Incremental CH4 and N2O mitigation benefits consistent with the US Government's SC-CO2 estimates

Benefit–cost analysis can serve as an informative input into the policy-making process, but only to the degree it characterizes the major impacts of the regulation under consideration. Recently, the US, amongst other nations, has begun to use estimates of the social cost of CO₂ (SC-CO₂) to develop analyses that more fully capture the climate change impacts of GHG abatement. The SC-CO₂ represents the aggregate willingness to pay to avoid the damages associated with an additional tonne of CO₂ emissions. In comparison, the social costs of non-CO₂ GHGs have received little attention from researchers and policy analysts, despite their non-negligible climate impact. This article addresses this issue by developing a set of social cost estimates for two highly prevalent non-CO₂ GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide. By extending existing integrated assessment models, it is possible to develop a set of social cost estimates for these gases that are consistent with the SC-CO₂ estimates currently in use by the US federal government.Policy relevanceWithin the benefit–cost analyses that inform the design of major regulations, all Federal agencies within the US Government (USG) use a set of agreed upon SC-CO₂ estimates to value the impact of CO₂ emissions changes. However, the value of changes in non-CO₂ GHG emissions has not been included in USG policy analysis to date. This article addresses that omission by developing a set of social cost estimates for two highly prevalent non-CO₂ GHGs, methane and nitrous oxide. These new estimates are designed to be compatible with the USG SC-CO₂ estimates currently in use and may therefore be directly applied to value emissions changes for these non-CO₂ gases within the benefit–cost analyses used to evaluate future policies.     

Analysis of fault leakage from Leroy underground natural gas storage facility, Wyoming, USA

Leroy natural-gas storage site is an anticlinal, fault-bounded, aquifer-storage system located in Wyoming, USA. Based on its abundant data, uncontrolled leakage history and subsequent control by the facility operators, a modeling framework was developed for studying reservoir behavior, examining pressure and gas-inventory histories, as well as gas and brine leakage, and evaluating the sensitivity of that behavior to uncertainty about reservoir properties. A three-dimensional model capturing the bounding fault, layered geologic stratigraphy, and surface topography was calibrated by history data of reservoir pressure and gas inventory. The calibrated model predicted gas arrival at the ground surface that was consistent with the timing of observed gas bubbling into a creek. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the parameters influencing fault leakage, and a geomechanical stability analysis was conducted to investigate the likelihood of fault reactivation. In general, it is shown that a discrete leakage pathway is required to explain the observed gas leakage and its subsequent operational control by reducing reservoir pressures. Specifically, the results indicate that fault leakage is a plausible explanation for the observed gas leakage. The results are relevant to other natural-gas storage sites, as well as other subsurface storage applications of buoyant fluids, such as CO₂.     

A compositional interpretation of trans-neptunian objects taxonomies

Trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) are a population of small objects orbiting the Sun beyond Neptune. Because of their distance they are difficult to observe spectroscopically, but a large body of photometric observations is available and growing. TNOs are important tracers of the evolution of the outer Solar System and key when testing current dynamical evolution theories. Previous statistical studies of the colors of TNOs have yielded useful but limited results regarding the chemical history and evolution of these bodies.With the aim at obtaining compositional information on the small and distant TNOs we introduce a statistical cluster analysis (labelled albedo) based on colors and published albedos of TNOs. We compare it to a previous taxonomy, to illustrate the significance of including the albedo information when determining the composition of the objects. When the albedo contribution is removed from the data, the new taxonomy (now labelled classical) is in general agreement with the published ones, supporting the applicability of our approach. Making use of modeled reflectance spectra of a variety of plausible mixtures found on the surface of TNOs, we extract the average surface composition of each taxon, for both the classical and the albedo taxonomy, in a statistically consistent fashion.Differently from previous and classical, the albedo taxonomy establishes a direct link between the colors and albedos of the objects and their surface composition, allowing, for the first time, a quick assessment of the chemical history of TNOs. In fact, under closer examination the taxa show trends in composition that might be evolutionary in nature. If a simple ‘snow lines’ model is adopted, we can infer that albedo taxa relate the current objects’ locations to their original ones, prior to the migration of the outer planets. We regard the large population that characterizes the darkest classes spread at a variety of semi-major axis distances as one of the intriguing results of this work.     

Radar and optical observations and physical modeling of triple near-Earth Asteroid (136617) 1994 CC

