Runup uncertainty on planar beaches

Parameterization of wave runup is of paramount importance for an assessment of coastal hazards. Parametric models employ wave (e.g., H_s and L_p) and beach (i.e., β) parameters to estimate extreme runup (e.g., R_2%). Thus, recent studies have been devoted to improving such parameterizations by including additional information regarding wave forcing or beach morphology features. However, the effects of intra-wave dynamics, related to the random nature of the wave transformation process, on runup statistics have not been incorporated. This work employs a phase- and depth- resolving model, based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, to investigate different sources of variability associated with runup on planar beaches. The numerical model is validated with laboratory runup data. Subsequently, the role of both aleatory uncertainty and other known sources of runup variability (i.e., frequency spreading and bed roughness) is investigated. Model results show that aleatory uncertainty can be more important than the contributions from other sources of variability such as the bed roughness and frequency spreading. Ensemble results are employed to develop a new parametric model which uses the Hunt (J Waterw Port Coastal Ocean Eng 85:123–152, 1959) scaling parameter \(\beta \left (H_{s}L_{p}\right )^{1/2}\).

     

Geodetic constraints on active tectonics of the Western Mediterranean: Implications for the kinematics and dynamics of the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary zone

We present GPS observations in Morocco and adjacent areas of Spain from 15 continuous (CGPS) and 31 survey-mode (SGPS) sites extending from the stable part of the Nubian plate to central Spain. We determine a robust velocity field for the W Mediterranean that we use to constrain models for the Iberia-Nubia plate boundary. South of the High Atlas Mountain system, GPS motions are consistent with Nubia plate motions from prior geodetic studies. We constrain shortening in the Atlas system to <1.5 mm/yr, 95% confidence level. North of the Atlas Mountains, the GPS velocities indicate Nubia motion with respect to Eurasia, but also a component of motion normal to the direction of Nubia-Eurasia motion, consisting of southward translation of the Rif Mountains in N Morocco at rates exceeding 5 mm/yr. This southward motion appears to be directly related to Miocene opening of the Alboran Sea. The Betic Mountain system north of the Alboran Sea is characterized by WNW motion with respect to Eurasia at ～1–2 mm/yr, paralleling Nubia-Eurasia relative motion. In addition, sites located in the Betics north of the southerly moving Rif Mountains also indicate a component of southerly motion with respect to Eurasia. We interpret this as indicating that deformation associated with Nubia-Eurasia plate motion extends into the southern Betics, but also that the Betic system may be affected by the same processes that are causing southward motion of the Rif Mountains south of the Alboran Sea. Kinematic modeling indicates that plate boundary geometries that include a boundary through the Straits of Gibraltar are most compatible with the component of motion in the direction of relative plate motion, but that two additional blocks (Alboran-Rif block, Betic Mountain block), independent of both Nubia and Eurasia are needed to account for the motions of the Rif and Betic Mountains normal to the direction of relative plate motion. We speculate that the southward motions of the Alboran-Rif and Betic blocks may be related to mantle flow, possibly induced by southward rollback of the subducted Nubian plate beneath the Alboran Sea and Rif Mountains.     

Structural evolution of the Orange Basin gravity-driven system,offshore Namibia

The Orange Basin records the development of the Late Jurassic to present day volcanic-rifted passive margin of Namibia. Regional extension is recorded by a Late Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous Syn-rift Megasequence, which is separated from a Cretaceous to present day post-rift Megasequence by the Late Hauterivian (ca. 130 Ma) break-up unconformity. The Late Cretaceous Post-rift evolution of the basin is characterized by episodic gravitational collapse of the margin. Gravitational collapse is recorded as a series of shale-detached gravity slide systems, consisting of an up-dip extensional domain that is linked to a down-dip zone of contraction domain along a thin basal detachment of Turonian age. The extensional domain is characterized by basinward-dipping listric faults that sole into the basal detachment. The contractional domain consists of landward-dipping listric faults and strongly asymmetric basinward-verging thrust-related folds. Growth stratal patterns suggest that the gravitational collapse of the margin was short-lived, spanning from the Coniacian (ca. 90 Ma) to the Santonian (ca. 83 Ma). Structural restorations of the main gravity-driven system show a lack of balance between up-dip extension (24 km) and down-dip shortening (16 km). Gravity sliding in the Namibian margin is interpreted to have occurred as a series of episodic short-lived gravity sliding between the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma) and the Campanian (ca. 80 Ma). Gravity sliding and spreading are interpreted to be the result of episodic cratonic uplift combined with differential thermal subsidence. Sliding may have also been favoured by the presence of an efficient detachment layer in Turonian source rocks.     

