Solar radiative output and its variability: evidence and mechanisms

Electromagnetic radiation from the Sun is Earths primary energy source. Space-based radiometric measurements in the past two decades have begun to establish the nature, magnitude and origins of its variability. An 11-year cycle with peak-to-peak amplitude of order 0.1 % is now well established in recent total solar irradiance observations, as are larger variations of order 0.2 % associated with the Suns 27-day rotation period. The ultraviolet, visible and infrared spectral regions all participate in these variations, with larger changes at shorter wavelengths. Linkages of solar radiative output variations with solar magnetism are clearly identified. Active regions alter the local radiance, and their wavelength-dependent contrasts relative to the quiet Sun control the relative spectrum of irradiance variability. Solar radiative output also responds to sub-surface convection and to eruptive events on the Sun. On the shortest time scales, total irradiance exhibits five minute fluctuations of amplitude %, and can increase to as much as 0.015 % during the very largest solar flares. Unknown is whether multi-decadal changes in solar activity produce longer-term irradiance variations larger than observed thus far in the contemporary epoch. Empirical associations with solar activity proxies suggest reduced total solar irradiance during the anomalously low activity in the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum relative to the present. Uncertainties in understanding the physical relationships between direct magnetic modulation of solar radiative output and heliospheric modulation of cosmogenic proxies preclude definitive historical irradiance estimates, as yet.Received: 26 August 2004, Published online: 16 November 2004 Correspondence to: Claus Fröhlich     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

The super-gentrification of Park Slope,Brooklyn

Studies of classical gentrification typically focus on the embourgeoisement of neighborhoods and displacement of marginalized people. Recently, a new form of gentrification – super-gentrification – has emerged with the expansion of global finance capital, according to urban geographer Loretta Lees. Super-gentrification entails the further upscaling of already gentrified neighborhoods with the in-migration of upper-income residents and displacement of middle class residents, many of whom were among the initial gentrifiers. Despite the attention policy makers, urban planners, and the media are paying to the “middle class squeeze,” few quantitative studies of super-gentrification exist. Using data from the United States Decennial Census, American Community Survey, public residential sales transaction records, and real estate listings, this article sheds light on the landscape of super-gentrification and how to identify it with a quantitative analysis of changes in income, demographics, and housing affordability in the Park Slope neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York since 1970.     

GIS in the K-12 Curriculum: A Cautionary Note

Two qualitative case studies, one focusing on K-12 teachers and the other on middle school students, explore key factors associated with using Geographic Information Systems in the classroom. In both studies, access to appropriate hardware is a critical barrier. Time is another critical barrier—time to learn the GIS software and time in the curriculum to incorporate GIS as a learning experience. In both case studies, learning the technology at the expense of learning spatial analysis was a danger, suggesting the need for conscious focus on the goal of using GIS to learn how to “do geography.”     

Chemical Procedures for Rhenium Extraction from Geological Samples: Optimising the Anion Resin Bead Clean‐up Step

Rhenium–osmium geochronometry for samples with low Re and complex matrices requires improved Re extraction methods. Here, we investigate plausible controls on efficiency and efficacy of Re extraction during our anion resin bead purification. Four different protocols are compared, each isolating a single variable to test. Rhenium concentrations for solutions at each step of each protocol document differences in chemical recovery/yield. The negative‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) signal intensity serves as a proxy for Re yield and purity. These data document correlations between the N‐TIMS signal intensity and (a) the duration of anion resin bead conditioning prior to loading with Re‐bearing solution, and (b) both duration and strength of nitric acid used during rinsing of the Re‐loaded anion resin bead. The optimal protocol improved Re signal intensity around fourteen times compared with our current Re extraction protocol, an aggregate of 2.4 times improvement in chemical recovery (yield) and 5.8 times improvement in emission efficiency (purity). Repeated N‐TIMS isotopic measurements on our in‐house Re standard solution (1407) verify that our optimal protocol‐3 does not fractionate Re isotopes. The improved anion resin bead method considerably lowers the Re detection limit and allows Re‐Os isotopic analysis of picogram‐level Re hosted in geological samples with complex matrices.     

