Different methods for modelling the areal infiltration of a grass field under heavy precipitation

The areal infiltration behaviour of a grass field is studied using a data set of 78 sprinkler infiltration experiments. The analysis of the experimental data shows a distinct event dependency: once runoff begins, the final infiltration rate increases with increasing rainfall intensity. This behaviour is attributed to the effects of small‐scale variability. Increasing rainfall intensity increases the ponded area and therefore the portion of the plot which infiltrates at maximum rate. To describe the areal infiltration behaviour of the grass field the study uses two different model structures and investigates different approaches for consideration of subgrid variability. It is found that the effective parameter approach is not suited for this purpose. A good representation of the observed behaviour is obtained by using a distribution function approach or a parameterization approach. However, it is not clear how the parameters can be derived for these two approaches without a large measurement campaign. The data analysis and the simulations show the great importance of considering the effects of spatial variability for the infiltration process. This may be significant even at a small scale for a comparatively homogeneous area. The consideration of heterogeneity seems to be more important than the choice of the model type. Furthermore, similar results may be obtained with different modelling approaches. Even the relatively detailed data set does not seem to permit a clear model choice. In view of these results it is questionable to use very complex and detailed simulation models given the approximate nature of the problem. Although the principle processes may be well understood there is a lack of models that represent these processes and, more importantly, there is a lack of techniques to measure and parameterize them. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of current trends in climate parameters,river discharge and glaciers in the Aksu River basin (Central Asia)

Abstract

Climate variability and change play a crucial role in the vulnerable system of the Aksu River basin located in Kyrgyzstan and northwest China, providing precious water resources for the intense oasis agriculture of the Xinjiang Province (China). Ubiquitous warming and increase in precipitation (in the lower part of the basin) have been detected. Glaciers in the region are retreating. Seasonal trends in river discharge show an increase. A clear link could be demonstrated between daily temperature and lagged river discharge at two headwater stations in summer. However, the correlation breaks over short periods in the end of summer or beginning of autumn at the Xiehela station, when the high (over 95th percentile) flow peaks caused by the glacier lake outburst floods of the Merzbacher Lake occur. This feature is a challenge for the climate impact assessment in the region, as these regular outbursts have to be represented in the projections for the future as well.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Inspecting the Reliability of Geochemical Facies Identified for the Waterworks' Capture Zone in Germany

Little research attention has been given to validating clusters obtained from the groundwater geochemistry of the waterworks' capture zone with a prevailing lake-groundwater exchange. To address this knowledge gap, we proposed a new scheme whereby Gaussian finite mixture modeling (GFMM) and Spike-and-Slab Bayesian (SSB) algorithms were utilized to cluster the groundwater geochemistry while quantifying the probability of the resulting cluster membership against each other. We applied GFMM and SSB to 13 geochemical parameters collected during different sampling periods at 13 observation points across the Barnim Highlands plateau located in the northeast of Berlin, Germany; this included 10 observation wells, two lakes, and a gallery of drinking production wells. The cluster analysis of GFMM yielded nine clusters, either with a probability ≥0.8, while the SSB produced three hierarchical clusters with a probability of cluster membership varying from <0.2 to >0.8. The findings demonstrated that the clustering results of GFMM were in good agreement with the classification as per the principal component analysis and Piper diagram. By superimposing the parameter clustering onto the observation clustering, we could identify discrepancies that exist among the parameters of a certain cluster. This enables the identification of different factors that may control the geochemistry of a certain cluster, although parameters of that cluster share a strong similarity. The GFMM results have shown that from 2002, there has been active groundwater inflow from the lakes towards the capture zone. This means that it is necessary to adopt appropriate measures to reverse the inflow towards the lakes.     

Forensic hydrology: what function tells about structure in complex settings

Facing the challenges of the European Water Framework Directive and competing demands requires a sound knowledge of the hydrological system. This is a major challenge in regions like Northeast Germany. The landscape has been massively reshaped during repeated advances and retreats of glaciation during the Pleistocene. This resulted in a complex setting of unconsolidated sediments with high textural heterogeneity and with layered aquifer systems, partly confined, but usually of unknown number and extent of single aquifers. The Institute of Landscape Hydrology aims both at a better understanding of hydrological processes and at providing a basis for sustainable water resources management in this region. That would require sound information about the respective regions of interest that are rarely available at sufficient degree of detail. Thus, there is urgent need for alternative approaches. For example, time series of groundwater head, lake water level and stream runoff do not only depend on (unknown) geological structures, but in turn can reveal information about major geological features. To that end, different approaches have been developed and successfully applied at different scales, based both on advanced time series analysis and dimension reduction approaches and on well-known and rather simple methods. This approach has been coined “forensic hydrology”: Like in a crime story, numerous pieces of evidence are combined in a systematic way to end up with a consistent conceptual model about the prevailing cause–effect relationships. An example is given for the Quillow catchment in Northeast Germany in a rather complex geological setting.     

