Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise

This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany (483 and483 and 391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.     

Giving an account of oneself: The PBRF and the neoliberal university

The New Zealand Performance Based Research Fund (PBRF) has come into being in the last decade in the wider context of the neoliberalising and corporatising of the academy. It is far more than its outward form: that is, an innocent accounting of the research‐related activities of academics for the purposes of determining institutional funding levels. But neither is it only a process that seeks (to use Judith Butler's terms) to constrain, subordinate and discipline individual academics. Drawing on her book, Giving an Account of Oneself (2005), we suggest that the PBRF can also be used to enable and sustain through creating spaces to critique neoliberalising managerialism.     

Plant migration and plant communities at the time of the “green Sahara”

Around 8500 cal years BP, at the time of the maximum of the African Humid Period, lakes and wetlands expanded in the present-day Sahara while large paleodrainages were formed or re-actived, in response to an orbitally-induced increase in monsoon rainfall. It has been suggested that the direct consequence of this increase in rainfall was the northward displacement of the Sahara/Sahel boundary, thought to have reached 23°N in central and eastern Africa. Here, we show a more complex situation characterized by an increase in biodiversity as the desert accommodated more humid-adapted species from tropical forests and wooded grasslands: tropical plant species now found some 400 to 500 km to the south probably entered the desert as gallery-forest formations along rivers and lakes where they benefited from permanent fresh water. At the same time, Saharan trees and shrubs persisted, giving rise to a vegetation that has no analogue today. In this article, we present distribution maps of selected plant species to show both the amplitude of the vegetation change compared to the present and the composition of the past plant communities. We also estimate the migration rate of tropical plant taxa to their northernmost position in the Sahara. This study is based on the use of several data sets: a data set of the modern plant distribution in northern Africa and a data set of modern and fossil pollen sites (from the African Pollen Database, http://fpd.mediasfrance.org/ and http://medias.obs-mip.fr/apd/).     

Holocene alluvial sequences,cumulic soils and fire signatures in the middle Rio Puerco basin at Guadalupe Ruin,New Mexico

We describe a geoarchaeological survey of a 5‐km reach of the Rio Puerco channel and its tributaries, centered on the Guadalupe Ruin, a pueblo of the late 10th–12th centuries A.D. in north‐central New Mexico, with associated pollen, charcoal, micromorphological, and radiocarbon analyses. Severe erosion has drastically bisected the Puerco valley with four primary arroyos entering the western side of the Guadalupe reach of the valley: Tapia, Salado, Guadalupe and “No Name.” We recorded an 11‐m‐tall alluvial sequence marked by four phases of cumulic soil development, interrupted by six major periods of channel entrenchment that occurred at about 4100–3700 B.C. and 2900–2400 B.C., between 2200 B.C. and ca. A.D. 400, pre‐ and post‐ca. A.D. 900–1300, and in the late A.D. 1800s. Relative floodplain stability and associated cumulic soil development occurred prior to ca. 5700 B.C., between ca. 2600 to 2200 B.C. and A.D. 350 and 550, and ca. A.D. 900–1300. Multiple signatures of fires (oxidized sediment and charcoal) were observed in the Arroyo Tapia tributary sequence, especially in deposits dated ca. 6000 and 2600 B.C. These fires may have helped to enhance food resources for game animals by encouraging grass and shrub growth and/or to increase the growth of wild plants and eventually cultigens such as maize. Palynological evidence of maize in the Arroyo Tapia, dated ca. 2600–2200 B.C. may be the earliest thus far identified in the Southwest. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Quality assurance, information tracking, and consumer labeling

Reducing marine-based public health risk requires strict control of several attributes of seafood products, often including location and conditions of catch or aquaculture, processing, and handling throughout the supply chain. Buyers likely will also be interested in other attributes of these products such as eco-friendliness or taste. Development of markets for improved safety, as well as for other quality attributes, requires an effective certification and tracking of these attributes as well as their communication to buyers. Several challenges must be met if labeling, particularly consumer labeling, is to support the development of markets for improved seafood safety.     

Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, USA

Climate change is projected to result, on average, in earlier snowmelt and reduced summer flows in the Pacific Northwest, patterns not well represented in historical observations used in water planning. We evaluate the sensitivities of water supply systems in the Puget Sound basin cities of Everett, Seattle, and Tacoma to historical and projected future streamflow variability and water demands. We simulate streamflow for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s using the distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM), driven by downscaled ensembles of climate simulations archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. We use these streamflow predictions as inputs to reservoir system models for the three water supply systems. Over the next century, under average conditions all systems are projected to experience declines and eventual disappearance of the springtime snowmelt peak. How these shifts affect management depends on physical characteristics, operating objectives, and the adaptive capacity of each system. Without adaptations, average seasonal drawdown of reservoir storage is projected to increase in all three systems throughout the 21st century. Reliability of all systems in the absence of demand increases is robust through the 2020s however, and remains above 98% for Seattle and Everett in the 2040s and 2080s. With demand increases, however, reliability of the systems in their current configurations and with current operating policies progressively declines through the century.     

