Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States

This study aims to evaluate soil climate quantitatively under present and projected climatic conditions across Central Europe (12.1°–18.9° E and 46.8°–51.1° N) and the U.S. Central Plains (90°–104° W and 37°–49° N), with a special focus on soil temperature, hydric regime, drought risk and potential productivity (assessed as a period suitable for crop growth). The analysis was completed for the baselines (1961–1990 for Europe and 1985–2005 for the U.S.) and time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on the outputs of three global circulation models using two levels of climate sensitivity. The results indicate that the soil climate (soil temperature and hydric soil regimes) will change dramatically in both regions, with significant consequences for soil genesis. However, the predicted changes of the pathways are very uncertain because of the range of future climate systems predicted by climate models. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the risk of unfavourable dry years will increase, resulting in greater risk of soil erosion and lower productivity. The projected increase in the variability of dry and wet events combined with the uncertainty (particularly in the U.S.) poses a challenge for selecting the most appropriate adaptation strategies and for setting adequate policies. The results also suggest that the soil resources are likely be under increased pressure from changes in climate.     

Photometry and models of eight near-Earth asteroids

We present new observations and models of the shapes and rotational states of the eight near-Earth Asteroids (1580) Betulia, (1627) Ivar, (1980) Tezcatlipoca, (2100) Ra-Shalom, (3199) Nefertiti, (3908) Nyx, (4957) Brucemurray, and (5587) 1990 SB. We also outline some of their solar phase curves, corrected to common reference geometry with the models. Some of the targets may feature sizable global nonconvexities, but the observable solar phase angles were not sufficiently high for confirming these. None is likely to have a very densely cratered surface. We discuss the role of the intermediate topographic scale range in photometry, and surmise that this scale range is less important than large or small scale lengths.     

Spherical integral formulas for upward/downward continuation of gravitational gradients onto gravitational gradients

New integral formulas for upward/downward continuation of gravitational gradients onto gravitational gradients are derived in this article. They provide more options for continuation of gravitational gradient combinations and extend available mathematical apparatus formulated for this purpose up to now. The starting point represents the analytical solution of the spherical gradiometric boundary value problem in the spatial domain. Applying corresponding differential operators on the analytical solution of the spherical gradiometric boundary value problem, a total of 18 integral formulas are provided. Spatial and spectral forms of isotropic kernels are given and their behaviour for parameters of a GOCE-like satellite is investigated. Correctness of the new integral formulas and the isotropic kernels is tested in a closed-loop simulation. The derived integral formulas and the isotropic kernels form a theoretical basis for validation purposes and geophysical applications of satellite gradiometric data as provided currently by the GOCE mission. They also extend the well-known Meissl scheme.     

中国极化区发展及功能评估研究

通过中国极化区发展及功能模式分析方法探讨,构建识别极化区功能的指标体系,采用极化区发展分析及功能评估方法,对中国已经批准建设的、具有极化区发展潜力的16个规划发展区进行了发展状况分析及功能定量评估,并提出发挥重要竞争力和影响力、承担重要引领带动功能、具有重要门户和枢纽地位、支撑落后地区快速发展等4类适合中国区域发展现状的极化区发展功能模式。     

Numerical analysis of synthetic granulate deposition in a physical model study

The current study focuses on the application of a three-dimensional numerical model for the prediction of morphological bed changes. The sediment deposition in a reservoir during a 10-year-flood was investigated and the results of the simulation were validated with data derived from a physical model study. Because of the small grain sizes in the prototype, synthetic granulate was used in the physical model. The numerical computation domain was a reproduction of the physical model, including the grain sizes and the density of the particles, in order to ensure comparability. The CFD code SSIIM, which solves the RANS-equations in three-dimensions, was used for the simulations. The sediment transport in SSIIM is divided into suspended sediment transport, computed by solving the convection-diffusion equation, and bed-load transport, calculated by an empirical formula. The results of the numerical simulation correspond well to the results of the physical model study. The simulated location and the pattern of the sediment deposition in the reservoir are an accurate representation of the observed distribution in the physical model.     

Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Groundwater Levels

Flood risk is generally perceived as being a consequence of surface water inundation. However, large damage is also caused by high groundwater levels. In surface hydrology, statistical frequency analysis is a standard tool to estimate discharge with a given return period or exceedance probability. First, a suitable probability distribution is fit to a series of annual maximum peaks. Second, this distribution is used to determine the discharge corresponding to the desired return period. Where only short series of recorded data are available, the estimates can often be improved by regional frequency analysis (RFA). Unfortunately, there is little information in the literature on analogous approaches for the estimation of extreme groundwater levels. In this contribution, the applicability of l ‐moments‐based RFA for the estimation of extreme groundwater levels is investigated. The main issues specific to groundwater levels are (1) appropriate transformation of the data, (2) criteria for identification of statistically homogeneous regions, (3) consideration of correlation between sites, and (4) choice of distribution function. This study is based on data from more than 1100 observation sites in four shallow Austrian Aquifers with a record length of 10 to 50 years. Results show that homogeneous regions for l ‐moments‐based RFA can be identified covering about one half of the total area of the aquifers. The confidence intervals for the 30‐ and 100‐year return levels can be significantly reduced by RFA. Out of the four investigated distribution functions, none is to be preferred generally.     

Large-Scale Errors in ERS Altimeter Data

A method is described for mapping time-uncorrelated large-scale errors in satellite altimeter sea surface heights. Standard deviations of differences between pairs of successive measurements at track crossovers are computed, and the functional dependence of these deviations on absolute time difference is used to estimate the errors of individual measurements. This is first applied to all of ERS-1,2 altimeter data in the Pacific Ocean, yielding average errors of 3.2 cm in the deep ocean (>1 km) and 4.7 cm in the shallow seas (<1 km). The procedure is repeated for variable latitude bands, each with a full range of possible time differences, yielding a meridional profile of computed errors, ranging from 2.6 cm near the Antarctic continent (67–60S) and South Subtropical regions (25–5S) to 3.5 cm in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (60–45S) and the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres. Finally, coarse-resolution maps of these errors are produced by subdividing the Pacific Ocean into latitude-longitude bins, each large enough to contain a sufficient number of samples for the functional fits. The larger errors are in Northwest and Subtropical Pacific, especially in South China Sea (4.3 to 4.5 cm) and off northern Australia (5.4 cm), while the smaller errors (2.5 to 3 cm) are in Northeast Pacific, central Tropical Pacific and near Antarctica in Southeast Pacific Ocean. These are lower bounds on altimeter errors, as they do not include contributions from time-correlated errors. We find that the computed error fields are not correlated with sea level standard deviations, thus disproving the notion that altimeter error variance can be scaled with the variance of sea surface height data.     

On computing ellipsoidal harmonics using Jekeli’s renormalization

Gravity data observed on or reduced to the ellipsoid are preferably represented using ellipsoidal harmonics instead of spherical harmonics. Ellipsoidal harmonics, however, are difficult to use in practice because the computation of the associated Legendre functions of the second kind that occur in the ellipsoidal harmonic expansions is not straightforward. Jekeli’s renormalization simplifies the computation of the associated Legendre functions. We extended the direct computation of these functions—as well as that of their ratio—up to the second derivatives and minimized the number of required recurrences by a suitable hypergeometric transformation. Compared with the original Jekeli’s renormalization the associated Legendre differential equation is fulfilled up to much higher degrees and orders for our optimized recurrences. The derived functions were tested by comparing functionals of the gravitational potential computed with both ellipsoidal and spherical harmonic syntheses. As an input, the high resolution global gravity field model EGM2008 was used. The relative agreement we found between the results of ellipsoidal and spherical syntheses is 10^?14, 10^?12 and 10^?8 for the potential and its first and second derivatives, respectively. Using the original renormalization, this agreement is 10^?12, 10^?8 and 10^?5, respectively. In addition, our optimized recurrences require less computation time as the number of required terms for the hypergeometric functions is less.