EVA: GPS-based extended velocity and acceleration determination

In this work, a new GPS carrier phase-based velocity and acceleration determination method is presented that extends the effective range of previous techniques. The method is named ‘EVA’, and may find applications in fields such as airborne gravimetry when rough terrain or water bodies make difficult or impractical to set up nearby GPS reference receivers. The EVA method is similar to methods such as Kennedy (Precise acceleration determination from carrier phase measurements. In: Proceedings of the 15th international technical meeting of the satellite division of the Institute of Navigation. ION GPS 2002, Portland pp 962–972, 2002b) since it uses L1 carrier phase observables for velocity and acceleration determination. However, it introduces a wide network of stations and it is independent of precise clock information because it estimates satellite clock drifts and drift rates ‘on-the-fly’, requiring only orbit data of sufficient quality. Moreover, with EVA the solution rate is only limited by data rate, and not by the available precise satellite clocks data rate. The results obtained are more robust for long baselines than the results obtained with the reference Kennedy method. An advantage of being independent of precise clock information is that, beside IGS Final products, also the Rapid, Ultra-Rapid (observed) and Ultra-Rapid (predicted) products may be used. Moreover, the EVA technique may also use the undifferenced ionosphere-free carrier phase combination (LC), overcoming baseline limitations in cases where ionosphere gradients may be an issue and very low biases are required. During the development of this work, some problems were found in the velocity estimation process of the Kennedy method. The sources of the problems were identified, and an improved version of the Kennedy method was used for this research work. An experiment was performed using a light aircraft flying over the Pyrenees, showing that both EVA and the improved Kennedy methods are able to cope with the dynamics of mountainous flight. A RTK-derived solution was also generated, and when comparing the three methods to a known zero-velocity reference the results yielded similar performance. The EVA and the improved-Kennedy methods outperformed the RTK solutions, and the EVA method provided the best results in this experiment. Finally, both the improved version of the Kennedy method and the EVA method were applied to a network in equatorial South America with baselines of more than 1,770 km, and during local noon. Under this tough scenario, the EVA method showed a clear advantage for all components of velocity and acceleration, yielding better and more robust results.     

Horizontal soil stress changes around displacement piles

A simplified analysis of the problem of horizontal soil stress changes around circular displacement piles, caused by pile placement, is presented. Pile installation is assumed to cause soil displacements in the horizontal direction only, thus yielding an axisymmetric problem. The soil surrounding the pile is modelled as a weightless non-linear elastic material. Material non-linearity is handled in a simplified manner by adopting secant shear moduli defined in terms of a proportionality coefficient and a softening factor. The resulting equilibrium equation is solved analytically and an expression is obtained which is also conveniently presented in graphical form. The derived expression can be used to estimate horizontal soil stress changes and is incorporated into a simple procedure to estimate the ultimate load or the efficiency of pile groups. Comparisons are made between efficiencies calculated according to this procedure and efficiencies measured in full-scale group load tests in sand.     

Kinematic Subsystems of the Ionized Gas in the Central Region of NGC 1068 Inferred from the [O III] λλ 4959, 5007 and [S III] λ 9069 Emission Lines

We discuss the multi-Gaussian decomposition of the [O III] λλ 4959,5007 emission line profiles from 2-D spectroscopy. We found that a model based on five main gaseous components can reproduce the observed line profiles consistently. The morphology of the intensity maps of some of these gaseous subsystems seems bipolar. This is in better agreement with current ideas about the alignment of the ionization in AGNs than the relatively amorphous morphology seen in filter images. The centre of the inter-pole region is sited ~ 2″ NE of the optical nucleus, close to the origin of the strong outflow of ionized gas recently reported (Arribas et al. 1996). This suggests that the putative hidden nucleus of NGC 1068 could be sited near to this point.     

Attitude dynamics of a rigid body on a Keplerian orbit: A simplification

An infinitestimal contact transformation is proposed to simplify at first order the Hamiltonian representing the attitude of a triaxial rigid body on a Keplerian orbit around a mass point. The simplified problem reduces to the Euler-Poinsot model, but with moments of inertia depending on time through the longitude in orbit. Should the orbit be circular, the moments of inertia would be constant.     

