Factor of safety in a partially saturated slope inferred from hydro‐mechanical continuum modeling

Rainfall weakens an earth slope and triggers mass movement. Relevant triggering mechanisms are complex and include reduction of capillary pressure due to increased saturation and frictional drag on the sediment induced by fluid flow. Physics‐based continuum models utilizing modern computational tools are useful for understanding the mechanisms of deformation in partially saturated slopes; however, they do not provide a scalar indicator called ‘factor of safety’ that measures the potential of a given slope for mass movement. In the present work, we employ sequential calculations consisting of a physics‐based finite element model that couples solid deformation with fluid flow to quantify the stress and deformation fields in a steep hillside slope subjected to rainfall infiltration. This is followed by a limit‐equilibrium calculation based on the method of slices that evaluates the desired factor of safety. The field condition investigated is similar to the steep experimental catchment CB1 near Coos Bay, Oregon, which failed as a large debris flow from heavy rainfall. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stream temperature sensitivity to climate warming in California’s Sierra Nevada: impacts to coldwater habitat

Water temperature influences the distribution, abundance, and health of aquatic organisms in stream ecosystems, so understanding the impacts of climate warming on stream temperature will help guide management and restoration. This study assesses climate warming impacts on stream temperatures in California’s west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds, and explores stream temperature modeling at the mesoscale. We used natural flow hydrology to isolate climate induced changes from those of water operations and land use changes. A 21 year time series of weekly streamflow estimates from WEAP21, a spatially explicit rainfall-runoff model were passed to RTEMP, an equilibrium temperature model, to estimate stream temperatures. Air temperature was uniformly increased by 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C as a sensitivity analysis to bracket the range of likely outcomes for stream temperatures. Other meteorological conditions, including precipitation, were unchanged from historical values. Raising air temperature affects precipitation partitioning into snowpack, runoff, and snowmelt in WEAP21, which change runoff volume and timing as well as stream temperatures. Overall, stream temperatures increased by an average of 1.6°C for each 2°C rise in air temperature, and increased most during spring and at middle elevations. Viable coldwater habitat shifted to higher elevations and will likely be reduced in California. Thermal heterogeneity existed within and between basins, with the high elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada and the Feather River watershed most resilient to climate warming. The regional equilibrium temperature modeling approach used here is well suited for climate change analysis because it incorporates mechanistic heat exchange, is not overly data or computationally intensive, and can highlight which watersheds are less vulnerable to climate warming. Understanding potential changes to stream temperatures from climate warming will affect how fish and wildlife are managed, and should be incorporated into modeling studies, restoration assessments, and licensing operations of hydropower facilities to best estimate future conditions and achieve desired outcomes.     

Magnetic properties of the LL5 ordinary chondrite Chelyabinsk (fall of February 15, 2013)

Here we characterize the magnetic properties of the Chelyabinsk chondrite (LL5, S4, W0) and constrain the composition, concentration, grain size distribution, and mineral fabric of the meteorite's magnetic mineral assemblage. Data were collected from 10 to 1073 K and include measurements of low‐field magnetic susceptibility (χ₀), the anisotropy of χ₀, hysteresis loops, first‐order reversal curves, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X‐ray microtomography. The REM and REM′ paleointensity protocols suggest that the only magnetizations recorded by the chondrite are components of the Earth's magnetic field acquired during entry into our planet's atmosphere. The Chelyabinsk chondrite consists of light and dark lithologies. Fragments of the light lithology show logχ₀ = 4.57 ± 0.09 (s.d.) (n = 135), while the dark lithology shows 4.65 ± 0.09 (n = 39) (where χ₀ is in 10^?9 m³ kg^?1). Thus, Chelyabinsk is three times more magnetic than the average LL5 fall, but is similar to a subgroup of metal‐rich LL5 chondrites (Paragould, Aldsworth, Bawku, Richmond) and L/LL5 chondrites (Glanerbrug, Knyahinya). The meteorite's room‐temperature magnetization is dominated by multidomain FeNi alloys taenite and kamacite (no tetrataenite is present). However, below approximately 75 K remanence is dominated by chromite. The metal contents of the light and dark lithologies are 3.7 and 4.1 wt%, respectively, and are based on values of saturation magnetization.     

