Weather observations on Whistler Mountain during five storms

A greater understanding of precipitation formation processes over complex terrain near the west coast of British Colombia will contribute to many relevant applications, such as climate studies, local hydrology, transportation, and winter sport competition. The phase of precipitation is difficult to determine because of the warm and moist weather conditions experienced during the wintertime in coastal mountain ranges. The goal of this study is to investigate the wide range of meteorological conditions that generated precipitation on Whistler Mountain from 4–12 March 2010 during the SNOW-V10 field campaign. During this time period, five different storms were documented in detail and were associated with noticeably different meteorological conditions in the vicinity of Whistler Mountain. New measurement techniques, along with the SNOW-V10 instrumentation, were used to obtain in situ observations during precipitation events along the Whistler mountainside. The results demonstrate a high variability of weather conditions ranging from the synoptic-scale to the macro-scale. These weather events were associated with a variation of precipitation along the mountainside, such as events associated with snow, snow pellets, and rain. Only two events associated with a rain–snow transition along the mountainside were observed, even though above-freezing temperatures along the mountainside were recorded 90 % of the time. On a smaller scale, these events were also associated with a high variability of snowflake types that were observed simultaneously near the top of Whistler Mountain. Overall, these detailed observations demonstrate the importance of understanding small-scale processes to improve observational techniques, short-term weather prediction, and longer-term climate projections over mountainous regions.     

Al decay: Heat production and a revised age for Iapetus

We revisit the appropriate energies to be used for computing heat production from ²⁶Al decay. Due to the complexity of the decay scheme of this radioisotope, previous geophysical studies have used values ranging from 1.2 to 4 MeV per decay. The upper bound corresponds to the difference in mass energy between the ²⁶Al and ²⁶Mg ground states. This includes energy carried away by neutrinos, which does not contribute to heating planetary material. The lower bound does not account for the heating caused by the absorption of the γ rays from the excited ²⁶Mg, or for the annihilation energy deposited in the material if the decay occurs inside even small planetesimals. Based on the calculations described by Schramm et al. [Schramm, D., Tera, F., Wasserburg, G.J., 1970. The isotopic abundance of ²⁶Mg and limits on ²⁶Al in the early Solar System. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 10, 44-59] updated with the most recent nuclear constants, we recommend using a heat production value of 3.12 MeV per decay, which is the total energy of disintegration minus the energy carried off by the neutrinos. This heat production value is higher than the value used in the modeling of Iapetus by Castillo-Rogez et al. [Castillo-Rogez, J., Matson, D.L., Sotin, C., Johnson, T.V., Lunine, J.I., Thomas, P.C., 2007. Iapetus’ geophysics: Rotation rate, shape, and equatorial ridge. Icarus 190, 179-202] by about a factor 2.5. The resulting estimate of the time of formation of Iapetus is shifted by about 1 Myr, to between ∼3.4 and 5.4 Myr after the production of the calcium-aluminum inclusions (CAIs).     

The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper 1,500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of freshwater across the Greenland–Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification precedes that of the MOC by several years.     

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.     

A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.     

Snowmelt runoff and soil moisture dynamics on steep subalpine hillslopes

Snowmelt water supplies streamflow and growing season soil moisture in mountain regions, yet pathways of snowmelt water and their effects on moisture patterns are still largely unknown. This study examined how flow processes during snowmelt runoff affected spatial patterns of soil moisture on two steep sub‐alpine hillslope transects in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA. The transects have northeast‐facing and east‐facing aspects, and both extend from high‐elevation bedrock outcrops down to streams in valley bottoms. Spatial patterns of both snow depth and near‐surface soil moisture were surveyed along these transects in the snowmelt and summer seasons of 2008–2010. To link these patterns to flow processes, soil moisture was measured continuously on both transects and compared with the timing of discharge in nearby streams. Results indicate that both slopes generated shallow lateral subsurface flow during snowmelt through near‐surface soil, colluvium and bedrock fractures. On the northeast‐facing transect, this shallow subsurface flow emerged through mid‐slope seepage zones, in some cases producing saturation overland flow, whereas the east‐facing slope had no seepage zones or overland flow. At the hillslope scale, earlier snowmelt timing on the east‐facing slope led to drier average soil moisture conditions than on the northeast‐facing slope, but within hillslopes, snow patterns had little relation to soil moisture patterns except in areas with persistent snow drifts. Results suggest that lateral flow and exfiltration processes are key controls on soil moisture spatial patterns in this steep sub‐alpine location. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ceres’ evolution and present state constrained by shape data