Use of Sonication for Enhanced Sampling of Attached Microbes from Groundwater Systems

The vast majority of microorganisms in aquifers live as biofilms on sediment surfaces, which presents significant challenges for sampling as only the suspended microbes will be sampled through normal pumping. The use of a down-well low frequency sonicator has been suggested as a method of detaching microbes from the biofilm and allowing rapid sampling of this community. We developed a portable, easy to use, low-frequency electric sonicator and evaluated its performance for a range of well depths (tested up to 42 m below ground level) and casing types. Three sonicators were characterized in laboratory experiments using a 1 m long tank filled with pea gravel. These included a commercially available pneumatic sonicator, a rotating flexible shaft sonicator, and the prototype electric sonicator. The electric sonicator detached between 56 and 74% of microbes grown on gravel-containing biobags at distances ranging between 2 and 50 cm from the sonicator. The field testing comprises of a total of 55 sampling events from 48 wells located in 4 regions throughout New Zealand. Pre- and post-sonication samples showed an average 33 times increase in bacterial counts. Microbial sequence data showed that the same classes are present in pre- and post-sonicated samples and only slight differences were seen in the proportions present. The sampling process was rapid and the significant increases in bacterial counts mean that microbial samples can be quickly obtained from wells, which permits more detailed analysis than previously possible.     

Bench development along the regulated,lower River Dee,UK

Channel change to regulated flows along large lowland rivers with cohesive bank materials has been investigated on the lower Welsh Dee, including the tidally influenced reach. Reduction of channel width has involved the formation of a 5–40m wide discontinuous bench, often linking ‘point’ and ‘concave’ locations. Map evidence shows that wide benches occur where historically the channel had migrated laterally; narrow benches were found at stable channel locations. Auger cores of the bench deposits clearly differentiated the two contrasting depositional environments within meandering rivers: ‘point bench’ and ‘concave bench’. Around an individual bend a morphologically continuous bench showed a gradient in sediment characteristics from coarser sediments (point locations) to finer organic deposits (concave locations); it also showed a topographic gradient, gaining 0.5m in elevation around the bend suggesting that bench accretion at concave locations is faster than at point locations in fluvially dominated reaches. Such patterns are suggested to have important implications for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bed material transport estimated from the virtual velocity of sediment

This study evaluates the possibility of determining bed material transport using the virtual rate of travel of individual particles, dimensions of the active layer of the streambed, and porosity and density of streambed material. Magnetically tagged stones and scour indicators were employed in Carnation Creek, British Columbia, to quantify transport rates. Observations cover flows up to 36 m³ s⁻¹ (τ* = 0·081). Transport rates, ranging from 0·090 to 9·7 kg s⁻¹ (0·12–13·2 m³ h⁻¹), display a relatively sensitive trend with maximum stream power, as expected. Error analysis indicates that uncertainty in virtual velocity covers the majority of sample variance. An evaluation of the two measurement techniques used to delineate active layer dimensions, magnetically tagged stones and scour indicators, indicates that they yield comparable depths, widths and transport rates over the range of flows observed. Issues for further study are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Benthic Community Structure and Sediment Properties in Barnegat Bay,New Jersey,Before and After Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was an extraordinarily large storm that affected most of the eastern coast of the USA in October 2012. To assess this storm’s impact, the benthic invertebrate community structure and sediment properties were compared in samples collected 3.5 months prior to (July 2012) and 8 months after (July 2013) the hurricane at 97 locations in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, USA. Barnegat Bay is a shallow back-barrier estuary just north of where Sandy made landfall. For all locations taken together, sediment total nitrogen concentration was lower afterwards, while total organic carbon and total phosphorus concentrations were similar. Sediment median particle size was the same before and after, but the sediment was better sorted after the storm. There were no differences in total abundance of invertebrates, species richness, species diversity, or the abundance of polychaetes, bivalves, or gastropods. Malacostracan crustaceans were more abundant after Sandy (average 82 (0.04 m²)^?1) than they were before (average 64), due almost entirely to increased abundance of ampeliscid amphipods, which showed a shift toward smaller sizes in 2013. Annelids in the order Clitellata were on average less abundant after the hurricane (17) than before (53). The apparent minimal effect of Sandy on the benthic community in Barnegat Bay was probably because the passage of the hurricane had no detectable effects on salinity or dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout the bay.