Complex spatial feedbacks of tephra redistribution,ice melt and surface roughness modulate ablation on tephra covered glaciers

Tephra fallout from the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption onto Svínafellsjökull, Iceland, created an ice‐ash landscape of a type that is rarely studied but is nevertheless common in glacio‐volcanic regions. We used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to measure ice surface topography and absorption at high spatial resolution, confirming ablation rates either reduce or increase under thick (insulating) and thin (reduced albedo) ash deposits, respectively. Fourier transform analysis of the TLS data identified that a three‐fold increase in aerodynamic roughness was attributable to an increase in larger (> 0·2 m) surface features. Moreover, TLS measurements revealed the importance of ash redistribution by meltwater in generating differential melting which modifies roughness and ash patchiness, such that the net effect of these spatial ash–ice feedbacks was to reduce ablation rates by up to 59%. The modulating effects of these previously undocumented feedbacks on ablation rates are, therefore, significant and must be correctly parameterized if ash‐covered glacier mass balances are to be predicted correctly. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land cover effects on runoff patterns in eastern Piedmont (USA) watersheds

Physiography and land cover determine the hydrologic response of watersheds to climatic events. However, vast differences in climate regimes and variation of landscape attributes among watersheds (including size) have prevented the establishment of general relationships between land cover and runoff patterns across broad scales. This paper addresses these difficulties by using power spectral analysis to characterize area‐normalized runoff patterns and then compare these patterns with landscape features among watersheds within the same physiographic region. We assembled long‐term precipitation and runoff data for 87 watersheds (first to seventh order) within the eastern Piedmont (USA) that contained a wide variety of land cover types, collected environmental data for each watershed, and compared the datasets using a variety of statistical measures. The effect of land cover on runoff patterns was confirmed. Urban‐dominated watersheds were flashier and had less hydrologic memory compared with forest‐dominated watersheds, whereas watersheds with high wetland coverage had greater hydrologic memory. We also detected a 10–15% urban threshold above which urban coverage became the dominant control on runoff patterns. When spectral properties of runoff were compared across stream orders, a threshold after the third order was detected at which watershed processes became dominant over precipitation regime in determining runoff patterns. Finally, we present a matrix that characterizes the hydrologic signatures of rivers based on precipitation versus landscape effects and low‐frequency versus high‐frequency events. The concepts and methods presented can be generally applied to all river systems to characterize multiscale patterns of watershed runoff. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overturning stability of L-shaped rigid barriers subjected to rockfall impacts

Reinforced concrete barriers are commonly used as defence measures in hilly areas to contain falling boulders and landslide debris. These barriers are conventionally designed to satisfy the conditions of force and momentum equilibrium with a factor of safety. A major limitation of this approach is that the inertial resistance of the barrier is neglected such that the design could be over-conservative. This paper presents a novel displacement-based approach for the assessment of overturning stability of rigid L-shaped barriers subjected to rockfall impacts. Analytical solutions, which are derived based on conservation of momentum and energy, are used to take into account the contributions of the self-weight and, thus, the inertial resistance of the barrier in resisting an impact. The actual amount of energy transferred from the impacting boulder to the barrier is considered by including the coefficient of restitution between the two objects. The accuracy of the analytical solutions has been confirmed by laboratory impact experiments. Numerical assessments conducted using the new solutions indicate that a reasonably sized rigid barrier, due to its own inertial resistance, may adequately withstand the impact action of a heavy boulder rolling down a hillslope without relying on any anchorage to its support. A range of geometric design of the barriers with L-shaped cross sections also has been considered and analysed. The new approach presented in this paper is easy to apply in practice and will be useful for engineers designing concrete barriers as passive rockfall mitigation measures.     

Landscapes on the edge: examining the role of climatic interactions in shaping coastal watersheds using a coastal–terrestrial landscape evolution model

Incised coastal gullies (ICGs) are dynamic features found at the terrestrial‐coastal interface. Their geomorphic evolution is driven by the interactions between processes of fluvial knickpoint migration and coastal cliff erosion. Under scenarios of future climate change the frequency and magnitude of the climatological drivers of both terrestrial (fluvial and hillslope) and coastal (cliff erosion) processes are likely to change, with an adjunct impact on these types of coastal features. Here we explore the response of an incised coastal gully to changes in both terrestrial and coastal climate in order to elucidate the key process interactions which drive ICG evolution. We modify an extant landscape evolution model, CHILD, to incorporate processes of soft‐cliff erosion. This modified version, termed the Coastal‐Terrestrial‐CHILD (CT‐CHILD) model, is then employed to explore the interactions between changing terrestrial and coastal driving forces on the future evolution of an ICG found on the south‐west Isle of Wight, UK. It was found that the magnitude and frequency of storm events will play a key role in determining the future trajectory of ICGs, highlighting a need to understand the role of event sequencing in future projections of landscape evolution. Furthermore, synergistic (positive) and antagonistic (negative) interactions were identified between coastal and terrestrial parameters, such as wave height intensity and precipitation duration, which act to modulate the impact of changes in any one parameter. Of note was the role played by wave height intensity in driving coastal erosion, which was found to play a more important role than sea‐level rise in determining rates of coastal erosion. This highlights the need for a greater focus on wave height in studies of soft‐cliff erosion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics in the supra‐mediterranean belt of the Nebrodi Mountains (Sicily,Italy)

