A diagnostic model using ashfall data to determine eruption characteristic and atmospheric conditions during a major volcanic event

A model is developed for estimating location of a volcano relative to sample points in an associated ashfall, cloud height during eruption, and mean wind velocity during ash deposition. The ash deposit must cover a large area and have an elongate axis. The model appears to be applicable both to recent and to unobserved ashfalls in the past, provided adequate and representative ash samples are available. The opportunity to test the diagnostic model on volcanic ashfalls is limited by sparsity of the necessary input data. From more than 20 ashfalls described in the literature, the 1947 Hekla (Iceland) eruption is the only one which includes suitable particle size analyses taken from samples related to a well-defined axis. The application of the model to the Hekla ashfall is discussed.     

Effect of land–ocean contrast on the structure of anomaly tropical circulation

While the important role of land–ocean contrast (LOC) in the mean atmospheric circulation is well-known, an intriguing question remains as to whether LOC can also significantly influence the anomaly circulation. This question is particularly important in the tropics, where a large part of the variabilities is known to be due to convective internal dynamics, which in turn can be significantly affected by LOC. In the present work, we investigate this question using a model of convectively driven anomaly circulation in the tropics. Emphasizing the lower tropospheric flow, we adopt a model describing the horizontal dynamics of the first baroclinic mode on an equatorial β-plane, in the presence of moist feedbacks. We introduce LOC in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. Land surface dryness is taken into account in the moisture budget through the control of evaporative flux. A constant non-latent heating term is used over land in order to represent radiative and sensible heating effects. First, a control run is performed, numerically, without any LOC using random initial perturbations. The gravest mode that emerges from the control run, which is a wave-2 feature with a period around 20 days, is then used as the initial field for the model runs with LOC. The results show that LOC can significantly influence even the tropical variabilities. A latitudinal LOC, with a land mass in the northern hemisphere (north of 10°N), tends to shift the region of maximum precipitation slightly north of the equator with accompanying steeper gradients near the land–ocean boundary. The implications of this result for our understanding of Asian summer monsoon conditions are discussed. When LOC is only in the longitudinal direction, the dominant wave structure that emerges from the model run has wavenumber one and a period of about 35 days, very similar to the observed 30–60 day oscillation. In our final experiment, which is nearer to the realistic land–ocean configuration in the tropics, it is found that both latitudinal and longitudinal effects of LOC are important aspects of the tropical anomaly circulation. It is suggested that some of the patterns in the precipitation distribution, observed in the tropics and simulated using general circulation models are results of convectively induced internal dynamics, modulated by LOC.     

Stable isotopes in the ostracod shell: a preliminary study

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of Recent ostracods from six localities are presented. The δO¹⁸ data are consistent with precipitation of the shells in isotopic equilibrium with seawater. although additional data are necessary to confirm equilibrium precipitation. No strong correlation between carbon isotope ratios and temperature or salinity were observed for ostracods.     

Residual currents in juan de Fuca strait

Abstract

We examine the residual (non‐tidal) flow in Juan de Fuca Strait on the west coast of Canada using current and bottom pressure data collected on cross‐channel sections in the summers of 1975 and 1984. A positive estuarine circulation was evident in both sections but was better defined at the mid‐strait section than at the outer section near the mouth of the strait. Magnitudes of the volume transports in both the upper and lower layers of the channel ranged from ～ 0.25 X 10 m s at the mid‐strait section to ～ 0.15 X 10 m s～ at the outer section. The method of geostrophic levelling (Garrett and Pétrie, 1981; Pétrie et al, 1988) is used to determine the relationship between the daily averaged long‐strait velocity component and the cross‐strait pressure difference. A statistically significant relationship, consistent with a cross‐strait geostrophic balance, is obtained between the time series of shallow currents and shallow bottom pressures at the mid‐strait section. The deep currents and cross‐strait pressure differences were correlated at both sections but, because of the placement of the pressure gauges and/or ageostrophic effects such as bottom friction, were not related through a simple geostrophic balance. Cross‐spectral analysis and the calculation of the current amplitude ratios (square root of the energy ratio between the deep and shallow currents) are used to examine the baroclinicity of the flow as a function of frequency. Results suggest that flow variability in Juan de Fuca Strait is strongly baroclinic and has marked cross‐channel structure throughout the low‐frequency band.     

