Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.     

Lasco and eit Observations of the Bastille day 2000 Solar Storm

The period of 10–14 July 2000 saw a large number of energetic solar events ending with a very energetic flare that was associated with a large solar energetic particle event and a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that produced the largest geomagnetic disturbance since 1989. This paper tries to summarize the complex coronal activity observed during this period, in order to establish a background for a number of papers in this topical issue. The GOES X-ray data are presented. Data animations of observations from EIT and LASCO C2 and C3 are presented on the accompanying CD-ROM. The observations around the time of the three X-class flares are considered. EIT observations of the Bastille Day flare show coronal brightening followed by dimming. LASCO had good data coverage for all three events. For one of the flares, no coronal response was seen. The other two flares are associated with halo CMEs. The timing suggests that the start of the flares and CMEs are simultaneous to approximately 30 min. Analysis of the LASCO and EIT images following the Bastille Day flare show the arrival of energetic particles at SOHO at approximately 10:41 UT on 14 July. Individual features of these CMEs have been tracked and the height–time plots used to estimate the dynamics of the CMEs. The initial speed and deceleration of the halo CMEs estimated from the fitting of height–time plots are compared with the in-situ observations at L1. The three flares are identified as the solar sources of three shocks observed at 1 AU. Finally, it is stressed that global heliospheric effects during periods of exceptional activity should consider a cumulative scenario rather than events in isolation.     

The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past??a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600?years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000?years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.     

A strong-motion database from the Peru–Chile subduction zone

Earthquake hazard along the Peru–Chile subduction zone is amongst the highest in the world. The development of a database of subduction-zone strong-motion recordings is, therefore, of great importance for ground-motion prediction in this region. Accelerograms recorded by the different networks operators in Peru and Chile have been compiled and processed in a uniform manner, and information on the source parameters of the causative earthquakes, fault-plane geometries and local site conditions at the recording stations has been collected and reviewed to obtain high-quality metadata. The compiled database consists of 98 triaxial ground-motion recordings from 15 subduction-type events with moment magnitudes ranging from 6.3 to 8.4, recorded at 59 different sites in Peru and Chile, between 1966 and 2007. While the database presented in this study is not sufficient for the derivation of a new predictive equation for ground motions from subduction events in the Peru–Chile region, it significantly expands the global database of strong-motion data and associated metadata that can be used in the derivation of predictive equations for subduction environments. Additionally, the compiled database will allow the assessment of existing predictive models for subduction-type events in terms of their suitability for the Peru–Chile region, which directly influences seismic hazard assessment in this region.     

Basalt geochemistry and tectonic discrimination within continental flood basalt provinces

Continental flood basalts are usually regarded as a single tectonomagmatic entity but frequently quoted examples exhibit a variety of tectonic settings. In one well-studied, classic, flood basalt province, the Mesozoic Karoo province of southern Africa, magmatism occurred in the following tectonic settings: (a) continental rifting leading to ocean-floor spreading in the South Atlantic Ocean (Etendeka suite of Namibia); (b) stretched continental lithosphere and rifting not leading directly to ocean-floor formation (Lebombo suite of southeastern Africa); and (c) an a-tectonic, within-plate, continental setting characterized by an absence of faulting or warping (Lesotho highlands and Karoo dolerites of South Africa). By means of spidergrams of the elements Rb, Ba, Th, Nb, K, La, Ce, Sr, Nd, P, Hf, Zr, Sm, Ti, Tb, Y, V, Ni and Cr, uncontaminated tholeiites from (c) above [i.e. the Lesotho-type continental flood basalts (LTCFB)] are compared with mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB), ocean-island tholeiites (OIT), and tholeiites and calc-alkali basalts from subduction environments. The comparison reveals the LTCFBs are geochemically distinct. The differences are reflected in relative enrichments or depletions of the more incompatible elements (Rb-Ce) to less incompatible elements (Ce-Y), i.e. the overall slope of the spidergrams, and in anomalous enrichments or depletions of one or more of the elements Th, K, Nb, Sr, Ti, Hf, and Zr. The distinctive geochemical character of the Lesotho LTCFBs is interpreted in terms of a lithospheric mantle source for the basalts. This is supported by isotopic data. There are no major geochemical differences between Lesotho CFBs and basalts of the rift-related Etendeka and Lebombo suites, although the latter are somewhat enriched in Rb, Ba and K. However, unlike the Lesotho basalts, the Lebombo and Etendeka basalts are associated with voluminous silicic volcanics or intrusive centres and late-stage dolerites having MORB/OIT (i.e. asthenospheric) geochemical characteristics. The flood basalt/silicic magmatism/late-stage dyke swarm association is characteristic of several rift or thinned lithosphere environments (e.g., Ethiopia, Skye, eastern Greenland) but in many of these the flood basalts have ocean-island basalt (OIT) geochemical characteristics. The Lesotho-type CFB geochemistry is exhibited by the Grande Ronde Basalt of the Columbia River Group (a possible subduction-related flood basalt province) and the basic rocks associated with Mesozoic rifting in the North and South Atlantic. Basalt geochemistry alone is unhelpful in determining the tectonic setting of CFBs although the rift-related environments may be identified by the petrology and geochemistry of the whole igneous suite. A two-source model is proposed for the mantle-derived basic rocks in rift-related CFB provinces. Early enriched basalts are derived from the lithosphere and, following pronounced lithospheric attenuation or rifting, later MORB-like melts are emplaced from the rising asthenosphere. The presence of both Lesotho- and OIT-type geochemical patterns in rift-related CFBs suggests that the lithosphere exhibits different styles of enrichment.     