We report radar, photometric, and spectroscopic observations of near-Earth Asteroid (136617) 1994 CC. The radar measurements were obtained at Goldstone (8560 MHz, 3.5 cm) and Arecibo (2380 MHz, 12.6 cm) on 9 days following the asteroid’s approach within 0.0168 AU on June 10, 2009. 1994 CC was also observed with the Panchromatic Robotic Optical Monitoring and Polarimetry Telescopes (PROMPT) on May 21 and June 1-3. Visible-wavelength spectroscopy was obtained with the 5-m Hale telescope at Palomar on August 25. Delay-Doppler radar images reveal that 1994 CC is a triple system; along with (153591) 2001 SN263, this is only the second confirmed triple in the near-Earth population. Photometry obtained with PROMPT yields a rotation period for the primary P = 2.38860 ± 0.00009 h and a lightcurve amplitude of ∼0.1 mag suggesting a shape with low elongation. Hale telescope spectroscopy indicates that 1994 CC is an Sq-class object. Delay-Doppler radar images and shape modeling reveal that the primary has an effective diameter of 0.62 ± 0.06 km, low pole-on elongation, few obvious surface features, and a prominent equatorial ridge and sloped hemispheres that closely resemble those seen on the primary of binary near-Earth Asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4. Detailed orbit fitting reported separately by Fang et al. (Fang, J., Margot, J.-L., Brozovic, M., Nolan, M.C., Benner, L.A.M., Taylor, P.A. [2011]. Astron. J. 141, 154-168) gives a mass of the primary of 2.6 × 10¹¹ kg that, coupled with the effective diameter, yields a bulk density of 2.1 ± 0.6 g cm⁻³. The images constrain the diameters of the inner and outer satellites to be 113 ± 30 m and 80 ± 30 m, respectively. The inner satellite has a semimajor axis of ∼1.7 km (∼5.5 primary radii), an orbital period of ∼30 h, and its Doppler dispersion suggests relatively slow rotation, 26 ± 12 h, consistent with spin-orbit lock. The outer satellite has an orbital period of ∼9 days and a rotation period of 14 ± 7 h, establishing that the rotation is not spin-orbit locked. Among all binary and triple systems observed by radar, at least 25% (7/28) have a satellite that rotates more rapidly than its orbital period. This suggests that asynchronous configurations with P_rotation < P_orbital are relatively common among multiple systems in the near-Earth population. 1994 CC’s outer satellite has an observed maximum separation from the primary of ∼5.7 km (∼18.4 primary radii) that is the largest separation relative to primary radius seen to date among all 36 known binary and triple NEA systems. 1994 CC, (153591) 2001 SN263, and 1998 ST27 are the only triple and binary systems known with satellite separations >10 primary radii, suggesting either a detection bias, or that such widely-separated satellites are relatively uncommon in NEA multiple systems.     

Expansion of the northern hemisphere subtropical high pressure belt: trends and linkages to precipitation and drought

A critical issue in research concerning long-term climate change is the relationship between circulation features and global temperature variations. We establish that the annual areal size of the northern hemisphere subtropical high pressure belt (SHPB), as defined by seven 500-hPa height isohypses, shares over 70% of the variability with global annual near-surface air temperature since 1948. The area enclosed by the 5850-m isohypse of the 500-hPa surface in the northern hemisphere has more than doubled since the 1950s, with greatest increases over northern Africa, the Middle East and India. A long-term historical run of a coupled global climate model shows rapidly increasing SHPB annual sizes, since the mid-1970s. Since the SHPB’s descending air produces increased aridity, SHPB expansion may transition humid regions to more arid lands. To examine this aspect, first, variations in recorded precipitation using a gridded database for the region experiencing expansion of the SHPB show a decrease in precipitation (though significant only at the 88% confidence level) over the last 60?years. Second, variations in a 0.5° spatial resolution monthly drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, are highly correlated (+0.78) with annual variations in the area enclosed by the 500-hPa height isohypses. These results support those of previous investigations that suggest further northward expansion of the northern hemisphere subtropical dry zones with continued global climate change.     

A less‐is‐more approach to geovisualization – enhancing knowledge construction across multidisciplinary teams

The ‘less‐is‐more’ concept in interface design for computer applications has recently gained ground. In this article, the concept is adopted for a user‐centered design of geovisualization application. The premise is that using simple and clear design can lead to successful applications with improved ease of use. Over the last three decades, the development of GIS and geovisualization has seen a marked increase in the levels of interaction between the user, the system and the information. However, these enthusiastic advances in technology have not resulted in a significant increase in the number of users.

This article suggests that types of user interaction should not simply emphasize traditional GIS functions such as zooming and panning but move towards interaction based on facilitating the knowledge construction process. Considerations are made for the complexity of the system, the task at hand and the skills and limitations of the users. These elements are particularly important when maps act as the mediators in collaboration with users across disciplinary backgrounds. In such cases, the emphasis on simplicity and usability becomes as important as functionality. In these situations a geovisualization application designed for specific uses can maximize effective development of geographic knowledge.

In this article, a minimalistic design approach to geovisualization is adopted by creating a geographic profiling tool which shifts the emphasis from technological advances or interaction with the map to the interaction elements key to building the spatial knowledge of GIS experts and non‐experts alike. To evaluate this notion of ‘less‐is‐more geovisualization’ the profiling tool is evaluated according to usability matrices: efficiency, effectiveness and learnability. How well the Suburban Profiler contributes to these elements is assessed by conducting a video analysis of the types and forms of user interaction available. The video analysis demonstrates the usefulness and usability of the Suburban Profiler, providing proof of concept for ‘less‐is‐more geovisualization’.     

