水分型、梅雨与季风的关系及梅雨的影响因子几个方面,对前人的研究成果进行了回顾和讨论。最后,提出梅雨研究仍需解决的问题：（1）江淮流域梅雨季节的开始至今仍没有一个客观统一划定标准;（2）南海季风、印度季风等季风子系统对梅雨的影响大小及其机制尚需进一步研究讨论;（3）应针对梅雨季节内江淮流域不同的降水分布型,寻找其前期预兆信号进行深入研究;（4）应特别注意特定海温分布型对梅雨的影响,并从中找出影响梅雨的关键区域和影响的关键时段;（5）积冰和雪盖与梅雨异常的关系仍需进一步求证,影响机制还需进一步探索。     

基于GIS的定西市干旱灾害风险评估及区划

利用1981~2010年各类干旱统计资料,结合地形特征、人口密度、社会经济等资料,构建加权归一化回归模型,借助GIS强大的空间分析功能,对定西市干旱灾害孕灾环境的敏感性、致灾因子的危险性与承灾体的暴露度进行分析与评估,最后给出了基于孕灾环境、致灾因子与承灾体3个条件的干旱灾害风险区划。结果表明,定西市干旱灾害频率呈增加趋势,1999年后3县及以上区域的春旱每年均有发生;干旱灾害的高风险区在定西市北部到中部,大体上呈D字形分布,南部为干旱灾害低风险区。定西市中北部易受干旱威胁,在农作物结构布局上应以大秋作物为主,尽量使农作物在生长及需水关键期避开前半年的主要干旱时段。     

聚氨酯泡塑富集硫脲解脱-石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定地质样品中金铂

泡沫塑料常用于富集常规地质样品中的铂族元素,而富集后往往用高温灰化法解脱,此法操作繁琐,温度过高易使铂配合物分解为王水难以提取的不溶性残渣,导致测试结果不稳定、效率低;单独使用20 g/L硫脲溶液解脱,测试结果的重现性差。本文对此方法进行改进,采用50%王水封闭溶解试样,氯化亚锡还原,聚氨酯泡塑富集,20 g/L硫脲-20%盐酸溶液解脱,石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定金和铂。在盐酸-氯化亚锡体系中,吸附温度为20℃,振荡时间为30 min时,金和铂的回收率均在95%以上,金和铂的检出限分别为0.23 ng/g和0.39 ng/g,精密度(RSD,n=10)分别为1.8%～10.3%和1.3%～13.3%。经国家一级标准物质验证,测定值和标准值基本相符。该方法泡塑解脱时无需高温灰化,用王水多次提取,在100℃沸水浴中即可一次完成,样品处理快捷。与高温灰化法相比,提取温度大为降低,分析流程简单,显著提高了单次测样量,且干扰小、空白值低,可以满足除王水难溶的铂矿种外大部分地质样品快速测定的需要。     

基于帕默尔干旱指数的中国春季区域干旱特征比较研究

利用全国515个站(1957-2000年)气象资料,修正计算帕默尔干旱指数(Palmer drought severy index),进行干旱区划和研究春季区域演变特征.结果表明:中国干旱变化全区一致性程度低,干旱演变的区域差别大,存在着以内蒙古高原、南岭、华北北部及长白山脉、长江中下游、黄土高原、黄淮地区、天山北部、东北平原、河西走廊、云贵高原、塔里木盆地、青藏高原等为代表的12个干旱特征区.内蒙古高原区、华北北部及长白山脉区、黄土高原区、天山北部区域、东北平原区、河西走廊及其沙漠戈壁区春季干旱指数趋势变化呈下降趋势.南岭区、长江中下游区、黄淮区域、云贵高原区、塔里木盆地区、青藏高原区春季干旱指数趋势变化呈上升趋势.中国春季干旱指数大多存在5～8年的短周期年际周期变化,12～13年、15～16年的长周年际周期变化存在于部分区域,个别区域还存在20年长周期年际周期变化.中国干旱的区域特征差别显著.