Potential implications of global warming and barrier island degradation on future hurricane inundation,property damages,and population impacted

Hurricane flooding is a leading natural threat to coastal communities. Recent evidence of sea level rise coupled with potential future global warming indicate that sea level rise will accelerate and hurricanes may intensify over the coming decades. In regions fronted by barrier islands, the protective capacity of these islands may diminish as they are degraded by rising sea level. Here we present a hydrodynamic and geospatial analysis of the relative role of barrier island degradation on potential future hurricane flooding. For the City of Corpus Christi, Texas, USA, hurricane flooding is projected to rise between 20% and 70% by the 2030s, resulting in an increase in property damages and impacted population. These findings indicate that adaptive management strategies should be developed and adopted for mitigating loss of natural barrier islands when these islands act as protective features for populated bayside communities. Finally, this study illustrates a method for applying models to forecast future storm protection benefits of barrier island restoration projects.     

Intraspecific Interactions and Risk of Predation for Dyspanopeus sayi (Decapoda: Xanthidae) Living on Polychaete (Filograna implexa,Serpulidae) Colonies*

Abstract. Along the Atlantic coast of the United States, the mud crab Dyspanopeus sayi frequently occurs in crevices and depressions within aggregated calcareous tubes (termed “heads”) of the serpulid polychaete Filograna implexa. In New Jersey, U.S.A., waters, crab number was significantly correlated with the logarithm of worm tube colony volume. Laboratory experiments suggested that crabs compete for shelter within worm colonies. Additional laboratory experiments indicated that colony occupancy greatly decreased the risk of predation by blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus), and field tethering experiments also demonstrated that colony occupancy significantly decreased predation risk. Thus, the consequence of holding space on worm tube heads is a greatly increased probability of survival.     

Seasonal factors affecting egg production and viability of eggs of Acartia tonsa Dana from East Lagoon, Galveston, Texas

Egg production and hatching success were determined between March 1981 and March 1982 for the copepod Acartia tonsa Dana from East Lagoon, Galveston, Texas. During three-day experiments in the laboratory, field collected females were fed diets of (1) natural particles collected over the water column, (2) some modification of this and (3) the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii. The latter served to isolate the effects of temperature and salinity from the effects of the natural particle diets on egg production. Specific rates of egg production, i.e. μg egg biomass/μg body biomass/time, were consistently higher per unit carbon than nitrogen.The influence of seasonal factors on egg production was compared. Salinity was inversely correlated with egg production, but had less effect than temperature. Positive correlations with temperature were always higher for specific rates per unit nitrogen than carbon. At 15°C, females produced 0·25 of their body carbon (or nitrogen) as eggs per day, whereas at 28°C, they produced at least their own biomass as eggs per day (up to 1·80). These high rates of A. tonsa were probably due to its reproductive biology and adaptation to the subtropical habitat as well as the high temperatures and food concentrations. The correlation between specific egg production rate and temperature was less with the natural particle diets than with the unialgal diet. This indicated that the quantity or quality of natural particle assemblages in East Lagoon influenced egg production. Egg viability was highest in the spring, but was not related to diet or the percentage of females with spermatophores.     

SST observations of upwelling induced by tidal straining in the Rhine ROFI

In this paper SST imagery and a three-dimensional numerical model of a river plume were employed to detect upwelling induced by tidal straining in the Rhine ROFI (region of fresh water influence). Previous studies have shown that the Rhine ROFI in the North Sea exhibits strong cross-shore density gradients that compete with tidal and wind mixing to establish stratification. During neap periods with low mixing energy an area measuring 30 km offshore by 100 km alongshore becomes stratified. When the ROFI is stratified strong cross-shore currents are observed, with surface currents rotating anti-cyclonically and bottom currents rotating cyclonically. The cross-shore currents interact with the cross-shore density gradients to produce a semi-diurnal cycle of stratification. Due to continuity requirements imposed by the proximity of the coast, the offshore-directed surface currents and onshore-directed bottom currents should lead to coastal upwelling.     

Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise

This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany (483 and483 and 391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.     

Evidence of regional subsidence and associated interior wetland loss induced by hydrocarbon production, Gulf Coast region, USA

Analysis of remote images, elevation surveys, stratigraphic cross-sections, and hydrocarbon production data demonstrates that extensive areas of wetland loss in the northern Gulf Coast region of the United States were associated with large-volume fluid production from mature petroleum fields. Interior wetland losses at many sites in coastal Louisiana and Texas are attributed largely to accelerated land subsidence and fault reactivation induced by decreased reservoir pressures as a result of rapid or prolonged extraction of gas, oil, and associated brines. Evidence that moderately-deep hydrocarbon production has induced land-surface subsidence and reactivated faults that intersect the surface include: (1) close temporal and spatial correlation of fluid production with surficial changes including rapid subsidence of wetland sediments near producing fields, (2) measurable offsets of shallow strata across the zones of wetland loss, (3) large reductions in subsurface pressures where subsidence rates are high, (4) coincidence of orientation and direction of displacement between surface fault traces and faults that bound the reservoirs, and (5) accelerated subsidence rates near producing fields compared to subsidence rates in surrounding areas or compared to geological rates of subsidence. Based on historical trends, subsidence rates in the Gulf Coast region near producing fields most likely will decrease in the future because most petroleum fields are nearly depleted. Alternatively, continued extraction of conventional energy resources as well as potential production of alternative energy resources (geopressured-geothermal fluids) in the Gulf Coast region could increase subsidence and land losses and also contribute to inundation of areas of higher elevation.     

A history of violence: magma incubation,timing and tephra distribution of the Los Chocoyos supereruption (Atitlán Caldera,Guatemala)

The climactic Los Chocoyos (LCY) eruption from Atitlán caldera (Guatemala) is a key chronostratigraphic marker for the Quaternary period given the extensive distribution of its deposits that reached both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Despite LCY tephra being an important marker horizon, a radioisotopic age for this eruption has remained elusive. Using zircon (U–Th)/He geochronology, we present the first radioisotopically determined eruption age for the LCY of 75 ± 2 ka. Additionally, the youngest zircon crystallization ²³⁸U–²³⁰Th rim ages in their respective samples constrain eruption age maxima for two other tephra units that erupted from Atitlán caldera, W-Fall (130 ⁺¹⁶/₋₁₄ ka) and I-Fall eruptions (56 ^+8.2/_−7.7 ka), which under- and overlie LCY tephra, respectively. Moreover, rim and interior zircon dating and glass chemistry suggest that before eruption silicic magma was stored for >80 kyr, with magma accumulation peaking within ca. 35 kyr before the LCY eruption during which the system may have developed into a vertically zoned magma chamber. Based on an updated distribution of LCY pyroclastic deposits, a new conservatively estimated volume of ~1220 ± 150 km³ is obtained (volcanic explosivity index VEI > 8), which confirms the LCY eruption as the first-ever recognized supereruption in Central America.     

DIURNAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMERTIME VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES

This study was prompted by the apparent confusion in the meteorological and climatological literature on the time of day very heavy precipitation is most likely to occur. Harmonic analysis and cluster analysis were used to investigate the large-scale spatial variations in the diurnal cycle of very heavy precipitation in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Significant spatial variations in the diurnal cycle of very heavy precipitation were found to exist, and seven largely contiguous regions with unique diurnal characteristics of very heavy precipitation were identified.