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Reported Crimes in Louisiana: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

This research assesses the impact that one natural disaster—Hurricane Katrina—and subsequent population movements have had on crime in the state of Louisiana. Using Index Crimes from the Louisiana Commission on Law Enforcement and population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, time series of violent and nonviolent crime rates were first analyzed using autoregressive, integrated, and moving average (ARIMA) models. Cumulative percentile maps were created next to analyze spatial trends of crime hot and cold spots in the study area. Overall, results from this research support theories that suggest that crime rates remain stable or actually decline in regions receiving evacuees from areas hardest hit by the hurricane. In the case of Orleans Parish, results are inconclusive due to unreliable crime rates for the period following Hurricane Katrina until the beginning of 2006. It is suggested that crime rates in Orleans Parish fell drastically after the storm. However, some crime types, including robbery, burglary, and larceny, returned to pre-Katrina levels and murder and aggravated assault even exceeded prestorm averages by the end of December 2007.     

Thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of carbon dioxide injection for enhanced gas-recovery (CO2-EGR): a benchmarking study for code comparison

The objective of this paper was to investigate the THM-coupled responses of the storage formation and caprock, induced by gas production, CO₂-EGR (enhanced gas recovery), and CO₂-storage. A generic 3D planer model (20,000?×?3,000?×?100?m, consisting of 1,200?m overburden, 100?m caprock, 200?m gas reservoir, and 1,500?m base rock) is adopted for the simulation process using the integrated code TOUGH2/EOS7C-FLAC3D and the multi-purpose simulator OpenGeoSys. Both simulators agree that the CO₂-EGR phase under a balanced injection rate (31,500?tons/year) will cause almost no change in the reservoir pressure. The gas recovery rate increases 1.4?% in the 5-year CO₂-EGR phase, and a better EGR effect could be achieved by increasing the distance between injection and production wells (e.g., 5.83?% for 5?km distance, instead of 1.2?km in this study). Under the considered conditions there is no evidence of plastic deformation and both reservoir and caprock behave elastically at all operation stages. The stress path could be predicted analytically and the results show that the isotropic and extensional stress regime will switch to the compressional stress regime, when the pore pressure rises to a specific level. Both simulators agree regarding modification of the reservoir stress state. With further CO₂-injection tension failure in reservoir could occur, but shear failure will never happen under these conditions. Using TOUGH-FLAC, a scenario case is also analyzed with the assumption that the reservoir is naturally fractured. The specific analysis shows that the maximal storage pressure is 13.6?MPa which is determined by the penetration criterion of the caprock.     

Numerical Modeling of Pore Pressure Influence on Fracture Evolution in Brittle Heterogeneous Rocks

Rock is a heterogeneous geological material. When rock is subjected to internal hydraulic pressure and external mechanical loading, the fluid flow properties will be altered by closing, opening, or other interaction of pre-existing weaknesses or by induced new fractures. Meanwhile, the pore pressure can influence the fracture behavior on both a local and global scale. A finite element model that can consider the coupled effects of seepage, damage and stress field in heterogeneous rock is described. First, two series of numerical tests in relatively homogeneous and heterogeneous rocks were performed to investigate the influence of pore pressure magnitude and gradient on initiation and propagation of tensile fractures. Second, to examine the initiation of hydraulic fractures and their subsequent propagation, a series of numerical simulations of the behavior of two injection holes inside a saturated rock mass are carried out. The rock is subjected to different initial in situ stress ratios and to an internal injection (pore) pressure at the two injection holes. Numerically, simulated results indicate that tensile fracture is strongly influenced by both pore pressure magnitude and pore pressure gradient. In addition, the heterogeneity of rock, the initial in situ stress ratio (K), the distance between two injection holes, and the difference of the pore pressure in the two injection holes all play important roles in the initiation and propagation of hydraulic fractures. At relatively close spacing and when the two principal stresses are of similar magnitude, the proximity of adjacent injection holes can cause fracturing to occur in a direction perpendicular to the maximum principal stress.     

Spitzer IRAC infrared colours of submillimetre-bright galaxies

High-redshift submillimetre-bright galaxies identified by blank field surveys at millimetre and submillimetre wavelengths appear in the region of the Infra Red Array Camera (IRAC) colour–colour diagrams previously identified as the domain of luminous active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Our analysis using a set of empirical and theoretical dusty starburst spectral energy distribution (SED) models shows that power-law continuum sources associated with hot dust heated by young (≲100 Myr old), extreme starbursts at z > 2 also occupy the same general area as AGNs in the IRAC colour–colour plots. A detailed comparison of the IRAC colours and SEDs demonstrates that the two populations are distinct from each other, with submillimetre-bright galaxies having a systematically flatter IRAC spectrum (≳1 mag bluer in the observed [4.5]–[8.0] colour). Only about 20 per cent of the objects overlap in the colour–colour plots, and this low fraction suggests that submillimetre galaxies powered by a dust-obscured AGN are not common. The red infrared colours of the submillimetre galaxies are distinct from those of the ubiquitous foreground IRAC sources, and we propose a set of infrared colour selection criteria for identifying SMG counterparts that can be used even in the absence of radio or Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) 24 μm data.