The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics, mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric pCO2

The emergence of low-frequency, high-amplitude, quasi-periodic (100-kyr) glacial variability during the middle Pleistocene in the absence of any significant change in orbital forcing indicates a fundamental change internal to the climate system. This middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) began 1250 ka and was complete by 700 ka. Its onset was accompanied by decreases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and tropical-ocean upwelling regions and by an increase in African and Asian aridity and monsoonal intensity. During the MPT, long-term average ice volume gradually increased by 50 m sea-level equivalent, whereas low-frequency ice-volume variability experienced a 100-kyr lull centered on 1000 ka followed by its reappearance 900 ka, although as a broad band of power rather than a narrow, persistent 100-kyr cycle. Additional changes at 900 ka indicate this to be an important time during the MPT, beginning with an 80-kyr event of extreme SST cooling followed by the partial recovery and subsequent stabilization of long-term North Atlantic and tropical ocean SSTs, increasing Southern Ocean SST variability primarily associated with warmer interglacials, the loss of permanent subpolar sea-ice cover, and the emergence of low-frequency variability in Pacific SSTs and global deep-ocean circulation. Since 900 ka, ice sheets have been the only component of the climate system to exhibit consistent low-frequency variability. With the exception of a near-universal organization of low-frequency power associated with marine isotope stages 11 and 12, all other components show an inconsistent distribution of power in frequency-time space, suggesting a highly nonlinear system response to orbital and ice-sheet forcing.Most hypotheses for the origin of the MPT invoke a response to a long-term cooling, possibly induced by decreasing atmospheric pCO₂. None of these hypotheses, however, accounts for the geological constraint that the earliest Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covered a similar or larger area than those that followed the MPT. Given that the MPT was associated with an increase in ice volume, this constraint requires that post-MPT ice sheets were substantially thicker than pre-MPT ice sheets, indicating a change in subglacial conditions that influence ice dynamics. We review evidence in support of the hypothesis that such an increase in ice thickness occurred as crystalline Precambrian Shield bedrock became exposed by glacial erosion of a thick mantle of regolith. This exposure of a high-friction substrate caused thicker ice sheets, with an attendant change in their response to the orbital forcing. Marine carbon isotope data indicate a rapid transfer of organic carbon to inorganic carbon in the ocean system during the MPT. If this carbon came from terrigenous sources, an increase in atmospheric pCO₂ would be likely, which is inconsistent with evidence for widespread cooling, Apparently rapid carbon transfer from terrestrial sources is difficult to reconcile with gradual erosion of regolith. A more likely source of organic carbon and nutrients (which would mitigate pCO₂ rise) is from shelf and upper slope marine sediments, which were fully exposed for the first time in millions of years in response to thickening ice sheets and falling sealevels during the MPT. Modeling indicates that regolith erosion and resulting exposure of crystalline bedrock would cause an increase in long-term silicate weathering rates, in good agreement with marine Sr and Os isotopic records. We use a carbon cycle model to show that a post-MPT increase in silicate weathering rates would lower atmospheric pCO₂ by 7–12 ppm, suggesting that the attendant cooling may have been an important feedback in causing the MPT.     

Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin

During 2009 the Amazon basin was hit by a heavy flooding with a magnitude and duration few times observed in several decades. Torrential rain in northern and eastern Amazonia during the austral summer of 2008–2009 swelled the Amazon River and its tributaries. By July 2009, water levels of the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, reached at Manaus harbor a new record, the highest mark of the last 107?years. During the 2008–2009 hydrological year, the rainy season on northern and northwestern Amazonia started prematurely, and was followed by a longer-than-normal rainy season. An anomalously southward migration of the ITCZ during May–June 2009, due to the warmer than normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic, was responsible for abundant rainfall in large regions of eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil from May to July 2009. We also compared the flood of 2009 with other major events recorded in 1989 and 1999. The hydrological consequences of this pattern were earlier than normal floods in Amazon northern tributaries, which peak discharges at their confluences with the main stem almost coincided with the peaks of southern tributaries. Since the time displacement of the contribution to the main stem of northern and southern Amazon tributaries is fundamental for damping flood waves in the main stem, the simultaneous combinations of peak discharges of tributaries resulted in an extreme flood.