Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.     

Glauconites from the Late Palaeocene — Early Eocene Naredi Formation,western Kutch and their genetic implications

Glauconitic minerals are considered as one of the valuable input parameters in sequence stratigraphic analysis of a basin. In the present study glauconitic minerals are reported from subtidal green shale facies in the lower part of the Late Paleocene-Early Eocene Naredi Formation of western Kutch. On the basis of the foraminiferal assemblage the glauconite bearing beds are interpreted to have formed in a mid shelf depositional settings of an unstable marine conditions. XRD studies confirm the glauconite mineralogy of the green pellets and provide an estimation of glauconite maturity. Textural attributes of the glauconites confirm their derivation by different degrees of alteration of precursor feldspar grains. Because of the authigenic origin and autochthonous nature, these glauconites hold promise for understanding sequence stratigraphy of the Palaeogene succession of the western Kutch.     

Formation of the adakite-like granitoid complex and porphyry copper-gold deposit in Shaxi from southern Tancheng-Lujiang fault belt： A clue to the West Pacific plate subduction

On the basis of the geological and geochemical studies, including chemical analysis of bulk rocks, rare-earth and trace element studies, fluid inclusion, and S and O isotopic analyses, the authors described the geo-logical background of the deposit in detail and presented significant proofs for the conditions of formation of the Shaxi porphyry copper-gold deposit. Compared with other large and supper-large porphyry copper deposits in China and the adjacent Cu-Au mineralized areas, the ore-forming processes and conditions were analyzed; and the possibil-ity of forming large porphyry copper deposits in the Shaxi area was discussed. The present study indicated that the ore-forming fluid and material were mainly of magmatic origin, while meteoric water played a certain role in the ore-forming processes. Interactions between subducting and overriding plates provided a major driving force for the formation of igneous rocks and the deposition of metal elements in East China since Jurassic. Based on the geo-chemical data of the Shaxi intrusive, it is found that the copper (gold) mineralization is closely related to the genesis of adakite-like intrusive in the Shaxi area. This adakite-like intrusive was formed in the subduction environment as a result of the subduction of the West Pacific plate toward the East China continent, where there is a great potential-ity to form a large porphyry copper deposit.     

Raman spectroscopic study of K-lingunite at various pressures and temperatures

K-lingunite is a high-pressure modification of K-feldspar that possesses the tetragonal hollandite structure. Variations of the Raman spectra of K-lingunite were studied up to ~31.5 GPa at room temperature, and in the range 79–823 K at atmospheric pressure. The Raman frequencies of all bands were observed to increase with increasing pressure, and decrease with increasing temperature for K-lingunite. This behavior is in line with those observed for most of other materials. New sharp Raman bands appear at pressures greater than 13–15 GPa, suggesting a phase transition in K-lingunite with increasing pressure. The transition is reversible when pressure was released. The appearance of these new Raman bands may correspond to the phase transition revealed earlier at around 20 GPa by X-ray diffraction studies. Instead of transforming back to its stable minerals, such as orthoclase, microcline or sanidine, K-lingunite became amorphous in the temperature range 803–823 K at atmospheric pressure.     

Comparative analysis of contributing parameters for rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal

In the Himalaya, people live in widely spread settlements and suffer more from landslides than from any other type of natural disaster. The intense summer monsoons are the main factor in triggering landslides. However, the relations between landslides and slope hydrology have not been a focal topic in Himalayan landslide research. This paper deals with the contributing parameters for the rainfall-triggered landslides which occurred during an extreme monsoon rainfall event on 23 July 2002, in the south-western hills of Kathmandu valley, in the Lesser Himalaya, Nepal. Parameters such as bedrock geology, geomorphology, geotechnical properties of soil, and clay mineralogy are described in this paper. Landslide modeling was performed in SEEP/W and SLOPE/W to understand the relationship of pore water pressure variations in soil layers and to determine the spatial variation of landslide occurrence. Soil characteristics, low angle of internal friction of fines in soil, medium range of soil permeability, presence of clay minerals in soil, bedrock hydrogeology, and human intervention were found to be the main contributing parameters for slope failures in the region.     

