Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO2

The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by 50 m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000 ka followed by its reappearance 900 ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900 ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900 ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing.Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO₂. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO₂ would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO₂ rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO₂ by 7–12 ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT.     

Otolith shape as a stock discrimination tool for ling (Genypterus blacodes) in the fjords of Chilean Patagonia

ABSTRACT

Genypterus blacodes, in terms of its fishing history and local economic importance, is an emblematic species harvested in Chilean Patagonia (41°00’–57°00’S). Most of the current fisheries and biological knowledge of this species come from the open ocean, whereas information about the species in fjords and inner channels is fragmentary. In 2018, two research surveys targeting G. blacodes were conducted in the fjords and inner channels of Chilean Patagonia. A total of 253 pairs of sagittal otoliths were sampled at three different localities, and their contours were modelled using wavelet analysis as a tool for stock discrimination. Contours were compared using canonical analysis, and classification was performed using linear discriminant and Random Forest analyses. The results indicated that the wavelet method is efficient in modelling otolith contours, and the discriminant analyses showed differences among fishing grounds across the latitudinal gradient, thus confirming the hypothesis that G. blacodes conform to at least two separate stock units in Chilean Patagonia. Fishing grounds that were closer in space showed higher levels of misclassification. The discussion focuses on how environmental variables and the geography of fjords shape stock differences and how this information can be used for the sustainable management of G. blacodes.     

An exact solution to the relativistic advance of perihelion: correcting the Einstein approximation

New calculations of the main term of the advance of perihelion for the asteroid Icarus and planet Mercury are discussed. With the help of this author’s previously published formula for the advance, results are then compared to the values given by Einstein’s approximation.     

Non-parametric copulas for circular–linear and circular–circular data: an application to wind directions

This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to estimating the dependence relationships between circular variables and other circular or linear variables using copulas. The proposed method is based on the use of Bernstein copulas which are a very flexible class of non-parametric copulas which allows for the approximation of any kind of dependence structure, including non symmetric relationships. In particular, we present a simple procedure to adapt Bernstein copulas to the circular framework and guarantee that the constructed bivariate distributions are strictly continuous. We provide two illustrative case studies, the first on the relation between wind direction and quantity of rainfall in the North of Spain and the second on the dependence between the wind directions in two nearby buoys at the Atlantic ocean.     

Trajectory Ontologies and Queries

Many real world applications today are built on analyses of movement and related features. Examples of such applications include transportation management, urban planning, tourism services, and animal migration monitoring, among others. Recent database modeling and management research prototypes have the capability to store and manipulate movement data in terms of point or region geometries that evolve over time (moving point or moving and deforming region). This captures the spatio‐temporal trace left by a moving object, but ignores its links with non‐geometric information that enable a semantic interpretation of the movement of moving objects. The concept of trajectory has been introduced to express a more semantic understanding of movement, taking it closer to the perception of applications. This article describes a framework for a semantics‐oriented structuring, modeling and querying of trajectory data. The framework relies on the definition of trajectory‐related ontologies, addressing domain‐independent and application‐specific geometric and semantic facets. Last we briefly discuss how the proposed approach has been applied for a traffic management application.     

Structural evolution of the Orange Basin gravity-driven system,offshore Namibia

The Orange Basin records the development of the Late Jurassic to present day volcanic-rifted passive margin of Namibia. Regional extension is recorded by a Late Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous Syn-rift Megasequence, which is separated from a Cretaceous to present day post-rift Megasequence by the Late Hauterivian (ca. 130 Ma) break-up unconformity. The Late Cretaceous Post-rift evolution of the basin is characterized by episodic gravitational collapse of the margin. Gravitational collapse is recorded as a series of shale-detached gravity slide systems, consisting of an up-dip extensional domain that is linked to a down-dip zone of contraction domain along a thin basal detachment of Turonian age. The extensional domain is characterized by basinward-dipping listric faults that sole into the basal detachment. The contractional domain consists of landward-dipping listric faults and strongly asymmetric basinward-verging thrust-related folds. Growth stratal patterns suggest that the gravitational collapse of the margin was short-lived, spanning from the Coniacian (ca. 90 Ma) to the Santonian (ca. 83 Ma). Structural restorations of the main gravity-driven system show a lack of balance between up-dip extension (24 km) and down-dip shortening (16 km). Gravity sliding in the Namibian margin is interpreted to have occurred as a series of episodic short-lived gravity sliding between the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma) and the Campanian (ca. 80 Ma). Gravity sliding and spreading are interpreted to be the result of episodic cratonic uplift combined with differential thermal subsidence. Sliding may have also been favoured by the presence of an efficient detachment layer in Turonian source rocks.     

Horizontal dynamic stiffness of pile groups: Approximate expressions

A number of solutions and computer programs are already available to determine the dynamic stiffness of complete pile foundations, assuming linear elastic soil behavior and perfect bonding between the piles and the surrounding soil. These are assumptions that would be generally valid for properly designed machine foundations where very small strains should be expected. A number of approximate formulations have also been developed. Among these the most commonly used one is that proposed by Poulos (1971) [12] for the static case, computing interaction coefficients between the heads of two piles considered by themselves, then forming a matrix of these coefficients to obtain the interaction between the heads of all the piles in the group. Additional approximations have been suggested, particularly for the computation of the interaction coefficients, using closed form expressions. In this paper, approximate expressions that can be used for preliminary estimates, at the very early stages of the design, without the need of computers, are presented. They are intended for pile groups with pile spacing of the order of 3 diameters, typical relations between the modulus of elasticity of the piles and that of the soil between 100 and 1000, and very small amplitude vibrations.     

Horizontal soil stress changes around displacement piles

A simplified analysis of the problem of horizontal soil stress changes around circular displacement piles, caused by pile placement, is presented. Pile installation is assumed to cause soil displacements in the horizontal direction only, thus yielding an axisymmetric problem. The soil surrounding the pile is modelled as a weightless non-linear elastic material. Material non-linearity is handled in a simplified manner by adopting secant shear moduli defined in terms of a proportionality coefficient and a softening factor. The resulting equilibrium equation is solved analytically and an expression is obtained which is also conveniently presented in graphical form. The derived expression can be used to estimate horizontal soil stress changes and is incorporated into a simple procedure to estimate the ultimate load or the efficiency of pile groups. Comparisons are made between efficiencies calculated according to this procedure and efficiencies measured in full-scale group load tests in sand.