Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Comments on the low-wavenumber power of granulation brightness fluctuations

A comment is made on the Edmonds' study of the low-wavenumber power of solar granulation. It is concluded that its one-dimensional power spectrum is biased, and that the corresponding two-dimensional power spectrum shows negative parts.     

Metasomatism and melting history of a Variscan lithospheric mantle domain: evidence from the Puy Beaunit xenoliths (French Massif Central)

Mantle xenoliths from Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central) are compositionally varied, ranging from relatively fertile spinel lherzolites to refractory spinel dunites. Fertile peridotites have registered a modal (amphibole-bearing lherzolites) and cryptic metasomatic event that took place before the last Permian (257 Ma) melting episode. Depletion processes have been constrained by chemical modelling: the depletion is related to different degrees of partial melting, but two major melt extraction episodes are needed to explain the range of major element composition. The second event was responsible for the local large-scale dunitification of former residues. The first melting event (F25%) and metasomatic enrichment are attributed to an ancient fluid and/or liquid infiltration that could be related to a pre-Variscan regional subduction (located to the north of the Beaunit area). Texture acquisition and major deformation of the mantle xenoliths were sub-contemporaneous of the subduction and would result from lithospheric delamination. The second melting event (F17%) produced high-Mg basalts with calc-alkaline trace element signature that gave rise to the Permian underplating episode recognised in western Europe.     

Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.     

Uncertainties in European summer precipitation changes: role of large scale circulation

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks.     

Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.     

Luciola hypertelescope space observatory: versatile, upgradable high-resolution imaging, from stars to deep-field cosmology

Luciola is a large (1 km) “multi-aperture densified-pupil imaging interferometer”, or “hypertelescope” employing many small apertures, rather than a few large ones, for obtaining direct snapshot images with a high information content. A diluted collector mirror, deployed in space as a flotilla of small mirrors, focuses a sky image which is exploited by several beam-combiner spaceships. Each contains a “pupil densifier” micro-lens array to avoid the diffractive spread and image attenuation caused by the small sub-apertures. The elucidation of hypertelescope imaging properties during the last decade has shown that many small apertures tend to be far more efficient, regarding the science yield, than a few large ones providing a comparable collecting area. For similar underlying physical reasons, radio-astronomy has also evolved in the direction of many-antenna systems such as the proposed Low Frequency Array having “hundreds of thousands of individual receivers”. With its high limiting magnitude, reaching the m _v?=?30 limit of HST when 100 collectors of 25 cm will match its collecting area, high-resolution direct imaging in multiple channels, broad spectral coverage from the 1,200 Å ultra-violet to the 20 μm infra-red, apodization, coronagraphic and spectroscopic capabilities, the proposed hypertelescope observatory addresses very broad and innovative science covering different areas of ESA’s Cosmic Vision program. In the initial phase, a focal spacecraft covering the UV to near IR spectral range of EMCCD photon-counting cameras (currently 200 to 1,000 nm), will image details on the surface of many stars, as well as their environment, including multiple stars and clusters. Spectra will be obtained for each resel. It will also image neutron star, black-hole and micro-quasar candidates, as well as active galactic nuclei, quasars, gravitational lenses, and other Cosmic Vision targets observable with the initial modest crowding limit. With subsequent upgrade missions, the spectral coverage can be extended from 120 nm to 20 μm, using four detectors carried by two to four focal spacecraft. The number of collector mirrors in the flotilla can also be increased from 12 to 100 and possibly 1,000. The imaging and spectroscopy of habitable exoplanets in the mid infra-red then becomes feasible once the collecting area reaches 6 m², using a specialized mid infra-red focal spacecraft. Calculations (Boccaletti et al., Icarus 145, 628–636, 2000) have shown that hypertelescope coronagraphy has unequalled sensitivity for detecting, at mid infra-red wavelengths, faint exoplanets within the exo-zodiacal glare. Later upgrades will enable the more difficult imaging and spectroscopy of these faint objects at visible wavelengths, using refined techniques of adaptive coronagraphy (Labeyrie and Le Coroller 2004). Together, the infra-red and visible spectral data carry rich information on the possible presence of life. The close environment of the central black-hole in the Milky Way will be imageable with unprecedented detail in the near infra-red. Cosmological imaging of remote galaxies at the limit of the known universe is also expected, from the ultra-violet to the near infra-red, following the first upgrade, and with greatly increasing sensitivity through successive upgrades. These areas will indeed greatly benefit from the upgrades, in terms of dynamic range, limiting complexity of the objects to be imaged, size of the elementary “Direct Imaging Field”, and limiting magnitude, approaching that of an 8-m space telescope when 1,000 apertures of 25 cm are installed. Similar gains will occur for addressing fundamental problems in physics and cosmology, particularly when observing neutron stars and black holes, single or binary, including the giant black holes, with accretion disks and jets, in active galactic nuclei beyond the Milky Way. Gravitational lensing and micro-lensing patterns, including time-variable patterns and perhaps millisecond lensing flashes which may be beamed by diffraction from sub-stellar masses at sub-parsec distances (Labeyrie, Astron Astrophys 284, 689, 1994), will also be observable initially in the favourable cases, and upgrades will greatly improve the number of observable objects. The observability of gravitational waves emitted by binary lensing masses, in the form of modulated lensing patterns, is a debated issue (Ragazzoni et al., MNRAS 345, 100–110, 2003) but will also become addressable observationally. The technology readiness of Luciola approaches levels where low-orbit testing and stepwise implementation will become feasible in the 2015–2025 time frame. For the following decades beyond 2020, once accurate formation flying techniques will be mastered, much larger hypertelescopes such as the proposed 100 km Exo-Earth Imager and the 100,000 km Neutron Star Imager should also become feasible. Luciola is therefore also seen as a precursor toward such very powerful instruments.     

