New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Real Time Analysis and Forecasting of Strata Caving Behaviour during Longwall Operations

Summary. Discontinuous manual observations and irregular caving characteristics of roof rocks often lead to improper decisions resulting in accidents and production loss. Hence, systematic monitoring of the hanging roof behind the chock shields is necessary for safe and productive mining operations. A real-time application was successfully implemented in an Indian mine for forecasting of hanging roof behaviour to enhance safety and productivity. This paper reports the functioning of real-time TWAP (time weighted average pressure) analysis in the forecasting of hanging roof behaviour in real time.     

Elastic properties of granulite facies rocks of Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu, India

Compressional and shear wave velocities and attenuation measurements have been carried out in some of the borehole samples of acidic, basic and intermediate granulites of Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu, India. The results have been obtained at ambient conditions using ‘time-of-flight’ pulse transmission technique at 1.0 MHz frequency. The results show linear relationships between velocity and density, and velocity and attenuation properties of the rocks. The acidic granulites show lower velocities and higher attenuation than the intermediate and basic granulites. The average values of the Poisson’s ratio of acidic, intermediate and basic granulites have been found to be 0.210, 0.241 and 0.279 respectively. The variations in velocities and attenuation in these low porosity crystalline rocks are found to be strongly influenced by their mineral composition. The laboratory velocity data (extrapolated to high pressure) of the present study and the published field velocity data from deep seismic sounding studies indicate that these granulite facies rocks may belong to mid-crustal depths only.     

Mineralogy and PT formation conditions of lead-zinc ore at the Dzhimidon deposit, north Ossetia

The mineralogy and PT formation conditions of the Dzhimidon Pb-Zn deposit in the Sadon ore district are considered. The deposit is localized in metamorphic rocks of the Buron Formation, which pertain to the pre-Jurassic basement (lower structural stage) and are cut through by Upper Paleozoic granitoids, and in the Lower Jurassic terrigenous sequence (upper structural stage). Orebodies as quartz-sulfide veins are mainly hosted in the metamorphic rocks. Galena, sphalerite, chalcopyrite, pyrite, pyrrhotite, and arsenopyrite are the most abundant sulfides, while quartz, carbonates, chlorite, sericite, and feldspar are gangue minerals. The bismuth mineralization identified at this deposit for the first time is represented by diverse phases of the Ag-Pb-Bi-S system. Five stages of the ore deposit formation are recognized: a premineral stage (quartz-feldspar), three ore-bearing stages (pyrite-arsenopyrite, pyrrhotite-chalcopyrite-sphalerite, and arsenopyrite-sphalerite-galena), and a postmineral stage (quartz-calcite); each stage comprises one or several mineral assemblages. The study of fluid inclusions in quartz, calcite, and sphalerite of the premineral, ore-forming, and postmineral stages has shown that the ore was deposited mainly from Na chloride solution with a salinity varying from >22 to <1.0 wt % NaCl equiv at a temperature from 460 to ～120°C and 430–290 bars pressure. The third stage was characterized by an abrupt increase in temperature and by the appearance of Mg(Fe,Ca) chloride solutions equally with Na chloride fluids, presumably owing to the emplacement of granite porphyry.     

A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

Subsurface dams to harvest rainwater— a case study of the Swarnamukhi River basin, Southern India

Declining water level trends and yields of wells, deterioration of groundwater quality and drying up of shallow wells are common in many parts of India. This is mainly attributed to the recurrence of drought years, over exploitation of groundwater, increase in the number of groundwater structures and explosion of population. In this subcontinent, the saving of water has to be done on the days it rains. India receives much of its rainfall in just 100 h in a year mostly during the monsoon period. If this water is not captured or stored, the rest of the year experiences a precarious situation manifest in water scarcity. The main objective behind the construction of subsurface dams in the Swarnamukhi River basin was to harvest the base flow infiltrating into sandy alluvium as waste to the sea and thereby to increase groundwater potential for meeting future water demands. An analysis of hydrographs of piezometers of four subsurface dams, monitored during October 2001–December 2002, reveals that there is an average rise of 1.44 m in post-monsoon and 1.80 m in the pre-monsoon period after the subsurface dams were constructed. Further, during the pre-monsoon month of June, much before construction of subsurface dams in October 2001, the water level was found fluctuating in the range of 3.1–10 m, in contrast to the fluctuation ranging from 0.4 to 3.1 m during the period following the construction of dams. Hence, the planning of rainwater harvesting structures entails thorough scientific investigations for identifying the most suitable locations for subsurface dams.     

A Connectivity Index for Discrete Fracture Networks

Connectivity is an important measure for assessing flow transport in rock, especially through fractures. In this paper, rock fracture systems are modelled by a discrete fracture model simulated by a marked point process. A connectivity index is then introduced to quantify the connectivity between any two points in space. Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the connectivity index for stationary cases and relationships between the connectivity index and the parameters of the discrete fracture model are analysed. The average number of intersections per fracture, X_f, and the fracture intensity, P12 (P32), are calculated and the relationships between these parameters and the connectivity index are investigated, concluding that X_f is the more suitable parameter for the classification of rock mass flow properties. The relationships between the connectivity index and the percolation state of the fractured medium are also discussed. An edge correction is briefly discussed and a practical example is used to demonstrate the method of computing the connectivity index.