A mathematical model of permeability alteration around wells

This paper presents an analytical solution of the permeability alteration problem around the wellbore. This alteration may be a permeability reduction due to drilling fluid invasion or mudcake formation around the wellbore. On the other hand, the alteration may be a permeability increase resulting from stimulation by acidizing the formation matrix around the well. This permeability discontinuity in a reservoir forms a composite reservoir system. With the composite model, both the degree and the radial extent of permeability alteration can be adequately predicted. The conventional skin concept is inadequate and physically unrealistic in most of these cases. This paper describes the application of an automatic weighted constrained least-squares parameter estimation technique and the analytical model for pressure transient analysis. The parameters of the composite reservoir system are determined from a match of the pressure transient data. The behaviour of the pressure transient in such composite systems is presented using the analytical solution.     

Nonlinear bacterial load‐streamflow response on a marine beach

Bacterial concentration (Escherichia coli) is used as the key indicator for marine beach water quality in Hong Kong. For beaches receiving streamflow from unsewered catchments, water quality is mainly affected by local nonpoint source pollution and is highly dependent on the bacterial load contributed from the catchment. As most of these catchments are ungauged, the bacterial load is generally unknown. In this study, streamflow and the associated bacterial load contributed from an unsewered catchment to a marine beach, Big Wave Bay, are simulated using a modelling approach. The physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE‐SHE, and the empirical watershed water quality model (Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran) are used to simulate streamflow and daily‐averaged E. coli concentration/load, respectively. The total daily derived loads predicted by the model during calibration (June–July 2007) and validation (July–October 2008) periods agree well with empirical validation data, with a percentage difference of 3 and 2%, respectively. The simulation results show a nonlinear relationship between E. coli load and rainfall/streamflow and reveal a source limiting nature of nonpoint source pollution. The derived load is further used as an independent variable in a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to predict daily beach water quality. When compared with the MLR models based solely on hydrometeorological input variables (e.g. rainfall and salinity), the new model based on bacterial load predicts much more realistic E. coli concentrations during rainstorms. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cassini imaging of Saturn's rings: II. A wavelet technique for analysis of density waves and other radial structure in the rings

We describe a powerful signal processing method, the continuous wavelet transform, and use it to analyze radial structure in Cassini ISS images of Saturn's rings. Wavelet analysis locally separates signal components in frequency space, causing many structures to become evident that are difficult to observe with the naked eye. Density waves, generated at resonances with saturnian satellites orbiting outside (or within) the rings, are particularly amenable to such analysis. We identify a number of previously unobserved weak waves, and demonstrate the wavelet transform's ability to isolate multiple waves superimposed on top of one another. We also present two wave-like structures that we are unable to conclusively identify. In a multi-step semi-automated process, we recover four parameters from clearly observed weak spiral density waves: the local ring surface density, the local ring viscosity, the precise resonance location (useful for pointing images, and potentially for refining saturnian astrometry), and the wave amplitude (potentially providing new constraints upon the masses of the perturbing moons). Our derived surface densities have less scatter than previous measurements that were derived from stronger non-linear waves, and suggest a gentle linear increase in surface density from the inner to the mid-A Ring. We show that ring viscosity consistently increases from the Cassini Division outward to the Encke Gap. Meaningful upper limits on ring thickness can be placed on the Cassini Division (3.0 m at r∼118,800 km, 4.5 m at r∼120,700 km) and the inner A Ring (10-15 m for r<127,000 km).     

Thermal contraction crack polygons on Mars: A synthesis from HiRISE, Phoenix, and terrestrial analog studies

Thermal contraction crack polygons are complex landforms that have begun to be deciphered on Earth and Mars by the combined investigative efforts of geomorphology, environmental monitoring, physical models, paleoclimate reconstruction, and geochemistry. Thermal contraction crack polygons are excellent indicators of the current or past presence of ground ice, ranging in ice content from weakly cemented soils to debris-covered massive ice. Relative to larger topographic features, polygons may form rapidly, and reflect climate conditions at the time of formation—preserving climate information as relict landforms in the geological record. Polygon morphology and internal textural characteristics can be used to distinguish surfaces modified by the seasonal presence of a wet active layer or dry active layer, and to delimit subsurface ice conditions. Analysis of martian polygon morphology and distribution indicates that geologically-recent thermal contraction crack polygons on Mars form predominantly in an ice-rich latitude-dependent mantle, more likely composed of massive ice deposited by precipitation than by cyclical vapor diffusion into regolith. Regional and local heterogeneities in polygon morphology can be used to distinguish variations in ice content, deposition and modification history, and to assess microclimate variation on timescales of ka to Ma. Analyses of martian polygon morphology, guided by investigations of terrestrial analog thermal contraction crack polygons, strongly suggest the importance of excess ice in the formation and development of many martian thermal contraction crack polygons—implying the presence of an ice-rich substrate that was fractured during and subsequent to obliquity-driven depositional periods and continually modified by ongoing vapor equilibration processes.     