We model Ceres’ thermo-physical-chemical evolution by considering a large range of initial conditions as well as various evolutionary scenarios. Models are constrained by available shape measurements, which point to a differentiated interior for Ceres. We address the role played by hydrothermal activity in the long-term evolution of Ceres and especially the evolution of its hydrosphere. We suggest that models with times of formation shorter than about 5 My after the production of calcium-aluminum inclusions are more likely to undergo hydrothermal activity in their early history, which affects Ceres’ long-term thermal evolution. We evaluate the conditions for preserving liquid water inside Ceres, a possibility enhanced by its warm surface temperature and the enrichment of its hydrosphere in a variety of chemical species. However, thermal modeling of the hydrosphere needs to be further investigated. We show that shape data can help constrain the amount of hydrated silicate in the core, and thus the extent of hydrothermal activity in Ceres. We discuss the importance of these results for the Dawn mission’s arrival at Ceres in 2015.     

Galileo PPR observations of Europa: Hotspot detection limits and surface thermal properties

The Galileo photopolarimeter–radiometer (PPR) made over 100 observations of Europa’s surface temperature. We have used these data to constrain a diurnal thermal model and, thus, map the thermal inertia and bolometric albedo over 20% of the surface. We find an increased thermal inertia at mid-latitudes that is widespread in longitude and does not appear to correlate with geology, albedo, or other observables. Our derived thermophysical properties can be used to predict volatile stability across the surface over the course of a day and in planning of infrared instruments on future missions. Furthermore, while observations in the thermal infrared can and have been used to find endogenic activity, no such activity was detected at Europa. We have calculated the detection limits of these PPR observations and find that 100 km² hotspots with temperatures of 116–1200 K could exist undetected on the surface, depending on the location.     

SHRIMP U–Pb zircon geochronological evidence for Neoarchean basement in western Arnhem Land, northern Australia

The Pine Creek Orogen, located on the exposed northern periphery of the North Australian Craton, comprises a thick succession of variably metamorphosed Palaeoproterozoic siliciclastic and carbonate sedimentary and volcanic rocks, which were extensively intruded by mafic and granitic rocks. Exposed Neoarchean basement is rare in the Pine Creek Orogen and the North Australian Craton in general. However, recent field mapping, in conjunction with new SHRIMP U–Pb zircon data for six granitic gneiss samples, have identified previously unrecognised Neoarchean crystalline crust in the Nimbuwah Domain, the eastern-most region of the Pine Creek Orogen. Four samples from the Myra Falls and Caramal Inliers, the Cobourg Peninsula, and the Kakadu region have magmatic crystallisation ages in the range 2527–2510 Ma. An additional sample, from northeast Myra Falls Inlier, yielded a magmatic crystallisation age of 2671 ± 3 Ma, the oldest exposed Archean basement yet recognised in the North Australian Craton. These results are consistent with previously determined magmatic ages for known outcropping and subcropping crystalline basement some 200 km to the west. A sixth sample yielded a magmatic crystallisation age of 2640 ± 4 Ma. The ca. 2670 Ma and ca. 2640 Ma samples have ca. 2500 Ma metamorphic zircon rims, consistent with metamorphism broadly coeval with emplacement of the volumetrically dominant ca. 2530–2510 Ma granites and granitic gneisses. Neoarchean zircon detritus, particularly in the ca. 2530–2510 Ma and ca. 2670–2640 Ma age span, are an almost ubiquitous feature of detrital zircon spectra of unconformably overlying metamorphosed Palaeoproterozoic strata of the Pine Creek Orogen, and of local post-tectonic Proterozoic sequences, consistent with this local provenance. Neoarchean zircon is also a common detrital component in Palaeoproterozoic sedimentary units across much of the North Australian Craton suggesting the existence of an extensive, if not contiguous, Neoarchean crystalline basement underlying not only a large part of the Pine Creek Orogen, but also much of the North Australian Craton.     

Late Holocene lake-level and lake development signals in Lower Herring Lake, Michigan

Paleolimnological investigations of a marginal lake in the Lake Michigan basin revealed signals of long-term lake-level changes primarily controlled by climatic forces. Multiple analyses identified concurrent signals in sediment chemistry, grain size, and the microfossil record. Coarse-grained sediments, benthic diatoms, and nutrient response species increased as lake levels rose or fell. Finer sediments and higher percentages of taxa associated with stable thermocline conditions occurred during high-lake periods. Sedimentary evidence revealed corresponding strong high-lake signals c. 2500–2200, 1800–1500, 1170–730, and 500–280 BP. Low-lake periods occurred c. 1500–1170 and 700–500 B.P. An additional signal of lake-level decline was apparent beginning c. 280 BP but was interrupted by anthropogenic effects. Evidence of extreme low-lake levels (c. 1400–1300 BP), and signals for a medieval warming period (1030–910 BP) and the Maunder minimum (370–325 BP) indicate occurrence of short-lived dry climatic conditions.