Fast and easy method for seagrass monitoring: application of acoustic telemetry to precision mapping of Posidonia oceanica beds

Posidonia oceanica is an endemic seagrass from the Mediterranean Sea. It is an indicator of water quality and of the ecological state of coastal ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to test acoustic telemetry for monitoring the position of P. oceanica meadow limits with varied types. After evaluating the accuracy of the system, we present results from a spatiotemporal survey of P. oceanica meadows on nine sites located on the French coast. The method has been demonstrated to be highly efficient for high precision underwater mapping regardless of meadow type, with 1 cm accuracy for a distance of 40 m between the base and the pointer. A temporal survey led at Cerbere-Banyuls shows a weak global progression of 4 m² (progression of 26 m² - regression of 22 m²) between 2006 and 2010. Finally, we discuss the cost and efficiency of this method, and wether it should be generalized for further studies.     

Historical channel narrowing along the Rio Grande near Albuquerque,New Mexico in response to peak discharge reductions and engineering: magnitude and uncertainty of change from air photo measurements

Over the last century, geomorphic processes along the Middle Rio Grande have been altered by flood control and bank stabilization projects, intensified land and water use, and climate change. In response to potential risks to infrastructure and ecological integrity, recent (1985–2008) adjustment was investigated and historic (1918–1985) changes in Rio Grande channel planform through the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area were reviewed, especially in relation to changes in annual peak discharge and river engineering measures. Using a GIS, channel characteristics were digitized from georeferenced photographs and analyzed with particular attention to quantifying potential measurement error and its propagation. Error associated with average channel widths and channel area ranged between 4 and 13%. For smaller polygons, e.g. islands, error was higher (11 to 40% for width and >200% for area) because width error is large relative to polygon width. Between 1918 and 1963, average channel widths decreased 8 m/yr, from 516 ± 67 m to 176 ± 7 m, mostly due to decreasing peak flows and the implementation of flood control and other engineering measures. From 1985 to 2008, widths decreased 0·7 m/yr, from 176 ± 23 m to 146 ± 5 m, accompanied by an increase in vegetated island area which largely coincided with low flow periods. Narrowing was concentrated at tributary inputs and in the upstream part of the reach, where bedload trapping by Cochiti Dam has caused degradation. Bank protection structures and dense vegetation limit bank erosion in the reach, but erosion is significant where expanding islands, incision, and increased meandering force water against banks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The interior rifts of the Yemen - analysis of basin structure and stratigraphy in a regional plate tectonic context

The full extent of Mesozoic rift basins within interior Yemen has only recently been established. This work presents a detailed documentation of the stratigraph)., structure and basin development of the Marib-Shabwa and Sirr-Sayun basins, and the Jeza Trough. Yemen is located at the south-western margin of the Arabian Plate, which for most of its early geological history formed part of the northern passive margin of Gondwanaland. Mesozoic break up of the super-continent was associated with major rifting in the Late Jurassic (main phase) and Early Cretaceous. Orientation of the rift basins reflects an inheritance from deep-seated Precambrian structural trends which cross the Arabian Plate. The resultant structure of basement highs, tilted fault blocks, marginal terraces and central graben highs is illustrated in a series of detailed cross-sections. A comprehensive stratigraphic framework has also been established for the Jurassic and Cretaceous basin-fill, enabling thickness and facies variations to be analysed. This reveals a clear shift in the main period of fault-related, high sediment accumulation rates, both within and across the three interior basins of Yemen. In the western Marib-Shabwa Basin, the fill is dominantly Late Jurassic, whilst the eastern Shabwa Basin and Sirr-Sayun Basin exhibit a progressively increased, and younger, Early Cretaceous fill. The main period of fault-related sedimentation in the most easterly basin, the Jeza Trough, is wholly Cretaceous. Plate tectonic reconstructions of the area for this period have documented the separation and subsequent north-eastward movement of the Indian Plate, away- from Africa-Arabia. We believe this may have been the causal mechanism in the progressive eastward migration of rift activity in the Yemen.     

Middle Pleistocene age of the Nome River glaciation, northwestern Alaska

During the middle Pleistocene Nome River glaciation of northwestern Alaska, glaciers covered an area an order of magnitude more extensive than during any subsequent glacial intervals. The age of the Nome River glaciation is constrained by laser-fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar analyses of basaltic lava that overlies Nome River drift at Minnie Creek, central Seward Peninsula, that average 470,000 ± 190,000 yr (±1σ). Milligram-size subsamples of the lava were dated to identify and eliminate extraneous ⁴⁰Ar enrichments that rendered the mean of conventional K---Ar dates on larger bulk samples of the same flow too old (700,000 ± 570,000 yr). While the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar analyses provide a minimum limiting age for the Nome River glaciation, maximum ages are provided by a provisional K---Ar date on a basaltic lava flow that underlies the Nome River drift at nearby Lave Creek, by paleomagnetic determinations of the drift itself at and near the type locality, and by amino acid epimerization analysis of molluscan fossils from nearshore sediments of the Anvilian marine transgression that underlie Nome River drift on the coastal plain at Nome. Taken together, the new age data indicate that the glaciation took place between 580,000 and 280,000 yr ago. The altitude of the Anvilian deposits suggests that eustatic sea level during the Anvilian transgression rose at least as high as and probably higher than during the last interglacial transgression; by correlation with the marine oxygen-isotope record, the transgression probably dates to stage 11 at 410,000 yr, and the Nome River glaciation is younger still. Analyses of floor altitudes of presumed Nome River cirques indicate that the Nome River regional snowline depression was at least twice that of the maximum late Wisconsin. The cause of the enhanced snowline lowering appears to be related to greater availability of moisture in northwestern Alaska during the middle Pleistocene.