Variability of Climate in Meridional Balkans during the Periods 1675–1715 and 1780–1830 and its Impact on Human Life

The periods from 1675–1715 (Late Maunder Minimum; LMM)and 1780–1830 (Early Instrumental Period; EIP)delineate important parts of the so-called `Little IceAge' (LIA), in which Europe experienced predominantcooling. Documentary data, assembled from a number ofsources, in the course of the EU funded researchproject ADVICE (Annual to Decadal Variability ofClimate in Europe), has been used to locate anddescribe events in the southern Balkans and easternMediterranean. The resulting data has been usedfirstly to investigate the incidence of phenomena suchas crops sterility, famine and epidemics and theirrelationships with climate, and secondly to analysethe extent of variability, particularly the occurrenceof extreme events, such as severe winters (cold, wetor snowy), long periods of drought and wet periods.During the LMM and EIP, more such extreme situationswere apparent compared with the last 50 years of thetwentieth century. From the scattered data found for1675–1715 and 1780–1830, the winter and spring climatein southern Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean,especially during the LMM, can be characterised ascooler and relatively rainier with a highervariability compared with the recent decades.     

A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks

In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management.     

A numerical investigation on the eccentricity growth of GNSS disposal orbits

We present the results of an extensive numerical exploration performed on the eccentricity growth in MEO associated with two possible end-of-life disposal strategies for GNSS satellites. The study calls attention to the existence of values of initial inclination, longitude of ascending node, and argument of perigee that are more advantageous in terms of long-term stability of the orbit. The important role of the initial epoch and a corresponding periodicity are also shown. The present investigation is influential in view of recent analytical and numerical developments on the chaotic nature of the region due to lunisolar perturbations, but also for the upcoming Galileo and BeiDou constellations.     

Estimating groundwater recharge for an arid karst system using a combined approach of time‐lapse camera monitoring and water balance modelling

Groundwater is the principal water resource in semi‐arid and arid environments. Therefore, quantitative estimates of its replenishment rate are important for managing groundwater systems. In dry regions, karst outcrops often show enhanced recharge rates compared with other surface and sub‐surface conditions. Areas with exposed karst features like sinkholes or open shafts allow point recharge, even from single rainfall events. Using the example of the As Sulb plateau in Saudi Arabia, this study introduces a cost‐effective and robust method for recharge monitoring and modelling in karst outcrops. The measurement of discharge of a representative small catchment (4.0 · 10⁴ m²) into a sinkhole, and hence the direct recharge into the aquifer, was carried out with a time‐lapse camera. During the monitoring period of two rainy seasons (autumn 2012 to spring 2014), four recharge events were recorded. Afterwards, recharge data as well as proxy data about the drying of the sediment cover are used to set up a conceptual water balance model. The model was run for 17 years (1971 to 1986 and 2012 to 2014). Simulation results show highly variable seasonal recharge–precipitation ratios between 0 and 0.27. In addition to the amount of seasonal precipitation, this ratio is influenced by the interannual distribution of rainfall events. Overall, an average annual groundwater recharge for the doline (sinkhole) catchment on As Sulb plateau of 5.1 mm has estimated for the simulation period. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved estimation of average warming trend of China from 1951–2010 based on satellite observed land-use data

This paper provides new evidence of regional warming trends from local Chinese observations covering the period 1951–2010. We used satellite-derived land data and weighted urban and rural temperature records (a weighted method) and estimate the regional warming trend, which involves natural climate change and human impact. The annual warming rate over the whole of China is 0.21?±?0.02 °C/decade. The seasonal warming is 0.30?±?0.05 °C/decade (Winter), 0.24 °C?±?0.03 °C/decade (Spring); 0.16?±?0.02 °C/decade (Summer) and 0.21?±?0.03 °C/decade (Autumn). The mean warming trend is lower than previous estimates (e.g. NMIC, CRU-China) using un-weighted methods (arithmetic average of all records). The warming difference between the weighted and un-weighted accounts for 27 % (12 %) of the NMIC (CRU-China) un-weighted estimate on the total warming. This indicates that previous estimations overestimated a regional warming trend. The differences can be partly attributed to the weighting of the urban effect which is taken into consideration in this study, resulting in a much slower temperature increase. Spatially, the northern part of China shows a larger difference than the south especially for winter and spring. We argue that it is of importance to take into consideration the influence of urban land-use change to improve the physical understanding of surface warming in China over past decades.