Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.     

Temporal vP/vS variation characteristics in different zones of China’s Capital Circle area before and after Wen’an earthquake

On July 4, 2006, an earthquake of MS5.1 took place in Wen’an, Hebei Province, just at the south center of China’s Capital Circle area digital seismograph network. It is the strongest event recorded ever since the network went into operation in 2002. We processed the vast amounts of phase data yielded by the 107 digital seismic stations between 2002~2007 using Wadati method. In order to improve the precision and stability of shear and compressional wave velocities (vP/vS) calculation, we impose a number of restrictions on the computation environment and condition, e.g., the earthquakes are densely concentrated, selected stations are limited in range, the number of stations in- volved in the computation is larger than 5 and linear fitting features high precision and small error. Under these restrictions, the study shows that vP/vS in and around Wen’an and Tangshan underwent a normal-low-normal proc- ess one year before Wen’an earthquake, vP/vS became obviously low and the low ratio lasted for about one year, meanwhile, little variation of vP/vS was seen in Xingtai, northwest of Beijing, southwest of Beijing, Beijing-Tianjin and Beijing; after the quake, the vP/vS returned normal in Wen’an and Tangshan. Error and stability analysis of the calculated result for vP/vS shows it is convincible that anomaly appeared in and around Wen’an and Tangshan be- fore Wen’an earthquake.     

Interpretation of Gravity Anomalies with the Normalized Full Gradient (NFG) Method and an Example

The Normalized Full Gradient (NFG) method which was put forward about 50 years ago has been used for downward continuation of gravity potential data, especially in the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This method nullifies perturbations due to the passage of mass depth during downward continuation. The method depends on the downwards analytical continuation of normalized full gradient values of gravity data. Analytical continuation discriminates certain structural anomalies which cannot be distinguished in the observed gravity field. This method has been used in various petroleum and tectonic studies. The Trapeze method was used for the determination of Fourier coefficients during the application of this method. No other techniques for calculating these coefficients have been used. However, the Filon method was used for the determination of Fourier coefficients during the application of the NFG method in this work. This method, rather than the Trapeze method, should be preferred for indicating abnormal mass resources at the lower harmonics. In this study, the NFG method using the Filon method has been applied the first time to theoretical models of gravity profiles as example field at the Hasankale-Horasan petroleum exploration province where successful results were achieved. Hydrocarbon presence was shown on the NFG sections by the application of NFG downward continuation operations on theoretical models. Important signs of hydrocarbon structure on the NFG section for field and model data at low harmonics are obtained more effectively using this method.     

From paleo to policy: partitioning the historical point and nonpoint phosphorus loads to the St. Croix River,Minnesota-Wisconsin,USA

Paleolimnological studies show that phosphorus (P) loads to the federally protected St. Croix River, a tributary of the Upper Mississippi River, have increased about threefold over the last century. Ongoing management efforts to protect and restore the river hinge on the question of whether the increased nutrient load results from point-source discharges or nonpoint runoff from agricultural intensification and urban expansion. Here we determine the historical contribution of point source phosphorus (P) loads to the St. Croix watershed from 1900–2000 A.D. Historical point source loads were estimated based on discharge volumes, demographics, industrial sources, wastewater technologies, and facility discharge records, where available. Sewering in the basin began in 1905, and since that time, there have been as many as 169 permitted point source dischargers basinwide, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural facilities. Early wastewater management typically discharged untreated sewage; technological advances had secondary treatment in place at most facilities by the 1960s–1970s and much of the municipal population was served by tertiary treatment by the 1990s. Peak nutrient discharges from point sources occurred in the 1960s–1970s. Detergent phosphorus bans instituted in the late 1970s for Minnesota and Wisconsin, greater use of land and groundwater effluent disposal, and improvements in treatment technology brought about decreases in P loads in the 1980s and 1990s. Point-source discharges were compared to historical total phosphorus loads estimated in a whole-basin phosphorus mass balance to calculate the historical contribution of point sources, anthropogenic nonpoint sources, and natural or background sources. We estimated 1990s point source loads at 48 t P yr⁻¹, which represents about 10% of the total phosphorus load (459 t P yr⁻¹, flow-corrected to 412 t P yr⁻¹) to the basin. Without further controls on nutrient inputs to the St. Croix River, annual flow-corrected P loads are projected to increase to 498 t P yr⁻¹ by the 2020s with point source phosphorus loading contributions at 65 t P yr⁻¹ or 13% of the total load. However, if we exclude background P loads to the St. Croix (166 t P yr⁻¹), recent nutrient loads are primarily from anthropogenic nonpoint sources. Point sources also contribute over 19% of the current and future phosphorus load that can be attributed to human activities in the watershed. Interstate and federal efforts to decrease P loading to the St. Croix River by 20% will need to target both point and nonpoint sources. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Parameterization of Sheared Convective Entrainment in the First-Order Jump Model: Evaluation Through Large-Eddy Simulation

In this note, two different approaches are used to estimate the entrainment-flux to surface-flux ratio for a sheared convective boundary layer (CBL); both are derived under the framework of the first-order jump model (FOM). That suggested by Sun and Wang (SW approach) has the advantage that there is no empirical constant included, though the dynamics are described in an implicit manner. The second, which was proposed by Kim et al. and Pino et al. (KP approach), explicitly characterizes the dynamics of the sheared entrainment, but uncertainties are induced through the empirical constants. Their performances in parameterizing the CBL growth rate are compared and discussed, and a new value of the parameter A ₃ in the KP approach is suggested. Large-eddy simulation (LES) data are employed to test both approaches: simulations are conducted for the CBL growing under varying conditions of surface roughness, free-atmospheric stratification, and wind shear, and data used when the turbulence is in steady state. The predicted entrainment rates in each case are tested against the LES data. The results show that the SW approach describes the evolution of the sheared CBL quite well, and the KP approach also reproduces the growth of the CBL reasonably, so long as the value of A ₃ is modified to 0.6.     