Between-Population Differences in Multi-stressor Tolerance During Embryo Development in the American Horseshoe Crab, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Limulus polyphemus</Emphasis>

The American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is found along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts in genetically isolated populations. Eggs are laid in shoreline beaches that expose developing embryos to combinations of environmental stressors. Whether populations of L. polyphemus differ in multi-stressor tolerance had never been tested. We assessed the multi-stressor tolerance of L. polyphemus embryos from a population in Delaware Bay (DE) and determined whether these differed from the multi-stressor tolerance of embryos from a more southerly Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) population. We monitored the field sediment temperatures and determined multi-stressor tolerance of DE embryos, then compared these to published data for FGC embryos. For multi-stressor tolerance, we assessed development success of embryos in 2-week exposures to 36 full-factorial combinations of temperature (20, 25, 30, 35 °C), salinity (5, 15, and 34 ppt), and ambient O₂ (5, 13, and 21% O₂), followed by 2 weeks in recovery conditions. Sediment temperatures in the DE site ranged from 9.5 to 46 °C, with extended periods exceeding 35 °C. Development success was similar between the DE and FGC populations in 14 of 26 multi-stressor combinations. The DE embryos were generally more successful in conditions that included high temperature or moderate hyposalinity, whereas the FGC embryos were generally more successful in conditions that included extreme hyposalinity. This suggests that although multi-stressor tolerances are generally similar between the two populations, specific differences exist that correlate more with differences in nest microenvironment than latitude.     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical investigation of the thermal state of the earth's mantle

An idealized convecting mantle with internal heat generation and viscosity dependent on temperature and pressure is examined with numerical calculations. Temperature and viscosity are coupled and self-regulating in the quasi-steady solutions. The lack of any tendency for upwelling flow to constrict itself to narrow channels argues against the existence of plumes. Unsteadiness is an essential feature of mantle convection, not only for mixing at large Rayleigh numbers, but also to prevent the flow from being impeded by continuous rigid regions.     

Reconstructing Holocene palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography in Ìsafjarðardjúp,northwest Iceland,from two fjord records overprinted by relative sea‐level and local hydrographic changes

We reconstruct palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography of the Ísafjarðardjúp fjord system from two cores – one from the inner fjord and one near the fjord mouth – while separating the potential overprinting of relative sea‐level (RSL) and local fjord hydrographic changes on these records. The inner fjord core (B997‐339) reflects local fjord hydrography; the outer fjord core (MD99‐2266) reflects the regional oceanic signal. Glacial marine conditions ended at ca. 10 200 cal. a BP, indicated by both ice‐rafted debris records. The other proxy records show spatial and temporal variability within the fjord system. At the inner fjord site (B997‐339) foraminiferal assemblages and the δ¹⁸O record indicate lowered RSL between ca. 10 600 and 8900 cal. a BP and document the onset of fjord water overturning at ca. 8900 cal. a BP, which obscured the climate record. At the fjord mouth (MD99‐2266) mass accumulation rates suggest lowered RSL between ca. 10 200 and 5500 cal. a BP and local freshwater and/or reduced salinities of the Irminger Current water masses affected the δ¹⁸O signal between ca. 10 200 and 7900 cal. a BP. At MD99‐2266, foraminiferal fauna record the Holocene Thermal Maximum between ca. 8000 and 5700 cal. a BP and the onset of modern oceanic circulation at ca. 7000 cal. a BP. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.