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41.
Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Gregory H. R. Henry Karen A. Harper Wenjun Chen Julie R. Deslippe Robert F. Grant Peter M. Lafleur Esther Lévesque Steven D. Siciliano Suzanne W. Simard 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):207-234
Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North. 相似文献
42.
Lara C. Whitely Binder Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos Derek B. Booth Meriel Darzen Marketa McGuire Elsner Richard Fenske Thomas F. Graham Alan F. Hamlet John Hodges-Howell J. Elizabeth Jackson Catherine Karr Patrick W. Keys Jeremy S. Littell Nathan Mantua Jennifer Marlow Don McKenzie Michael Robinson-Dorn Eric A. Rosenberg Claudio O. Stöckle Julie A. Vano 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):351-376
Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington. 相似文献
43.
Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability. 相似文献
44.
45.
Energy and stability in the Full Two Body Problem 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The conditions for relative equilibria and their stability in the Full Two Body Problem are derived for an ellipsoid–sphere
system. Under constant angular momentum it is found that at most two solutions exist for the long-axis solutions with the
closer solution being unstable while the other one is stable. As the non-equilibrium problem is more common in nature, we
look at periodic orbits in the F2BP close to the relative equilibrium conditions. Families of periodic orbits can be computed
where the minimum energy state of one family is the relative equilibrium state. We give results on the relative equilibria,
periodic orbits and dynamics that may allow transition from the unstable configuration to a stable one via energy dissipation.
相似文献
46.
47.
Denton Callander Julie Mooney-Somers Phillip Keen Rebecca Guy Tim Duck Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176
ABSTRACT Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia. 相似文献
48.
Gyan?Chhipi-ShresthaEmail author Julie?Mori Kasun?Hewage Rehan?Sadiq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(2):417-430
Several risk factors associated with the increased likelihood of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have been identified in the literature. These risk factors are mainly related to age, previous CDI, antimicrobial exposure, and prior hospitalization. No model is available in the published literature that can be used to predict the CDI incidence using healthcare administration data. However, the administrative data can be imprecise and may challenge the building of classical statistical models. Fuzzy set theory can deal with the imprecision inherent in such data. This research aimed to develop a model based on deterministic and fuzzy mathematical techniques for the prediction of hospital-associated CDI by using the explanatory variables controllable by hospitals and health authority administration. Retrospective data on CDI incidence and other administrative data obtained from 22 hospitals within a regional health authority in British Columbia were used to develop a decision tree (deterministic technique based) and a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model (fuzzy technique based). The decision tree model had a higher prediction accuracy than that of the fuzzy based model. However, among the common results predicted by two models, 72 % were correct. Therefore, this relationship was used to combine their results to increase the precision and the strength of evidence of the prediction. These models were further used to develop an Excel-based tool called C. difficile Infection Incidence Prediction in Hospitals (CDIIPH). The tool can be utilized by health authorities and hospitals to predict the magnitude of CDI incidence in the following quarter. 相似文献
49.
One Million Years tephra record at IODP Sites U1436 and U1437: Insights into explosive volcanism from the Japan and Izu arcs 下载免费PDF全文
Julie Christin Schindlbeck Steffen Kutterolf Susanne M. Straub Graham D. M. Andrews Kuo‐Lung Wang Maryline J. Mleneck‐Vautravers 《Island Arc》2018,27(3)
The 1 Myr tephra records of IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) Holes U1436A and U1437B in the Izu‐Bonin fore‐ and reararc were investigated in order to assess provenance and eruptive volumes, respectively. In total, 304 tephra samples were examined and 260 primary tephra layers were identified. Tephra provenance was determined by means of major and trace element compositions of glass shards and distinguished between Japan and Izu‐Bonin arc origin of the tephra layers. A total of 33 marine tephra compositions were correlated to the Japan arc and 227 to the Izu arc. Twenty marine tephra layers were correlated between the two drilling sites. Additionally, we defined eleven correlations of marine tephra deposits to major widespread Japanese eruptions; from the 1.05 Ma Shishimuta‐Pink Tephra to the 30 ka Aira‐Tn Tephra, both from Kyushu Island. These eruptions provide independent time markers within the sediment record and six correlations were used to date tephra layers from Japan in Hole U1436A to establish an alternative age model for this hole. Furthermore, the minimum distal tephra volumes of all detected events were calculated, which enabled the comparison of the tephra volumes that derived from the Japan and the Izu‐Bonin arcs. For some of the major Japanese eruptions these are the first volume estimations that also include distal deposits. All of the Japanese tephras derived from events with eruption magnitude Mv ≥ 5.6 and three of the investigated eruptions reach magnitudes Mv ≥ 7. Volcanic events of the Izu‐Bonin arc have mostly eruption magnitudes Mv ≤ 5. 相似文献
50.
While there are numerous thick loess–palaeosol sequences preserved across the Carpathian Basin, well dated sites that provide terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records extending beyond last glacial–interglacial cycle are scarce. Robust chronologies are essential for correlations of loess with other long-term Quaternary records and to further understanding of the palaeoenvironment and climate of this important region beyond the last 125 ka. Here a new geochronology based on 13 post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence ages focused on the lower part of the loess–palaeosol sequence at Erdut is presented. The results show that the lower part of the Erdut profile spans the penultimate glacial cycle (MIS 7 to MIS 5). The considerable sediments overlaying the investigated part of the profile suggest that this section spans two glacial cycles, rather than the previously suggested one. The most likely source of the discrepancy is the use of uncorrected infrared stimulated luminescence signal, which can cause age underestimation if not accounted for. This study demonstrates the need to revisit sites such as Erdut, re-date them using updated measurement protocols, and update existing palaeoenvironmental interpretations. 相似文献