High‐resolution pollen, macrofossil and charcoal data, combined with accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating and multivariate analysis, were used to reconstruct Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics at Urio Quattrocchi, a small lake in the supra‐mediterranean belt in the Nebrodi Mountains of Sicily (Italy). The data suggest that after 10 000 cal a BP increasing moisture availability supported closed forests with deciduous (Quercus cerris, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus spp.) and evergreen (Quercus ilex) species. Species‐rich closed forest persisted until 6850 cal a BP, when Neolithic activities caused a forest decline and affected plant diversity. Secondary forest with abundant Ilex aquifolium recovered between 6650 and 6000 cal a BP, indicating moist conditions. From 5000 cal a BP, agriculture and pastoralism led to the currently fragmented landscape with sparse deciduous forests (Quercus cerris). The study suggests that evergreen broadleaved species were more important at elevations above 1000 m a.s.l. before ca. 5000 cal a BP than subsequently, which might reflect less human impact or warmer‐than‐today climatic conditions between 10 000 and 5000 cal a BP. Despite land use since Neolithic times, deciduous supra‐mediterranean forests were never completely displaced from the Nebrodi Mountains, because of favourable moist conditions that persisted throughout the Holocene. Reconstructed vegetation dynamics document the absence of any pronounced mid‐ or late‐Holocene ‘aridification’ trend at the site, an issue which is controversially debated in Italy and the Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reproductive resilience of ice‐dependent Antarctic silverfish in a rapidly changing system along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (wAP) is globally one of the systems most heavily impacted by climate change, notably steep declines in sea ice extent. In forage species, reproductive resilience to change is particularly important because population fluctuations are rapidly communicated through the system via trophic interactions. The reproductive traits of the ice‐dependent forage species Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica) from different areas along the wAP and at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula were investigated through macroscopic and histological analyses of gonads, with the aim to assess its reproductive potential and to test for spatial differences in fecundity and spawning season. Fish samples were collected in late summer off Charcot Island, in Marguerite Bay and off Joinville Island; no fish were caught in the central wAP. Samples from Charcot Island and Marguerite Bay consisted of adults in developing gonad stage, whereas those from Joinville consisted almost exclusively of juveniles. Mean GSI was relatively low (2–3%) and similar in both sexes, as specimens were still far from being actively reproducing. Developing females exhibited two discrete, though partially overlapping modes of oocytes of different size, with vitellogenic oocytes measuring 0.5–1.0 mm. Absolute and relative fecundity ranged between 3000 and 12,000 eggs per female and between 80 and 190 eggs·g^?1, with a strong relationship between absolute fecundity and body size. These results were consistent with a single population at Charcot Island and Marguerite Bay and indicated substantial reproductive potential, which may mitigate population isolation and reductions in habitat availability but cannot ultimately offset catastrophic loss of spawning habitat linked to sea‐ice retreat.     

Diatom, Pollen, and Chemical Evidence of Postglacial Climatic Change at Big Lake, South-Central British Columbia, Canada

Postglacial climatic conditions were inferred from cores taken from Big Lake in southern British Columbia. Low concentrations of nonarboreal pollen and pigments near the base of the core suggest that initial conditions were cool. Increases in both aquatic and terrestrial production suggest warmer and moister conditions until 8500 cal yr B.P. Hyposaline diatom assemblages, increases in nonarboreal pollen, and increased concentrations of pigments suggest the onset of arid conditions from 8500 to 7500 cal yr B.P. Slightly less arid conditions are inferred from 7500 until 6660 cal yr B.P. based on the diatoms, small increases and greater variability in biogenic silica and pigments, and higher percentages of arboreal pollen. At 6600 cal yr B.P., changes in diatoms, pigments, biogenic silica, and organic matter suggest that Big Lake became fresh, deep, and eutrophic until 3600 cal yr B.P., when water levels and nutrients decreased slightly. Our paleoclimatic inferences are similar to pollen-based studies until 6600 cal yr B.P. However, unlike these studies, our multiple lines of evidence from Big Lake imply large changes in effective moisture since 6000 cal yr B.P.     

A Probabilistic Displacement-based Vulnerability Assessment Procedure for Earthquake Loss Estimation

Earthquake loss estimation studies require predictions to be made of the proportion of a building class falling within discrete damage bands from a specified earthquake demand. These predictions should be made using methods that incorporate both computational efficiency and accuracy such that studies on regional or national levels can be effectively carried out, even when the triggering of multiple earthquake scenarios, as opposed to the use of probabilistic hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra, is employed to realistically assess seismic demand and its consequences on the built environment. Earthquake actions should be represented by a parameter that shows good correlation to damage and that accounts for the relationship between the frequency content of the ground motion and the fundamental period of the building; hence recent proposals to use displacement response spectra. A rational method is proposed herein that defines the capacity of a building class by relating its deformation potential to its fundamental period of vibration at different limit states and comparing this with a displacement response spectrum. The uncertainty in the geometrical, material and limit state properties of a building class is considered and the first-order reliability method, FORM, is used to produce an approximate joint probability density function (JPDF) of displacement capacity and period. The JPDF of capacity may be used in conjunction with the lognormal cumulative distribution function of demand in the classical reliability formula to calculate the probability of failing a given limit state. Vulnerability curves may be produced which, although not directly used in the methodology, serve to illustrate the conceptual soundness of the method and make comparisons with other methods.