A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy Diffusivity\Mass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w _*. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCS\ARM) and conserve a realistic evolution of stratocumulus (EUROCS\FIRE).     

Quantifying internal variability in a regional climate model: a case study for Southern Africa

This study aims at presenting various methodologies to separate the reproducible and irreproducible components of seasonal and intraseasonal climate variability simulated by a regional climate model over Southern Africa (south of 15°S), during an austral summer rainy season representative of the climatology. To that end, a 30-member ensemble simulation is performed using WRF laterally forced by the ERA40 reanalyses. Retained metrics include the analysis of weather regimes, signal-to-noise ratio, inter-member standard deviation and coefficient of variation. At the seasonal timescale, simulated rainfall amounts generally show a strong reproducibility, except in the subtropics and over the southern part of the Mozambique Channel. There, the number of rainy days is roughly similar in all members, while their average intensity varies extensively. At the intraseasonal timescale, the chronology of weather regimes, derived from the 500?hPa geopotential height, is highly reproducible. Rainfall variability is much less reproducible, especially in the central parts of the domain and near its outflow boundaries. Analysis of a South African regional index nonetheless indicates that both wet and dry spells tend to be accurately simulated and occur in phase in most members, demonstrating that they are embedded in large-scale variability patterns. Internal variability is lastly related to the lateral forcings along the domain boundaries. An objective classification of inflow/outflow mass fluxes allows identification of the recurrent synoptic configurations that favor strong or weak regional reproducibility. The main uncertainties concern the basic morphological features of rain-bearing systems (i.e., their spatial extension, location and propagation speed). Consequences for tropical-temperate interactions are then discussed.     

Multiple-point statistics using multi-resolution images

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Multiple-point statistics (MPS) is a simulation technique allowing to generate images that reproduce the spatial features present in a...     

Comments on the low-wavenumber power of granulation brightness fluctuations

A comment is made on the Edmonds' study of the low-wavenumber power of solar granulation. It is concluded that its one-dimensional power spectrum is biased, and that the corresponding two-dimensional power spectrum shows negative parts.     

Prototype measurements and small-scale model tests of wave overtopping at shallow rubble-mound breakwaters: the Ostia-Rome yacht harbour case

The paper presents the comparison between the results of small-scale model tests and prototype measurements of wave overtopping at a rubble-mound breakwater. The specific structure investigated is the west breakwater of the yacht harbour of Rome at Ostia (Italy) and is characterized by a gentle seaward slope (1/4) and by a long, shallow foreshore. The laboratory tests firstly aimed at carefully reproducing two measured storms in which overtopping occurred and was measured. The tests have been carried out in two independent laboratories, in a wave flume and in a wave basin, hence using a two-dimensional (2-D) and a three-dimensional (3-D) setup. In the 2-D laboratory tests no overtopping occurred during the storm reproductions; in the 3-D case discharges five to ten times smaller than those observed in prototype have been measured. This indicates the existence of model and scale effects. These effects have been discussed on the basis of the results of several parametric tests, which have been carried out in both laboratories, in addition to the storm reproductions, varying wave and water level characteristics. Final comparison of all the performed tests with 86 prototype measurements still suggests the existence of scale and model effects that induce strong underestimation of overtopping discharge at small scale. The scale reproduction of wave breaking on the foreshore, together with the 3-D features of the prototype conditions and the absence of wind stress in the laboratory measurements, have been individuated as the main sources of scale and model effects. The paper also provides a comparison between the data and a largely used formula for wave overtopping discharges in the presence of structures similar to the one at hand. The suitable value of a roughness factor that appears in that formula is investigated and good agreement is found with other recent researches on rubble-mound breakwaters.     

Limited effect of the Quaternary's largest super-eruption (Toba) on land mammals from Southeast Asia

The effect of the Toba super-eruption at 74 kyr on the mammals of Southeast Asia is examined. Although few Late Pleistocene sites from Southeast Asia have been described, an analysis of those which pre- and post-date Toba reveals relatively few species became extinct following the eruption. It is suggested that species survived in refugia immediately following the eruption, and that they repopulated vast areas following a probable short period (i.e. decades to century) of environmental devastation. This study suggests that mammals are more robust at coping with catastrophic events than previously acknowledged, and questions the perceived human monopoly in overcoming ecological adversity.     

