ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8^″) or as large as 1.3 m (50^″).     

Impacts of Indian Ocean SST biases on the Indian Monsoon: as simulated in a global coupled model

In this study, the impact of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the atmospheric mean state over the Indian Ocean and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is examined in the framework of the SINTEX-F2 coupled model through forced and coupled control simulations and several sensitivity coupled experiments. During boreal winter and spring, most of the Indian Ocean biases are common in forced and coupled simulations, suggesting that the errors originate from the atmospheric model, especially a dry islands bias in the Maritime Continent. During boreal summer, the air-sea coupling decreases the ISM rainfall over South India and the monsoon strength to realistic amplitude, but at the expense of important degradations of the rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mean states in the Indian Ocean. Strong SST biases of opposite sign are observed over the western (WIO) and eastern (EIO) tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts over the ocean (land) are systematically higher (lower) in the northern hemisphere and the south equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall band is missing in the control coupled simulation. During boreal fall, positive dipole-like errors emerge in the mean state of the coupled model, with warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the WIO (EIO), suggesting again a significant impact of the SST errors. The exact contributions and the distinct roles of these SST errors in the seasonal mean atmospheric state of the coupled model have been further assessed with two sensitivity coupled experiments, in which the SST biases are replaced by observed climatology either in the WIO (warm bias) or EIO (cold bias). The correction of the WIO warm bias leads to a global decrease of rainfall in the monsoon region, which confirms that the WIO is an important source of moisture for the ISM. On the other hand, the correction of the EIO cold bias leads to a global improvement of precipitation and circulation mean state during summer and fall. Nevertheless, all these improvements due to SST corrections seem drastically limited by the atmosphere intrinsic biases, including prominently the unimodal oceanic position of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) during summer and the enhanced westward wind stress along the equator during fall.     

Cloud-radiation feedbacks in a general circulation model and their dependence on cloud modelling assumptions

The general circulation model (GCM) used in this study includes a prognostic cloud scheme and a rather detailed radiation scheme. In a preceding paper, we showed that this model was more sensitive to a global perturbation of the sea surface temperatures than most other models with similar physical parametrization. The experiments presented here show how this feature might depend on some of the cloud modelling assumptions. We have changed the temperature at which the water clouds are allowed to become ice clouds and analyzed separately the feedbacks associated with the variations of cloud cover and cloud radiative properties. We show that the feedback effect associated with cloud radiative properties is positive in one case and negative in the other. This can be explained by the elementary cloud radiative forcing and has implications concerning the use of the GCMs for climate sensitivity studies.     

Modeling spatial landslide susceptibility in volcanic terrains through continuous neighborhood spatial analysis and multiple logistic regression in La Ciénega watershed,Nevado de Toluca,Mexico

Natural Hazards - Little study has been done on the effect of the pixel neighborhood information when modeling landslide susceptibility using multiple logistic regression (MLR). The present...     

Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Occurrence and Resistance of Pathogenic Bacteria Along the Tietê River Downstream of São Paulo in Brazil

The load of pathogenic bacteria, their fate and their dangerousness in the Tietê River were assessed along 100 km starting from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The data were compared with those from two German rivers. High loads of pathogens were found in the Tietê River near the city of São Paulo (Escherichia coli O157:H7, Shigella flexneri, and Shigella boydii), which were absent 30 km downstream of São Paulo. The antibiotic resistances observed in the Tietê river were rather low and decreased after the major input in São Paulo to significantly lower levels about 30 km downstream. While the Brazilian isolates were more susceptible for ampicillin than the German ones, the reverse was observed for gentamycin. For optimal control of infections in humans critical areas where these bacteria survived longer and their elimination mechanisms should be identified as well as the extent and the origin of antibiotic resistance should be determined.