下扬子地区幕府山组陆缘海-台地黑色细粒沉积岩系沉积学和孔隙结构特征

黑色细粒沉积岩系沉积学和孔隙结构研究对于沉积环境恢复、页岩气储层评价和有利储层预测具有重要意义.利用下扬子地区最新完钻的XYZ-1钻井资料,综合钻井岩心、岩石薄片、XRD分析、氩离子-场扫描电镜等手段,开展幕府山组细粒沉积岩系的沉积学和孔隙结构研究.结果表明,幕府山组岩性组成以块状、纹层状深色(碳质)泥岩、浅灰色纹层状...     

双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”,为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响,首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化,构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架,结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析,并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应,其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果,但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力;其次是创新力、内源力和外向力,其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2(2010—2018年)超越行政力的作用效应;最后是制度力;间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程,构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题,并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造...     

Numerical analysis of the effect of natural microcracks on the supercritical CO2 fracturing crack network of shale rock based on bonded particle models

The problem of predicting the geometric structure of induced fractures is highly complex and significant in the fracturing stimulation of rock reservoirs. In the traditional continuous fracturing models, the mechanical properties of reservoir rock are input as macroscopic quantities. These models neglect the microcracks and discontinuous characteristics of rock, which are important factors influencing the geometric structure of the induced fractures. In this paper, we simulate supercritical CO₂ fracturing based on the bonded particle model to investigate the effect of original natural microcracks on the induced‐fracture network distribution. The microcracks are simulated explicitly as broken bonds that form and coalesce into macroscopic fractures in the supercritical CO₂ fracturing process. A calculation method for the distribution uniformity index (DUI) is proposed. The influence of the total number and DUI of initial microcracks on the mechanical properties of the rock sample is studied. The DUI of the induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing and hydraulic fracturing for different DUIs of initial microcracks are compared, holding other conditions constant. The sensitivity of the DUI of the induced fractures to that of initial natural microcracks under different horizontal stress ratios is also probed. The numerical results indicate that the distribution of induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing is more uniform than that of common hydraulic fracturing when the horizontal stress ratio is small.     

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951–2006 using IBIS model

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impoverishment of recent floodplain forest mollusc fauna in the lower Ohře River (Czech Republic) as a result of prehistoric human impact

Analyses of fossil mollusc successions have rarely been used to study the development of floodplain forests during the Holocene. The Oh?e River, located in a prehistorically settled chernozem area in the Czech Republic, is partly situated in Cretaceous marlstones, yielding sediments suitable for fossilization directly in floodplain deposits. We analysed five fossil mollusc successions situated in the lower stretch of the Oh?e River and compared the results with recent mollusc assemblages studied along the entire 256 km of the river. Fossil samples were composed mostly of open‐country species throughout the Holocene or the whole preserved succession. Only some samples also contained woodland assemblages, but these were always greatly impoverished, with a very low frequency of strictly woodland species. Although the natural‐looking appearance of the present‐day floodplain forests of the lower river stretch has resulted in its being declared a nature reserve, modern floodplain forest mollusc assemblages there are also impoverished. This reduction in the distribution of strictly woodland species compared with modern assemblages in the upper stretch of the river seems to be the result of an ancient human settlement and continuous disturbances of the floodplain forest development since the Neolithic. Thus, fully developed floodplain forest assemblages occur recently only in the upper non‐impacted stretch of the river. Based on the studied fossil successions we can conclude that the lower Oh?e River floodplain was probably a mosaic of open and disturbed forest habitats throughout the Holocene. This area is part of a central European landscape island, where forests probably never fully developed and open patches from the early Holocene continually developed into an agricultural landscape.     

Identification of motion parameters from spatio-temporal atmospheric temperature patterns

In near-calm conditions it is difficult to make direct measurements of atmospheric advection reliably and cheaply, particularly at many points over a large area. An alternative indirect method is examined using time-series measurements of atmospheric temperature (or any other convenient conserved field variable) at points on a spatial grid.System identification methodology is applied to analyze atmospheric temperature data obtained in such near-calm conditions during an experiment with a low-flying helicopter. A three-parameter numerical model of atmospheric advection has been identified in the temperature data, the advection parameters being an eddy diffusion coefficient and horizontal components of the wind velocity. It has been demonstrated by analysis of all the assumptions, and using simulated data, that in this case the standard least-square procedure can be applied to recover sensible parameter estimates, even though the model is of the error-in-variables type and parameters appear to change abruptly at certain moments of time (but by a reasonably small amount). The parameter estimates have been validated against independent data.     

唐山大震前后震区构造应力场的光弹性模拟实验

本文根据唐山震区的地质构造模拟制作光弹模型,以N60°E方向加压进行唐山震前应力场的光弹性模拟实验。用打孔的方法模拟强震的应力释放。实验结果表明:1.在N60°E方向压缩时,唐山—丰南一带、滦县、野鸡坨和卢龙等地区是最大剪应力集中区,与唐山7.8级、滦县7.1级地震及强余震的震中分布基本吻合。说明唐山大震及余震的发生是近东西向压应力场作用的结果。2.当唐山7.8级地震应力释放后,震前具有高应力背景值的其它地区,应力进一步加强。说明唐山地震的发生导致了应力场的重新调整,增强了强余震发震的动力条件。3.实验结果证明,在断裂带两侧、端部或几条断裂的复合部位,其主应力方向与区域应力场的总体方向比较,大致有10°～25°的偏转。强震的应力释放导致震中区附近的主应力方向与震前相比也发生约10°～20°的偏差。     

中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断

根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。     

中国高放废物处置库选址中灵敏地质特征的初步确认

本文首先根据中国、瑞士和日本3国高放废物处置概念的相似性，建立中国第一处置库系统性能评价模型；然后通过对9个地质变量在8个事件中的灵敏度分析，初步确认出3个灵敏地质物征。此项研究对中国目前高放废物处置库选址工作有一定的指导意义。     

喜马拉雅构造-成矿域及其成矿效应初步分析

通过近年来的研究 ,提出了全新的喜马拉雅构造 -成矿域概念。从大喜马拉雅构造域及其成矿效应出发 ,通过构造域对矿集区的控制作用、成矿时代、成矿物质来源、深部过程与成矿效应的分析 ,从而较全面地评价了青藏高原及邻区的资源潜力和需要进一步工作的重要成矿带或矿集区。通过分析认为喜马拉雅构造 -成矿域内强烈的壳幔物质交换 ,下地壳翻天覆地的物质和流体交换 ,导致了在同一构造地质单元内可以有一个或多个超大型矿床的存在。并对多个重要矿床类型提出了更切合实际的观点 ,如西藏甲马铜钼银铅锌金多金属矿床属于矽卡岩 -斑岩复合型 ,云南羊拉铜钼金多金属矿床也属于矽卡岩 -斑岩复合型矿床等。在喜马拉雅构造域内形成的燕山晚期或喜马拉雅期矿床大多和大陆地壳深部复杂的动力学过程有关 ,所形成的矿床矿物组合及成矿元素组合复杂 ,特别是矿石中钴、银元素含量较高 ,许多矿床中银、钴已经作为主要成矿元素。最后明确提出了青藏高原主体及东缘重要矿集区的资源潜力