Constraints on the thermal evolution of continental lithosphere from U-Pb accessory mineral thermochronometry of lower crustal xenoliths,southern Africa

U-Pb isotopic thermochronometry of rutile, apatite and titanite from kimberlite-borne lower crustal granulite xenoliths has been used to constrain the thermal evolution of Archean cratonic and Proterozoic off-craton continental lithosphere beneath southern Africa. The relatively low closure temperature of the U-Pb rutile thermochronometer (~400-450 °C) allows its use as a particularly sensitive recorder of the establishment of "cratonic" lithospheric geotherms, as well as subsequent thermal perturbations to the lithosphere. Contrasting lower crustal thermal histories are revealed between intracratonic and craton margin regions. Discordant Proterozoic (1.8 to 1.0 Ga) rutile ages in Archean (2.9 to 2.7 Ga) granulites from within the craton are indicative of isotopic resetting by marginal orogenic thermal perturbations influencing the deep crust of the cratonic nucleus. In Proterozoic (1.1 to 1.0 Ga) granulite xenoliths from the craton-bounding orogenic belts, rutiles define discordia arrays with Neoproterozoic (0.8 to 0.6 Ga) upper intercepts and lower intercepts equivalent to Mesozoic exhumation upon kimberlite entrainment. In combination with coexisting titanite and apatite dates, these results are interpreted as a record of postorogenic cooling at an integrated rate of approximately 1 °C/Ma, and subsequent variable Pb loss in the apatite and rutile systems during a Mesozoic thermal perturbation to the deep lithosphere. Closure of the rutile thermochronometer signals temperatures of 𙠂 °C in the lower crust during attainment of cratonic lithospheric conductive geotherms, and such closure in the examined portions of the "off-craton" Proterozoic domains of southern Africa indicates that their lithospheric thermal profiles were essentially cratonic from the Neoproterozoic through to the Late Jurassic. These results suggest similar lithospheric thickness and potential for diamond stability beneath both Proterozoic and Archean domains of southern Africa. Subsequent partial resetting of U-Pb rutile and apatite systematics in the cratonic margin lower crust records a transient Mesozoic thermal modification of the lithosphere, and modeling of the diffusive Pb loss from lower crustal rutile constrains the temperature and duration of Mesozoic heating to 𙡦 °C for ₞ ka. This result indicates that the thermal perturbation is not simply a kimberlite-related magmatic phenomenon, but is rather a more protracted manifestation of lithospheric heating, likely related to mantle upwelling and rifting of Gondwana during the Late Jurassic to Cretaceous. The manifestation of this thermal pulse in the lower crust is spatially and temporally correlated with anomalously elevated and/or kinked Cretaceous mantle paleogeotherms, and evidence for metasomatic modification in cratonic mantle peridotite suites. It is argued that most of the geographic differences in lithospheric thermal structure inferred from mantle xenolith thermobarometry are likewise due to the heterogeneous propagation of this broad upper mantle thermal anomaly. The differential manifestation of heating between cratonic margin and cratonic interior indicates the importance of advective heat transport along pre-existing lithosphere-scale discontinuities. Within this model, kimberlite magmatism was a similarly complex, space- and time-dependent response to Late Mesozoic lithospheric thermal perturbation.     

Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.     

U–Pb and Hf isotopic analysis of zircon in lower crustal xenoliths from the Navajo volcanic field: 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and metamorphism beneath the Colorado Plateau

Zircon from lower crustal xenoliths erupted in the Navajo volcanic field was analyzed for U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopic compositions to characterize the lower crust beneath the Colorado Plateau and to determine whether it was affected by ∼1.4 Ga granitic magmatism and metamorphism that profoundly affected the exposed middle crust of southwestern Laurentia. Igneous zircon in felsic xenoliths crystallized at 1.73 and 1.65 Ga, and igneous zircon in mafic xenoliths crystallized at 1.43 Ga. Most igneous zircon has unradiogenic initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=+4.1–+7.8) and 1.7–1.6 Ga depleted mantle model ages, consistent with 1.7–1.6 Ga felsic protoliths being derived from “juvenile” Proterozoic crust and 1.4 Ga mafic protoliths having interacted with older crust. Metamorphic zircon grew in four pulses between 1.42 and 1.36 Ga, at least one of which was at granulite facies. Significant variability within and between xenoliths in metamorphic zircon initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=−0.7 to +13.6) indicates growth from different aged sources with diverse time-integrated Lu/Hf ratios. These results show a strong link between 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and granulite facies metamorphism in the lower crust and granitic magmatism and metamorphism in the exposed middle crust.