A nutrient loading budget for Biscayne Bay, Florida

The water quality in Biscayne Bay has been significantly affected by past and continuing coastal and watershed development. The nutrient concentrations in the Bay have been dramatically changed by the conversion of natural creeks and sheet flow freshwater inputs to rapid and episodic canal inputs from the large and rapidly expanding Miami metropolitan area. This study is an evaluation of nutrient loadings to Biscayne Bay for 1994-2002 from canal, atmospheric, and groundwater sources. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN, as nitrate, nitrite, and ammonium) and total phosphorus (TP) loadings by the canals were influenced by their geographic locations relative to discharge amount, watershed land use, stormwater runoff, and proximity to landfills. Annual budgets showed that canals contributed the bulk of N loading to the bay as 1687.2 metric ton N yr(-1) (88% total load). Direct atmospheric DIN load for Biscayne Bay was only 231.7 ton N yr(-1), based on surface area. Of the canal DIN load, nitrate+nitrite (NO(x)(-)) loading (1294.5 ton N yr(-1)) made up a much greater proportion than that of ammonium (NH(4)(+), 392.6 ton N yr(-1)). In the urbanized north and central Bay, canal DIN load was evenly split between NO(x)(-) and NH(4)(+). However, in the south, 95% of the DIN load was in the form of NO(x)(-), reflecting the more agricultural land use. Contrary to N, canals contributed the only 66% of P load to the bay (27.5 ton P yr(-1)). Atmospheric TP load was 14 ton Pyr(-1). In the north, canal P load dominated the budget while in the south, atmospheric load was almost double canal load. Groundwater inputs, estimated only for the south Bay, represented an important source of N and P in this zone. Groundwater input of N (141 ton N yr(-1)) was about equal to atmospheric load, while P load (5.9 ton P yr(-1)) was about equal to canal load.     

Evolving metasomatic agent in the Northern Andean subduction zone, deduced from magma composition of the long-lived Pichincha volcanic complex (Ecuador)

Geochemical studies of long-lived volcanic complexes are crucial for the understanding of the nature and composition of the subduction component of arc magmatism. The Pichincha Volcanic Complex (Northern Andean Volcanic Zone) consists of: (1) an old, highly eroded edifice, the Rucu Pichincha, whose lavas are mostly andesites, erupted from 1,100 to 150 ka; and (2) a younger, essentially dacitic, Guagua Pichincha composite edifice, with three main construction phases (Basal Guagua Pichincha, Toaza, and Cristal) which developed over the last 60 ka. This structural evolution was accompanied by a progressive increase of most incompatible trace element abundances and ratios, as well as by a sharp decrease of fluid-mobile to fluid-immobile element ratios. Geochemical data indicate that fractional crystallization of an amphibole-rich cumulate may account for the evolution from the Guagua Pichincha andesites to dacites. However, in order to explain the transition between the Rucu Pichincha andesites and Guagua Pichincha dacites, the mineralogical and geochemical data indicate the predominance of magma mixing processes between a mafic, trace-element depleted, mantle-derived end-member, and a siliceous, trace-element enriched, adakitic end-member. The systematic variation of trace element abundances and ratios in primitive samples leads us to propose that the Rucu Pichincha magmas came from a hydrous-fluid metasomatized mantle wedge, whereas Guagua Pichincha magmas are related to partial melting of a siliceous-melt metasomatized mantle. This temporal evolution implies a change from dehydration to partial melting of the slab, which may be associated with an increase in the geothermal gradient along the slab due to the presence of the subducted Carnegie Ridge at the subduction system. This work emphasizes the importance of studying arc-magma systems over long periods of time (of at least 1 million of years), in order to evaluate the potential variations of the slab contribution into the mantle source of the arc magmatism.