A predator–prey model for moon-triggered clumping in Saturn’s rings

UVIS occultation data show clumping in Saturn’s F ring and at the B ring outer edge, indicating aggregation and disaggregation at these locations that are perturbed by Prometheus and by Mimas. The inferred timescales range from hours to months. Occultation profiles of the edge show wide variability, indicating perturbations by local mass aggregations. Structure near the B ring edge is seen in power spectral analysis at scales 200–2000 m. Similar structure is also seen at the strongest density waves, with significance increasing with resonance strength. For the B ring outer edge, the strongest structure is seen at longitudes 90° and 270° relative to Mimas. This indicates a direct relation between the moon and the ring clumping. We propose that the collective behavior of the ring particles resembles a predator–prey system: the mean aggregate size is the prey, which feeds the velocity dispersion; conversely, increasing dispersion breaks up the aggregates. Moons may trigger clumping by streamline crowding, which reduces the relative velocity, leading to more aggregation and more clumping. Disaggregation may follow from disruptive collisions or tidal shedding as the clumps stir the relative velocity. For realistic values of the parameters this yields a limit cycle behavior, as for the ecology of foxes and hares or the “boom-bust” economic cycle. Solving for the long-term behavior of this forced system gives a periodic response at the perturbing frequency, with a phase lag roughly consistent with the UVIS occultation measurements. We conclude that the agitation by the moons in the F ring and at the B ring outer edge drives aggregation and disaggregation in the forcing frame. This agitation of the ring material may also allow fortuitous formation of solid objects from the temporary clumps, via stochastic processes like compaction, adhesion, sintering or reorganization that drives the denser parts of the aggregate to the center or ejects the lighter elements. Any of these more persistent objects would then orbit at the Kepler rate. We would also expect the formation of clumps and some more permanent objects at the other perturbed regions in the rings… including satellite resonances, shepherded ring edges, and near embedded objects like Pan and Daphnis (where the aggregation/disaggregation cycles are forced similar to Prometheus forcing of the F ring).     

Quantifying sedimentation patterns of small landslide-dammed lakes in the central Oregon Coast Range

Understanding sedimentation patterns in small coastal watersheds due to landscape perturbations is critical for connecting hillslope and fluvial processes, in addition to managing aquatic habitats for anadromous fish and other aquatic species in the Oregon Coast Range (OCR). Changes in sedimentation patterns spanning the last 250 years are preserved in two landslide-dammed lakes in small watersheds (< 10 km²) underlain by the Tyee Formation in the central OCR. Dendrochronology of drowned Douglas-fir stumps in both lakes provided precise timing of the damming and formation of the lakes, with Klickitat Lake forming in winter ad 1751/52 and Wasson Lake in winter ad 1819/20. Perturbations from wildfires, logging and road development, and previously underappreciated snow events affect sedimentation rates in the lakes to different degrees, and are identified in the sediment record using cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs), high-resolution charcoal stratigraphy, local fire records, and aerial photography. Each lake has variable sedimentation accumulation rates (0.05–4.4 cm yr⁻¹) and mass accumulation rates (0.02–1.42 g cm⁻² yr⁻¹). Sedimentation rates remained low from the landslide-damming events until the mid-19th century, when they increased following stand-replacing wildfires. Aside from a sediment remobilization triggered by human modification of the landslide dam at Klickitat Lake around 1960, the largest peaks in mass accumulation rates in the mid-20th century at both lakes in the early 1950s precede major road construction and logging activity in the watersheds. Subsequent sedimentation rates are lower, but variable, and possible effects of logging and road development might be exacerbated by abnormal precipitation and heavy snow events. A comparison of previous studies of landslide-dammed lakes in larger watershed of the OCR are consistent with our findings of increased sedimentation in the mid-20th century, as well as higher sedimentation rates in the debris-flow dominated southern Tyee Formation than in the lower-relief northern Tyee Formation.     

