Comparative analysis of scalar upper tail indicators

ABSTRACT

Different upper tail indicators exist to characterize heavy tail phenomena, but no comparative study has been carried out so far. We evaluate the shape parameter (GEV), obesity index, Gini index and upper tail ratio (UTR) against a novel benchmark of tail heaviness – the surprise factor. Sensitivity analyses to sample size and changes in scale-to-location ratio are carried out in bootstrap experiments. The UTR replicates the surprise factor best but is most uncertain and only comparable between records of similar length. For samples with symmetric Lorenz curves, shape parameter, obesity and Gini indices provide consistent indications. For asymmetric Lorenz curves, however, the first two tend to overestimate, whereas Gini index tends to underestimate tail heaviness. We suggest the use of a combination of shape parameter, obesity and Gini index to characterize tail heaviness. These indicators should be supported with calculation of the Lorenz asymmetry coefficients and interpreted with caution.     

Solar variability and the levels of Lake Victoria,East Africa,during the last millenium

A new diatom series with 1–6 year resolution from Lake Victoria, East Africa, shows that lake level minima occurred ca. 820–760, 680–660, 640–620, 370–340, and 220–150 calendar years BP. Inferred lake levels were exceptionally high during most of the Little Ice Age (ca. 600–200 calendar years BP). Synchrony between East African high lake levels and prolonged sunspot minima during much of the last millenium may reflect solar variabilitys effects on tropical rainfall, but those relationships reversed sign ca. 200 years ago. Historical records also show that Victoria lake levels rose during every peak of the ca. 11-year sunspot cycle since the late 19th century. These findings suggest that, if these apparent tropical sun–climate associations during the last millenium were real, then they were subject to abrupt sign reversals.Electronic Supplementary Material to this article is available at .     

Application of the water balance model J2000 to estimate groundwater recharge in a semi-arid environment: a case study in the Zarqa River catchment, NW-Jordan

Pollution and overexploitation of scarce groundwater resources is a serious problem in the Zarqa River catchment, Jordan. To estimate this resource’s potential, the amount and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge was calculated by applying the hydrological model J2000. The simulation period is composed of daily values gathered over a 30-year period (July 1977 to June 2007). The figure finally obtained for estimated groundwater recharge of the Zarqa River catchment is 105 × 10⁶ m³ per year (21 mm a^?1). This is 19 % higher than the value previously assumed to be correct by most Jordanian authorities. The average ratio of precipitation to groundwater recharge is 9.5 %. To directly validate modelled groundwater recharge, two independent methods were applied in spring catchments: (1) alteration of stable isotope signatures (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) between precipitation and groundwater and (2) the chloride mass balance method. Recharge rates determined by isotopic investigations are 25 % higher, and recharge rates determined by chloride mass balance are 9 % higher than the modelled results for the corresponding headwater catchments. This suggests a reasonably modelled safe yield estimation of groundwater resources.     

Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds

The Scotia Arc is one of two regions in the Atlantic Ocean with greater potential for tsunami generation from seismic and volcanic sources. A numerical modeling study was undertaken to determine tsunami generation from postulated sources along the Arc and tsunami wave amplification or attenuation along the Patagonian continental shelf. Sea level oscillation represented by a simple sinusoidal wave function applied at the boundary of the numerical grid, which simulated the tsunami entering the computational domain, was implemented as forcing. The validation of this model was carried out by comparing the maximum amplitudes recorded and simulated at Santa Teresita and Mar del Plata (Buenos Aires province) after the occurrence of earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Sumatra (December 2004). From numerical simulations it can be seen that the tsunami propagation is highly affected by bathymetric refraction on the Patagonian continental shelf and the wave amplitude is significantly attenuated on the inner continental shelf. Maximum amplifications were obtained around Malvinas (Falkland) Islands and Burdwood bank because the wave propagates almost without refracting and the shoaling effect is highly significant there.     

