A semi-analytical model of barotropic and baroclinic flows for an open Panama Gateway

A semi-analytical model of the Panama throughflow is presented. The model expresses the throughflow transport as a function of deep water formation in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, and of the Panama Gateway depth. The model is derived from the integral of the momentum equation along a circumpolar path, and can be interpreted from the point of view of the vorticity balance. The important conditions are whether the deep water, whose location is considered to be above the bottom water formed around Antarctica, originates from the North Atlantic or from the North Pacific, and whether the Panama Gateway is shallower than the lower boundary of the deep water. The present model indicates that the barotropic transport through the Panama Gateway is eastward, except for the case where the deep water is formed in the North Pacific and the sill of the Panama Gateway is shallow. The baroclinic structure of the Panama throughflow depends on whether the deep water is formed in the North Pacific or in the North Atlantic. These qualitative implications of the model are consistent with recent numerical studies and proxy-based paleoceanographic studies. Numerical experiments performed in the present study reinforce confidence in the semi-analytical model.     

基于GODAS数据的西太平洋暖池热状态特征及其对ENSO事件的影响

利用1981—2011年共31 a美国GODAS月平均次表层海温资料,以5~366 m次表层垂直平均海温表征上层海洋热含量(HC),运用合成、相关等统计学方法,分析了西太平洋暖池(以下简称暖池)热状态气候特征及其对ENSO事件的影响。结果表明:暖池区HC异常变化最大,异常变化最大的区域与其高值中心区域并不重合,而是在经向上向其两侧偏离;暖池区HC季节变化与SST季节变化高度一致,年际变率大于SST的年际变率;暖池热状态与ENSO事件有密切联系,最大冷(暖)异常恰好对应于ENSO循环过程中的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)事件,并且ENSO事件前期暖池HC存在明显东传信号。     

江苏水稻障碍型冷害时空变化特征及敏感性分析

利用江苏35站1961—2014年的气象观测数据和水稻产量数据,基于ArcGis软件统计分析了水稻关键生育期内低温冷害的时空变化特征和敏感性。结果表明：（1）低温冷害总次数呈现“北多南少”的总体特征,20世纪70年代发生的冷害次数最多,21世纪00年代为第二高值期;（2）全省低温冷害持续天数主要是3～6 d,其中持续3 d的比重最大,平均占50%左右,淮北存在6 d以上的低温冷害过程,但比重基本不足10%,淮北遭遇低温冷害的时间要早于淮南,淮南基本上都是在9月上旬才会发生;（3）低温冷害总体发生几率存在“北大南小”的特征,年代际波动明显,20世纪70年代的发生几率最大,21世纪00年代次之,20世纪80—90年代最小;（4）江苏西北部低温冷害强度最强,21世纪00年代低温冷害强度最强,20世纪70年代次之,20世纪80—90年代最弱;（5）江苏中部是水稻对低温冷害的高敏感地区。     

Projections of Extreme Rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st Century

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong in the 21st century wereinvestigated by statistically downscaling 30 sets of the daily global climate model projections (involvinga combination of 12 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios,namely,A2,A1B,and B1) of theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.To cater for the intermittentand skewed character of the daily rainfall,multiple stepwise logistic regression and multiple stepwise linearregression were employed to develop the downscaling models for predicting rainfall occurrence and rainfallamount,respectively.Verification of the simulation of the 1971-2000 climate reveals that the models ingeneral have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong.Theprojection results suggest that,in the 21st century,the annual number of rain days in Hong Kong is expectedto decrease while the daily rainfall intensity will increase,concurrent with the expected increase in annualrainfall.Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean,the annual number of rain day is expected todrop from 104 days in 1980-1999 to about 77 days in 2090-2099.For extreme rainfall events,about 90% ofthe model-scenario combinations indicate an increase in the annual number of days with daily rainfall 100mm (R100) towards the end of the 21st century.The mean number of R100 is expected to increase from 3.5days in 1980-1999 to about 5.3 days in 2090-2099.The projected changes in other extreme rainfall indicesalso suggest that the rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century may also become more extreme with moreuneven distributions of wet and dry periods.While most of the model-emission scenarios in general projectconsistent trends in the change of rainfall extremes in the 21st century,there is a large divergence in theprojections among different model/emission scenarios.This reflects that there are still large uncertainties inmodel simulations of future extreme rainfall events.     

Damage evaluation and conservation treatment of the tenth century Korean rock-carved Buddha statues

This study focuses on the lithological characterization, quantitative deterioration assessment and conservation treatment of the tenth century rock-carved Buddha statues in Korea. The Buddha statues were carved on light gray macrocrystalline biotite granite, and features microcline phenocrysts and pegmatite patches. The rock-forming minerals are quartz, plagioclase, microcline and biotite showing micrographic and porphyritic textures. Feldspars and biotite in the host rock have been partly altered into sericite and chlorite by weathering. The surface of the Buddha statues is remarkably irregular due to granular disintegration and the differential weathering of the quartz and microcline. In addition, horizontal and vertical cracks in the host rock have promoted mechanical weathering. Biological colonization of the statues was serious, and featured dark gray and yellowish green lichen, dark green bryophyte and some plants. The Buddha statues were evaluated as the highly weathered rock by ultrasonic survey. The lower parts under the influence of water and areas with severely broken surfaces showed a much more advanced weathering grade. Therefore, scientific conservation treatment was carried out for the long-term maintenance and conservation of the Buddha statues. After pretests, dry, wet and chemical cleanings were applied to the statues. Next, joining of cracked parts and surface consolidating were executed. Finally, the site environment was improved by installation of drain and trimming trees around the statues to ensure more stable long-term conservation.     

一例由蓄水诱发的库岸边坡变形

加拿大Oldman坝的库岸边坡主要由近水平、互层的砂岩及泥岩构造，自1993年开始蓄水以来库岸边坡一直处于变形之中。文章在简介区域地质条件、工程地质条件和水库蓄水诱发变形的基础上，对变形诱发机制进行了讨论。基于监测资料分析：（1）由于水库库边坡的卸荷裂隙十分发育， 提供了快速的水力通道， 蓄水期水对库岸边坡稳定存在不利影响；（2）该例的泥岩不存在膨胀性；（3）库岸边坡变形是由于水的快速渗透导致有效应力降低和泥岩软化，库岸边坡应力重新调整引起的；（4）对于软岩边坡，特别是库岸软岩边坡变形稳定分析比强度稳定分析更重要。     

黄河源区鄂陵湖湖面和湖边草地对流边界层湍流结构特征的大涡模拟研究

为研究黄河源区边界层湍流特征及其对物质和能量输送的影响,本文首次采用大涡模拟的方法,对比分析了黄河源区两种不同下垫面上(鄂陵湖和湖边草地)对流边界层(CBL)中精细的湍流结构特征.使用资料为2012年夏季黄河源区鄂陵湖流域野外观测实验的GPS探空资料、涡动相关观测资料.分析表明,模拟的黄河源区草地和湖上CBL的平均结构...     

The Response of Anomalous Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Patterns Related to Drought and Flood in Southern China to Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

With the extreme drought (flood) event in southern China from July to August in 2022 (1999) as the research object, based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022, it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF) anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence (VIMFC) anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years, and the VIMFC, a physical quantity, can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the "strong signal" of drought and flood in southern China. Specifically, in drought years, the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent, while those are opposite in flood years. Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022, five SST high impact areas (i.e., the North Pacific Ocean, Northwest Pacific Ocean, Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and East Pacific Ocean) are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months (May and June) and in the study period (July and August) in 1961-2022, and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified. Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport. Furthermore, it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other, namely an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China. These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought (flood) in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.