Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Field Survey and Numerical Simulations: A Review of the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami

— The Papua New Guinea (PNG) tsunami of 1998 is re-examined through a detailed review of the field survey as well as numerous numerical computations. The discussion of the field survey explores a number of possible misinterpretations of the recorded data. The survey data are then employed by a numerical model as a validation tool. A Boussinesq model and a nonlinear shallow water wave (NLSW) model are compared in order to quantify the effect of frequency dispersion on the landslide-generated tsunami. The numerical comparisons indicate that the NLSW model is a poor estimator of offshore wave heights. However, due to what appears to be depth-limited breaking seaward of Sissano spit, both numerical models are in agreement in the prediction of maximum water elevations at the overtopped spit. By comparing three different hot-start initial profiles of the tsunami wave, it is shown that the initial shape and orientation of the tsunami wave is secondary to the initial displaced water mass in regard to prediction of water elevations on the spit. These numerical results indicate that agreement between numerical prediction of runup values with field recorded values at PNG cannot be used to validate either a NLSW tsunami propagation model or a specific landslide tsunami hot-start initial condition. Finally, with the use of traditional tsunami codes, a new interpretation of the PNG runup measurements is presented.     

Direct Conversion of Food Waste into 3D Porous Carbon Traps for Selective Adsorption of Cationic Dyes

Conversion of waste biomass into valuable functional materials accomplishes the concept of circular economy in the development of sustainable waste management, and also recovery of such resources possibly reduces the requirement of feedstocks. In this scenario, the development of methodologies toward the direct conversion of the raw biomass into solid adsorbent materials without the use of any templates is highly desirable, but exceptionally challenging due to the complexity of the process. Here the direct synthesis of 3D porous carbon traps by a simple, cost-effective, and template-free process starting from a kitchen-based recipe and fermented food waste is described. Precisely, a robust carbon trap is formed with a spongy structure and highly interconnected hierarchical pores after the pyrolysis of a rice-based foam in the air. The developed materials float on water and interact efficiently with cationic dyes at static conditions. Importantly, such performance of the 3D carbon traps is not affected in the presence of anionic dyes, indicating the excellent selectivity towards the adsorption of cationic dyes. The adsorbent can be easily recovered and reused for up to 3 cycles without releasing any byproducts, thus, without causing hazardous risk of any secondary pollution to the environment.     

The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO2

The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by 50 m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000 ka followed by its reappearance 900 ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900 ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900 ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing.Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO₂. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO₂ would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO₂ rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO₂ by 7–12 ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT.     

An exact solution to the relativistic advance of perihelion: correcting the Einstein approximation

New calculations of the main term of the advance of perihelion for the asteroid Icarus and planet Mercury are discussed. With the help of this author’s previously published formula for the advance, results are then compared to the values given by Einstein’s approximation.     

Non-parametric copulas for circular–linear and circular–circular data: an application to wind directions

This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to estimating the dependence relationships between circular variables and other circular or linear variables using copulas. The proposed method is based on the use of Bernstein copulas which are a very flexible class of non-parametric copulas which allows for the approximation of any kind of dependence structure, including non symmetric relationships. In particular, we present a simple procedure to adapt Bernstein copulas to the circular framework and guarantee that the constructed bivariate distributions are strictly continuous. We provide two illustrative case studies, the first on the relation between wind direction and quantity of rainfall in the North of Spain and the second on the dependence between the wind directions in two nearby buoys at the Atlantic ocean.     

Diagenetic paths in the margin of a Triassic Basin: NW zone of the Iberian Chain, Spain

Buntsandstein deposits generated in a slowly subsiding basin on the western margin of the Iberian Chain are represented by a stratigraphic succession of fluvial deposits less than 100 m thick (conglomerates, sandstones, and shales). Diagenetic processes in sandstones can be grouped as eodiagenetic, mesodiagenetic, and telodiagenetic. Eodiagenesis can be associated with Muschelkalk, Keuper, and probably early Jurassic times. Mesodiagenesis is probably related to Jurassic times. Diagenetic chemical reactions suggest a maximum burial less than 1.5 km and low temperatures (<120°C). Patterns of porosity reduction by compaction and cementation suggest four diagenetic stages: (1) Loss of primary porosity by early mechanical compaction; (2) early cementation (K-feldspar and dolomite); (3) dissolution of cements; and (4) framework collapse by re-compaction. These stages are manifested by the presence of two types of sandstone. Type I sandstones present high intergranular volume (mean, 30%). Type II sandstones are characterized by high compactional porosity loss and exhibit low values of intergranular volume (mean, 16.9%). Type II sandstones are associated with the dissolution of cement and later re-compaction of type I sandstones. An intermediate telodiagenetic phase is deduced and related to the sharp unconformity between Lower Cretaceous sediments and the underlying sediments. This suggests that a mechanically unstable framework collapsed during the Cretaceous, generating type II sandstones. The analyzed diagenetic paths have a wide applicability on similar marginal areas of rift basins.     

Trajectory Ontologies and Queries

Many real world applications today are built on analyses of movement and related features. Examples of such applications include transportation management, urban planning, tourism services, and animal migration monitoring, among others. Recent database modeling and management research prototypes have the capability to store and manipulate movement data in terms of point or region geometries that evolve over time (moving point or moving and deforming region). This captures the spatio‐temporal trace left by a moving object, but ignores its links with non‐geometric information that enable a semantic interpretation of the movement of moving objects. The concept of trajectory has been introduced to express a more semantic understanding of movement, taking it closer to the perception of applications. This article describes a framework for a semantics‐oriented structuring, modeling and querying of trajectory data. The framework relies on the definition of trajectory‐related ontologies, addressing domain‐independent and application‐specific geometric and semantic facets. Last we briefly discuss how the proposed approach has been applied for a traffic management application.