Storage‐discharge relationships at different catchment scales based on local high‐precision gravimetry

In hydrology, the storage‐discharge relationship is a fundamental catchment property. Understanding what controls this relationship is at the core of catchment science. To date, there are no direct methods to measure water storage at catchment scales (10¹–10³ km²). In this study, we use direct measurements of terrestrial water storage dynamics by means of superconducting gravimetry in a small headwater catchment of the Regen River, Germany, to derive empirical storage‐discharge relationships in nested catchments of increasing scale. Our results show that the local storage measurements are strongly related to streamflow dynamics at larger scales (> 100 km²; correlation coefficient = 0.78–0.81), but at small scale, no such relationship exists (~ 1 km²; correlation coefficients = ?0.11). The geologic setting in the region can explain both the disconnection between local water storage and headwater runoff, and the connectivity between headwater storage and streams draining larger catchment areas. More research is required to understand what controls the form of the observed storage‐discharge relationships at the catchment scale. This study demonstrates that high‐precision gravimetry can provide new insights into the complex relationship between state and response of hydrological systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentation in the floodplains of the Mekong Delta,Vietnam Part II: deposition and erosion

Deposition and erosion play a key role in the determination of the sediment budget of a river basin, as well as for floodplain sedimentation. Floodplain sedimentation, in turn, is a relevant factor for the design of flood protection measures, productivity of agro‐ecosystems, and for ecological rehabilitation plans. In the Mekong Delta, erosion and deposition are important factors for geomorphological processes like the compensation of deltaic subsidence as well as for agricultural productivity. Floodplain deposition is also counteracting the increasing climate change induced hazard by sea level rise in the delta. Despite this importance, a sediment database of the Mekong Delta is lacking, and the knowledge about erosion and deposition processes is limited. In the Vietnamese part of the Delta, the annually flooded natural floodplains have been replaced by a dense system of channels, dikes, paddy fields, and aquaculture ponds, resulting in floodplain compartments protected by ring dikes. The agricultural productivity depends on the sediment and associated nutrient input to the floodplains by the annual floods. However, no quantitative information regarding their sediment trapping efficiency has been reported yet. The present study investigates deposition and erosion based on intensive field measurements in three consecutive years (2008, 2009, and 2010). Optical backscatter sensors are used in combination with sediment traps for interpreting deposition and erosion processes in different locations. In our study area, the mean calculated deposition rate is 6.86 kg/m² (≈ 6 mm/year). The key parameters for calculating erosion and deposition are estimated, i.e. the critical bed shear stress for deposition and erosion and the surface constant erosion rate. The bulk of the floodplain sediment deposition is found to occur during the initial stage of floodplain inundation. This finding has direct implications on the operation of sluice gates in order to optimize sediment input and distribution in the floodplains. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment

For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also information about the elements and values at risk is necessary. This article introduces a methodology for a countrywide estimation of asset values for commercial and industrial properties using Germany as an example. It consists of a financial appraisal of asset values on the municipal level and a further disaggregation by means of land use data. Novelties are the distinction of 60 economic activities, the consideration of production site sizes and the application of a dasymetric mapping technique for a sector-specific estimation and disaggregation of asset values. A validation with empirical data confirms the feasibility of the calculation. The resulting maps can be used for loss estimations e.g. in the framework of cost–benefit analyses that aim to evaluate hazard mitigation measures or for portfolio analyses by banks and insurance companies. The approach can be used for other countries if the necessary data is available (mainly in industrialized countries). In any case, it reveals the critical points when estimating commercial and industrial asset values.     

Spatial and temporal variations of actual soil water repellency and their influence on surface runoff

The increase of surface runoff at the plot scale caused by soil water repellency is a generally accepted phenomenon. However, to improve the understanding of the effect of water repellency on runoff at the catchment scale, spatio‐temporal dynamics of water repellency have to be analysed in more detail. The experimental setup of this study allowed the investigation of the relationship between water repellency and runoff generation on Quaternary and Tertiary sandy substrates while ensuring similar conditions in terms of terrain characteristics, meteorological and vegetation‐free conditions on both areas. Measurements of water drop penetration time and contact angle were carried out over a period from September 2003 to December 2005. Spatial variability of actual soil water repellency was related to heterogeneity of substrate and geomorphologic units, variations in time were related with the seasons and their meteorological conditions. To relate variable degrees of actual water repellency to surface runoff generation, both variables were measured in parallel at the plot scale (1 m × 1 m) and at the hillslope scale from September 2004 to December 2005. Soil water repellency of the Tertiary sands showed a temporal variability depending on the season, with the highest degree during summer and autumn. Variation of hydrophobicity between the seasons caused higher runoff coefficients in summer and autumn. Spatial heterogeneity of the soil water repellency revealed lower values in fine‐textured erosion rills and higher values for interrills and top areas. The measured runoff coefficients decreased from the scale of microplots to the hillslope scale due to infiltration in hydrophilic rills on the hillslope. The results suggest that improved hydrological modelling approaches on water‐repellent soils can be based on a geomorphological subdivision of the catchment area and seasonally varying infiltration parameters. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.