Fragmentation during Rock Falls: Two Italian Case Studies of Hard and Soft Rocks

In recent years, rock fall phenomena in Italy have received considerable attention for risk mitigation through in situ observations and experimental data. This paper reports the study conducted at Camaldoli Hill, in the urban area of Naples, and at Monte Pellegrino, Palermo, Italy. The rocks involved are volcanic Neapolitan yellow tuff (NYT) in the former area and dolomitic limestone in the latter. Both rocks, even though with different strength characteristics, have shown a significant tendency towards rock fragmentation during run out. This behavior was first investigated by comparing the volumes of removable blocks on the cliff faces (V ₀) and fallen blocks on the slopes (V _f). It was assumed that the ratio V _f/V ₀ decreases with the distance (x _f) from the detachment area by an empirical law, which depends on a coefficient α, correlated with the geotechnical properties of the materials involved in the rock fall. Finally, this law was validated by observation of well-documented natural rock falls (Palermo) and by in situ full-scale tests (Naples). From the engineering perspective, consideration of fragmentation processes in rock fall modeling provides a means for designing low-cost mitigation measures.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy Diffusivity\Mass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w _*. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCS\ARM) and conserve a realistic evolution of stratocumulus (EUROCS\FIRE).     

Turbulent Transfer Between Street Canyons and the Overlying Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The turbulent exchange of momentum between a two-dimensional cavity and the overlying boundary layer has been studied experimentally, using hot-wire anemometry and particle image velocimetry (PIV). Conditions within the boundary layer were varied by changing the width of the canyons upstream of the test canyon, whilst maintaining the square geometry of the test canyon. The results show that turbulent transfer is due to the coupling between the instabilities generated in the shear layer above the canyons and the turbulent structures in the oncoming boundary layer. As a result, there is no single, unique velocity scale that correctly characterizes all the processes involved in the turbulent exchange of momentum across the boundary layer. Similarly, there is no single velocity scale that can characterize the different properties of the turbulent flow within the canyon, which depends strongly on the way in which turbulence from the outer flow is entrained into the cavity and carried round by the mean flow. The results from this study will be useful in developing simple parametrizations for momentum exchange in the urban canopy, in situations where the street geometry consists principally of relatively long, uniform streets arranged in grid-like patterns; they are unlikely to be applicable to sparse geometries composed of isolated three-dimensional obstacles.     

Experimental Investigation of Turbulent Momentum Transfer in a Neutral Boundary Layer over a Rough Surface

The turbulent characteristics of the neutral boundary layer developing over rough surfaces are not well predicted with operational weather-forecasting models. The problem is attributed to inadequate mixing-length models, to the anisotropy of the flow and to a lack of controlled experimental data against which to validate numerical studies. Therefore, in order to address directly the modelling difficulties for the development of a neutral boundary layer over rough surfaces, and to investigate the turbulent momentum transfer of such a layer, a set of hydraulic flume experiments were carried out. In the experiments, the mean and turbulent quantities were measured by a particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique. The measured velocity variances and fluxes \({(\overline{{u_{i}^{\prime}}{u_{j}^{\prime}}})}\) in longitudinal vertical planes allowed the vertical and longitudinal gradients (?/?z and ?/?x) of the mean and turbulent quantities (fluxes, variances and third-order moments) to be evaluated and the terms of the evolution equations for ?e/?t, \({\partial \overline{u^{\prime 2}}/\partial t}\), \({\partial \overline{w^{\prime 2}}/\partial t}\) and \({\partial \overline{{u^{\prime}}{w^{\prime}}}/\partial t}\) to be quantified, where e is the turbulent kinetic energy. The results show that the pressure-correlation terms allow the turbulent energy to be transferred equitably from \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}^{2}}}\) to \({\overline{{w^{\prime}}^{2}}}\). It appears that the repartition between the constitutive terms of the budget of e, \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}^{2}}}\), \({\overline{{w^{\prime}}^{2}}}\) and \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}{w^{\prime}}}}\) is not significantly affected by the development of the rough neutral boundary layer. For the whole evolution, the transfers of energy are governed by the same terms that are also very similar to the smooth-wall case. The PIV measurements also allowed the spatial integral scales to be computed directly and to be compared with the dissipative and mixing length scales, which were also computed from the data.