Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.     

InFOCμS Hard X-ray Imaging Telescope

InFOCμS is a new generation balloon-borne hard X-ray telescope with focusing optics and spectroscopy. We had a successful 22.5-hour flight from Fort Sumner, NM on September 16,17, 2004. In this paper, we present the performance of the hard X-ray telescope, which consists of a depth-graded platinum/carbon multilayer mirror and a CdZnTe detector. The telescope has an effective area of 49 cm² at 30 keV, an angular resolution of 2.4 arcmin (HPD), and a field of view of 11 arcmin (FWHM) depending on energies. The CdZnTe detector is configured with a 12 × 12 segmented array of detector pixels. The pixels are 2 mm square, and are placed on 2.1 mm centers. An averaged energy resolution is 4.4 keV at 60 keV and its standard deviation is 0.36 keV over 128 pixels. The detector is surrounded by a 3-cm thick CsI anti coincidence shield to reduce background from particles and photons not incident along the mirror focal direction. The inflight background is 2.9 × 10⁻⁴ cts cm⁻² sec⁻¹ keV⁻¹ in the 20–50 keV band.     

Performance of Jacobi preconditioning in Krylov subspace solution of finite element equations

This paper examines the performance of the Jacobi preconditioner when used with two Krylov subspace iterative methods. The number of iterations needed for convergence was shown to be different for drained, undrained and consolidation problems, even for similar condition number. The differences were due to differences in the eigenvalue distribution, which cannot be completely described by the condition number alone. For drained problems involving large stiffness ratios between different material zones, ill‐conditioning is caused by these large stiffness ratios. Since Jacobi preconditioning operates on degrees‐of‐freedom, it effectively homogenizes the different spatial sub‐domains. The undrained problem, modelled as a nearly incompressible problem, is much more resistant to Jacobi preconditioning, because its ill‐conditioning arises from the large stiffness ratios between volumetric and distortional deformational modes, many of which involve the similar spatial domains or sub‐domains. The consolidation problem has two sets of degrees‐of‐freedom, namely displacement and pore pressure. Some of the eigenvalues are displacement dominated whereas others are excess pore pressure dominated. Jacobi preconditioning compresses the displacement‐dominated eigenvalues in a similar manner as the drained problem, but pore‐pressure‐dominated eigenvalues are often over‐scaled. Convergence can be accelerated if this over‐scaling is recognized and corrected for. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL STUDIES OF CONVECTION-RELATED STELLAR PROBLEMS

1　IntroductionManybottlenecksinthetheoreticalstudyofstellarevolutionarisefromthelackofunder standingofsomehighlycomplicatedprocessesthatcannotbetreatedwithanalyticaltech niques .Alargeportionoftheseprocessesisrelatedtohydrodynamics,particularlyconvec tion .Theapplicationofmultidimensionalnumericalcomputationstotheinvestigationofthesedifficultproblemshasmadegreatprogressinrecentyears .Here ,weprovideasurveyoftherecentnumericalstudiesofconvectionrelatedproblems.Theobjectiveistoassistthosewhoar…     

Seismic stratigraphy, buried beach ridges and contourite drifts: the Late Quaternary history of the closed Lago Cardiel basin, Argentina (49°S)

The results of a seismic stratigraphic analysis of a closed lake basin, Lago Cardiel, in southernmost South America are reported. Very few high-resolution, continental records spanning the Late Quaternary have been obtained from this region. Seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis allows a reconstruction of lake level variations. Two major hiatuses of unknown age occurred during the early evolution of the basin with the deposition of an alluvial fan in a restricted area in the intervening time period. Following the development of a relatively shallow lake during the late Pleistocene and a short desiccation pulse around 11 220 ¹⁴C yr BP, a transgression of over 135 m occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. The transgression was associated with the formation of beach ridges preserved in the lake stratigraphy on the floor of the modern Lago Cardiel at four different elevations. The preservation of largely unreworked beach ridges indicates a stepwise rise in the lake level. There is no seismic evidence of a major lowering of the lake below modern level during the entire Holocene. Deposition since the mid-Holocene is marked by strong lateral differences in sediment accumulation with a depocentre slightly to the north of the basin midpoint and a pronounced mounded distribution. Seismic reflection geometries, as well as sedimentological characteristics indicate a lacustrine contourite drift covering an area of 80–100 km². As Lago Cardiel is under the influence of westerly winds, these most likely drove lake circulation. The identification of drowned beach ridges and of contourite drifts illustrates that high-resolution seismic stratigraphy is not only a powerful tool in reconstructing past lake level elevations for closed lake basins, but it can also provide information about the rate of lake level changes and the presence and strength of lake currents.     

Blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in coastal Queensland, Australia: disparate sites, common factors

During the last decade there has been a significant rise in observations of blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the east coast of Queensland, Australia. Whether the increase in cyanobacterial abundance is a biological indicator of widespread water quality degradation or also a function of other environmental change is unknown. A bioassay approach was used to assesses the potential for runoff from various land uses to stimulate productivity of L. majuscula. In Moreton Bay, L. majuscula productivity was significantly (p<0.05) stimulated by soil extracts, which were high in phosphorus, iron and organic carbon. Productivity of L. majuscula from the Great Barrier Reef was also significantly (p<0.05) elevated by iron and phosphorus rich extracts, in this case seabird guano adjacent to the bloom site. Hence, it is possible that other L. majuscula blooms are a result of similar stimulating factors (iron, phosphorus and organic carbon), delivered through different mechanisms.     

Drift plastic—An expanding niche for a marine invertebrate?

Beach collection of plastic litter washed ashore at Fort Pierce on the Atlantic coast of Florida showed that, while some of this material may have had a local source, much of the rest originated in the Caribbean. During its pelagic existence the plastic commonly became encrusted by marine organisms. In contrast to the diverse assemblage of organisms associated with pelagic Sargassum, however, the number of species encrusting drift plastic was limited, being dominated primarily by the colonies of the bryozoan, Electra tenella, an organism which may be increasing its abundance and distribution, due to increasing amounts of drift plastic substrata.     

SDINS/GPS in-flight alignment using GPS carrier phase rate

The alignments of the strapdown inertial navigation system (SDINS) utilizing GPS carrier phase rate measurements is introduced. In this paper, a measurement model of GPS carrier phase rate under two antenna configurations is derived in order to be used for the SDINS alignment process. For in-flight alignment, the performance of the proposed SDINS/GPS integration method is analyzed using the covariance analysis and the overall performance is briefly confirmed by the navigation result of a van test. Furthermore, we find that during in-flight alignment the proposed SDINS/GPS integrated system using GPS carrier phase rate measurements can be implemented in real time because the integer ambiguity problem resulting from carrier phase measurements is avoided.