Diffusion of Ar in muscovite

Hydrothermal treatment of closely sized muscovite aggregates in a piston-cylinder apparatus induced ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss that is revealed in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating spectra. Age spectra and Arrhenius data, however, differ from that expected from a single diffusion length scale. A numerical model of episodic loss assuming the presence of multiple diffusion domains yields excellent fits between synthetic and actual degassing spectra. We used this model to isolate ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss from the grains that remained intact during hydrothermal treatment at 10 kbar permitting calculation of diffusion coefficients in the temperature range 730-600 °C. Diffusion data generated in this manner yield an activation energy (E) of 63 ± 7 kcal/mol and frequency factor (D_o) of 2.3  cm²/s. Experiments at 20 kbar yield diffusivities lower by about an order of magnitude and correspond to an activation volume of ∼14 cm³/mol. Together, these parameters predict substantially greater retentivity of Ar in muscovite than previously assumed and correspond to a closure temperature (T_c) of 425 °C for a 100 μm radius grain cooling at 10 °C/Ma at 10 kbar (T_c = 405 °C at 5 kbar. Age and log (r/r_o) spectra for the run products show strong correlations indicating that muscovites can retain Ar diffusion boundaries and mechanisms that define their natural retentivity during vacuum step heating. This may permit the application of high resolution, continuous ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology to low grade, regionally metamorphosed terranes.     

Relict silicate inclusions in extraterrestrial chromite and their use in the classification of fossil chondritic material

Chromite is the only common meteoritic mineral surviving long-term exposure on Earth, however, the present study of relict chromite from numerous Ordovician (470 Ma) fossil meteorites and micrometeorites from Sweden, reveals that when encapsulated in chromite, other minerals can survive for hundreds of millions of years maintaining their primary composition. The most common minerals identified, in the form of small (<1-10 μm) anhedral inclusions, are olivine and pyroxene. In addition, sporadic merrillite and plagioclase were found.Analyses of recent meteorites, holding both inclusions in chromite and corresponding matrix minerals, show that for olivine and pyroxene inclusions, sub-solidus re-equilibration between inclusion and host chromite during entrapment has led to an increase in chromium in the former. In the case of olivine, the re-equilibration has also affected the fayalite (Fa) content, lowering it with an average of 14% in inclusions. For Ca-poor pyroxene the ferrosilite (Fs) content is more or less identical in inclusions and matrix. By these studies an analogue to the commonly applied classification system for ordinary chondritic matrix, based on Fa in olivine and Fs in Ca-poor pyroxene, can be established also for inclusions in chromite. All olivine and Ca-poor pyroxene inclusions (>1.5 μm) in chromite from the Ordovician fossil chondritic material plot within the L-chondrite field, which is in accordance with previous classifications. The concordance in classification together with the fact that inclusions are relatively common makes them an accurate and useful tool in the classification of extraterrestrial material that lacks matrix silicates, such as fossil meteorites and sediment-dispersed chromite grains originating primarily from decomposed micrometeorites but also from larger impacts.