Ejecta from impacts at 0.2-2.3 m/s in low gravity

Collisions between planetary ring particles and in some protoplanetary disk environments occur at speeds below 10 m/s. The particles involved in these low-velocity collisions have negligible gravity and may be made of or coated with smaller dust grains and aggregates. We undertook microgravity impact experiments to better understand the dissipation of energy and production of ejecta in these collisions. Here we report the results of impact experiments of solid projectiles into beds of granular material at impact velocities from 0.2 to 2.3 m/s performed under near-weightless conditions on the NASA KC-135 Weightless Wonder V. Impactors of various densities and radii of 1 and 2 cm were launched into targets of quartz sand, JSC-1 lunar regolith simulant, and JSC-Mars-1 martian regolith simulant. Most impacts were at normal or near-normal incidence angles, though some impacts were at oblique angles. Oblique impacts led to much higher ejection velocities and ejecta masses than normal impacts. For normal incidence impacts, characteristic ejecta velocities increase with impactor kinetic energy, KE, as approximately KE^0.5. Ejecta masses could not be measured accurately due to the nature of the experiment, but qualitatively also increased with impactor kinetic energy. Some experiments were near the threshold velocity of 0.2 m/s identified in previous microgravity impact experiments as the minimum velocity needed to produce ejecta [Colwell, J.E., 2003. Icarus 164, 188-196], and the experimental scatter is large at these low speeds in the airplane experiment. A more precise exploration of the transition from low-ejecta-mass impacts to high-ejecta-mass impacts requires a longer and smoother period of reduced gravity. Coefficient of restitution measurements are not possible due to the varying acceleration of the airplane throughout the experiment.     

Collaborative Governance and Conflict Management: Lessons Learned and Good Practices from a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

Abstract

Given the linkages between natural resources and social conflicts, evidence increasingly shows that successful natural resource management requires conflict mitigation and prevention. However, there may be a gap in practice between knowing what processes and tools need to be used to manage conservation conflicts and how to actually implement them. We present learning from a practice-based case study of conflict management in the Amarakaeri Communal Reserve in the Peruvian Amazon that aimed to develop natural resource governance institutions and build stakeholder capacity, including of indigenous groups, to navigate existing conflict resolution mechanisms. Through applying good practices in conservation conflict management and collaborative governance, we generated important lessons on the practical considerations involved in collaborative conservation. These lessons, while specific to our case, could be applied to a variety of protected areas facing complex social-ecological systems dynamics and wicked problems.     

Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits.     

Short term variability of Particle fluxes and its relation to variability in sea surface temperature and chlorophylla field detected by Ocean Color and Temperature Scanner (OCTS) off Sanriku, northwestern North Pacific in the spring of 1997

A sediment trap experiment was carried out in conjunction with an over flight of Ocean Color Temperature Scanner (OCTS) on board Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) at 40°N, 143°E off Sanriku in April to May 1997. Short term variability of particle fluxes was examined at depths of 450 m and 600 m from April 6 to May 1 with a sampling interval of two days, and at 450 m with one day interval from 2nd to 10th May. Daily averaged mass flux at 450 m and 600 m was 815 mg m⁻²d⁻¹ and 862 mg m⁻²d⁻¹, respectively. A sharp increase in mass flux was observed during the period from April 26 to April 29 with the highest mass flux of 8 g m⁻²d⁻¹. About 85% of the total mass flux for the entire duration (26 days) was collected within these 4 days. Trapped material during the peak flux period was mainly composed of diatoms dominated byThalassiosira spp. and resting spores ofChaetoceros spp. This suggested that the peak flux was the result of (a) diatom bloom(s) in the euphotic column. Current meter records at 420 m showed that on April 26 and 27, the period when the peak flux was observed, the southwestward current had diminished in strength and changed its direction northwestward. Low current speeds appeared to have enhanced trap efficiency to help form the peak flux. A time series of OCTS Intensive-LAC (Local Area Coverage: Region B) images from mid-March to early May was examined todetect phytoplankton bloom(s). In the March 26th Chl image, high concentration region was restricted to the southwest off Cape Erimo, but spread around the warm core ring (WCR) 93A by April 10. East of the WCR93A, high Chl concentration remained steady until May, but to the west of the WCR93A, Chl decreased rapidly before the 19th of April. From this observation we suspect that the peak flux observed at the end of April originated from a bloom, which ceased on the 17th or 18th of April, in the region north of 40°N and west of 143°E. Taking the current meter records into account, the source region for the trapped material is most likely around southwest of the Cape Erimo.