Effect of perturbations on the non linear stability of triangular points in the restricted three-body problem with variable mass

The effect of small perturbations ε and ε ^′ in the Coriolis and the centrifugal forces, respectively on the nonlinear stability of the triangular points in the restricted three-body problem with variable mass has been studied. It is found that, in the nonlinear sense, the triangular points are stable for all mass ratios in the range of linear stability except for three mass ratios, which depend upon ε, ε ^′ and β, the constant due to the variation in mass governed by Jeans’ law.     

Petrogenesis of the Greenhills Complex,Southland, New Zealand: magmatic differentiation and cumulate formation at the roots of a Permian island-arc volcano

A Permian (~265 Ma) intrusive complex which formed as a magmatic feeder reservoir to an immature island-arc volcano is fortuitously exposed in southern New Zealand. Known as the Greenhills Complex, this intrusion was emplaced at shallow crustal levels and consists of two layered bodies which were later intruded by a variety of dykes. Cumulates, which include dunite, olivine clinopyroxenite, olivine gabbro, and hornblende gabbro-norite, are related products of parent-magma fractionation. Both primary (magmatic) and secondary platinum-group minerals occur within dunite at one locality. Using the composition of cumulus minerals, mafic dykes and melt inclusions, we have determined that the parent magmas of the complex were hydrous, low-K island-arc tholeiites of ankaramitic affinities. Progressive magmatic differentiation of this parent magma generated fractionated melt of high-alumina basalt composition which is now preserved only as dykes which cut the Complex. Field evidence and cumulus mineral profiles reveal that the magma chambers experienced turbulent magmatic conditions during cumulate-rock formation. Recharge of the chambers by primitive magma is likely to have coincided with eruption of residual melt at the surface. Similar processes are inferred to account for volcanic-rock compositions in other parts of this arc terrane and in modern island-arc systems.     

Heavy minerals of the Barakar Formation,Talchir Gondwana Basin,Orissa

Heavy mineral analysis has been carried out in the Barakar Formation of the Talchir Gondwana Bbasin, Orissa. The characteristic heavy minerals are garnet, zircon, tourmaline, rutile, biotite, chlorite, pyroxenes, hornblende, staurolite, sillimanite, apatite, epidote, sphene, spinel and siderite including opaques and leucoxene. These heavy minerals are divisible into four groups on the basis of principal component analysis and suggest derivation of Barakar sediments from pegmatite, acid and basic igneous as well as low- and high-rank metamorphic rocks lying to the south of the Talchir Gondwana Basin. Though the heavy mineral suites of all the sandstone samples are by and large similar, differences have been noticed in the frequencies of many heavy minerals in vertical succession. Cyclic nature and vertical fluctuation of heavy mineral frequencies can be ascribed to variation of the relief of the source area, sudden release of some of the minerals in the source region and/or existence of favourable geochemical condition to escape partial dissolution.     

Geology and geochemistry of the Bingdaban ophiolitic mélange in the boundary fault zone on the northern Central Tianshan Belt,and its tectonic implications

The properties and tectonic significance of the fault bound zone on the northern margin of the Central Tianshan belt are key issues to understand the tectonic framework and evolutionary history of the Tianshan Orogenic Belt. Based on the geological and geochemical studies in the Tianshan orogenic belt, it is suggested that the ophiolitic slices found in the Bingdaban area represent the remaining oceanic crust of the Early Paleozoic ocean between the Hazakstan and Zhungaer blocks. Mainly composed of basalts, gabbros and diabases, the ophiolites were overthrust onto the boundary fault between the Northern Tianshan and Central Tianshan belts. The major element geochemistry is characterized by high TiO₂ (1.50%–2.25%) and MgO (6.64%–9.35%), low K₂O (0.06%–0.41%) and P₂O₅ (0.1%–0.2%), and Na₂O>K₂O as well. Low ΣREE and depletion in LREE indicate that the original magma was derived from a depleted mantle source. Compared with a primitive mantle, the geochemistry of the basalts from the Bingdaban area is featureded by depletion in Th, U, Nb, La, Ce and Pr, and unfractionated in HFS elements. The ratios of Zr/Nb, Nb/La, Hf/Ta, Th/Yb and Hf/Th are similar to those of the typical N-MORB. It can be interpreted that the basalts in the Bingdaban area were derived from a depleted mantle source, and formed in a matured mid-oceanic ridge setting during the matured evolutionary stage of the Northern Tianshan ocean. In comparison with the basalts, the diabases from the Bingdaban area show higher contents of Al₂O₃, ΣREE and HFS elements as well as unfractionated incompatible elements except Cs, Rb and Ba, and about 10 times the values of the primitive mantle. Thus, the diabases are thought to be derived from a primitive mantle and similar to the typical E-MORB. The diabases also have slight Nb depletion accompanying no apparent Th enrichment compared with N-MORB. From studies of the regional geology and all above evidence, it can be suggested that the diabases from the Bingdaban area were formed in the mid-oceanic ridge of the Northern Tianshan ocean during the initial spreading stage. Supported by the Major State Research Program of PRC (Grant No. 2001CB409801), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40472115 and 40234041) and the State Research Program of China Geological Survey (Grant No. 2001130000-22)