The impact of land use change on water resources in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study of Lake Malawi

A modelling study to investigate the effects of land use change from natural forest to agricultural land on large-scale catchment runoff in southern Africa is described. The evaporative component of the model considers the catchment to be composed of one of three surface types—forest, agricultural land or water surface. Values of the model parameters for the forest and agricultural lands were obtained from experimental studies carried out in the dry zone of India. Estimates of average monthly potential evaporation, together with measurements of monthly rainfall, were used in the model to predict the monthly levels of Lake Malawi. These were compared with observed levels. From 1896 to 1967 the major fluctuations in lake level, both seasonally and annually, are well described by this model (excepting the period from 1935 to 1945, immediately following the time when there was no outflow from the lake) using a value of 64% for the forest coverage of the catchment. The overall agreement between prediction and observation indicates that variations in rainfall alone, without changes in either evaporative demand or in the hydraulic regime of the lake, are sufficient to explain lake level changes. For the more recent period (1954–1994), model predictions of lake level which take into account a decrease in forest cover of 13% over the period 1967–1990 (consistent with the actual decrease in forest cover for this period) agree well with observations both annually and seasonally. Without this decrease in forest cover, the model predicted that the lake level would have been about 1 m lower than that observed during the southern African drought of 1992. The model, in conjunction with real-time rainfall data obtained from land-based gauges, radar or satellite observations, can be used for real-time water resource management applications such as the operation of barrages regulating the flow from Lake Malawi or for the issuing of flood or drought warnings.     

The effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment on turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum) in Sarasota Bay,Florida

Four meadows of turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum Banks ex Konig) in Sarasota Bay, Florida were sampled on a bimonthly basis from June 1992 to July 1993 to determine spatial and temporal variation in short shoot density, biomass, productivity, and epiphyte loads. Concurrent with the seagrass sampling, quarterly water-quality monitoring was undertaken at ≥3 sites in the vicinity of each studied seagrass meadow. Three months after termination of the seagrass sampling effort, a biweekly water-quality monitoring program was instituted at two of the seagrass sampling sites. In addition, a nitrogen loading model was calibrated for the various watersheds influencing the seagrass meadows. Substantial spatial and temporal differences in turtle grass parameters but smaller spatial variation in water quality parameters are indicated by data from both the concurrent quarterly monitoring program and the biweekly monitoring program instituted after termination of the seagrass study. Turtle grass biomass and productivity were negatively correlated with watershed nitrogen loads, while water quality parameters did not clearly reflect differences in watershed nutrient inputs. We suggest that traditional water-quality monitoring programs can fail to detect the onset or continuance of nutrient-induced declines in seagrass health. Consequently, seagrass meadows should be monitored directly as a part of any effort to determine status and/or trends in the health of estuarine environments. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00029

     

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, control and doubled CO₂ life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.     

Chrysophyte cysts as paleolimnological indicators of environmental change due to cottage development and acidic deposition in the Muskoka-Haliburton region, Ontario, Canada

Chrysophyte cysts preserved in recent and pre-industrial lake sediment samples from 54 Muskoka-Haliburton (Ontario) lakes were used in a paleolimnological study to determine the impact of acidic precipitation and cottage development on water quality. A total of 246 cyst morphotypes were identified. Ecological preferences of cyst morphotypes were determined using multivariate statistical analysis, cluster analysis, and species-environment correlations. Recent cyst assemblages were related to water chemistry and lake morphometric variables using Redundancy Analysis (RDA). The distribution of morphotypes was related to a gradient of acid neutralising capacity (ANC), expressed through the association of variables related to buffering (i.e. longitude, watershed area, and ionic concentration) with the first axis (₁ = 0.29). Cyst assemblages were also defined, to a lesser extent (₂ = 0.06), by a trophic status gradient, created through the combination of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), volume-weighted cottage density, and lake depth variables. The identification of lakewater pH and trophic status as important determinants of cyst assemblage structure allowed for the reconstruction of acidification and eutrophication related water chemistry changes using fossil cyst assemblages. The reconstruction of pre-industrial (pre-1850) water quality conditions with fossil cyst assemblages indicated that pH significantly decreased in 24.1% of the study lakes and increased in 16.7% of the lakes. Increases in pH in more alkaline drainage basins are attributed to alkalinity generation processes induced by acidic precipitation as has been shown in other studies. Total phosphorus (TP) concentrations significantly declined in 12.9% of the lakes and increased in 16.6% of lakes. Increases in [TP] were linked to cottage development. Decreases in trophic status may be due to landuse changes, the result of the acidification occurring in the area, or warmer and drier climates. A comparison of chrysophyte cyst and diatom water quality inferences show similar trends in pH changes. There is a good agreement between diatom and chrysophyte bioindicators with respect to [TP] changes in oligotrophic lakes (< 10 g/L); however, diatom inferences suggest that lakes with current [TP] values greater than 10 g/L have decreased in trophic status over time, while chrysophyte reconstructions suggest that these same lakes have become more productive systems.     

Some exact solutions of unsteady boundary layer equations-II

Summary Some exact solutions are presented for the unsteady boundary layer flows of a homogeneous, viscous, incompressible fluid bounded by (i) an infinite rigid oscillating flat plate or (ii) two parallel rigid oscillating flat plates. An explicit representation of the velocity fields for both the configurations has been given. The structures of the associated periodic boundary layers are determined with physical interpretations. Several results of interest have been recovered as special cases of this general theory. The Heaviside operational calculus along with the theory of residues of analytic functions is adopted in finding the solutions.     

Hydrological impact of Eucalyptus plantation in India

A brief review is given of the results of hydrological studies carried out in southern India on the effects of plantations of Eucalyptus and other fast growing exotic tree species on water resources, erosion and soil nutrients at sites of differing rainfall and soil depth in Karnataka. New results on the impacts of the plantations on raindrop-induced erosion and preliminary results from studies that are aimed at improving the water use efficiency of the plantations are also presented.

The erosion studies indicate that soil detachment resulting from net rainfall beneath Eucalyptus camaldulensis will be greater than beneath Pinus caribaea but less than that beneath the indigenous species, Tectona grandis.

The water use efficiency studies, which make use of a controlled environment facility, have confirmed that in the dry zone of southern India water availability is the principal limiting factor on growth although, when water is available, nutrient limitations become important. Removal of both water and nutrient stress results typically in a fivefold increase in volume growth for the first year of growth.     

Two-dimensional dynamic analysis of concrete gravity and embankment dams including hydrodynamic effects

An analysis procedure in the frequency domain is developed for determining the earthquake response of two-dimensional concrete gravity and embankment dams including hydrodynamic effects; responses of the elastic dams and compressible water are assumed linear. The dam and fluid domain are treated as substructures and modelled with finite elements. The only geometric restriction is that an infinite fluid domain must maintain a constant depth beyond some point in the upstream direction. For such an infinite uniform region, a finite element discretization over the depth is combined with a continuum representation in the upstream direction. The fluid domain model approximately accounts for interaction between the fluid and underlying foundation medium through a damping boundary condition applied along the reservoir bottom, while the dam foundation is assumed rigid. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the fluid domain model and to illustrate dam responses obtained from the analysis procedure.     

Gypsum as a precursor to pyrrhotite in metamorphic rocks

During low-grade regional metamorphism, pyrrhotite can form from gypsum by the reaction: CaSO₄·2H₂O+Fe _sol. ²⁺ +2C_org.FeS+Ca _sol. ²⁺ +2H₂O+2CO₂. This reaction takes place in the anchizone, below 350°C and might be initiated by the thermal dehydration of gypsum (200°C) and aided by the generation of gaseous hydrocarbons. Evidence for the reaction is the occurrence in dolomitic layers in the Ballachulish Slate, East Larroch quarry, Argyll of lath and swallow-tail shaped quartz+dolomite+pyrrhotite pseudomorphs after gypsum. Quartz+pyrrhotite bodies in slate represent replaced and deformed (mainly flattened) crystals, concretions and possible veinlets of gypsum. Pyrite porphyroblast growth, after the peak of metamorphism and under relatively high fS₂ conditions, failed to destroy some early pyrrhotite because it is encapsulated in quartz. Pyrite-silicate reactions and hydrothermal exhalations have been suggested previously to account for pyrrhotite-enriched horizons in regionally metamorphosed rocks. Replacement of gypsum by pyrrhotite is an additional explanation for pyrrhotite-enriched horizons, especially in dolomitic and graphitic lithologies.