Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

An iron-bearing wave-dominated siliciclastic shelf: Facies analysis and palaeogeographic implications (Silurian-Lower Devonian Sierra Grande Formation,Southern Argentina)

The Sierra Grande Formation (Silurian-Early Devonian) consists of quartz arenites associated with clast supported conglomerates, mudstones, shales and ironstones. Eight sedimentary facies are recognized: cross-stratified and massive sandstone, plane bedded sandstone, ripple laminated sandstone, interstratified sandstone and mudstone, laminated mudstone and shale, oolitic ironstone, massive conglomerate and sheet conglomerate lags. These facies are interpreted as shallow marine deposits, ranging from foreshore to inner platform environments. Facies associations, based on vertical relationships among lithofacies, suggest several depositional zones: (a) beach to upper shoreface, with abundant plane bedded and massive bioturbated sandstones; (b) upper shoreface to breaker zone, characterized by multistorey cross-stratified and massive sandstone bodies interpreted as subtidal longshore-flow induced sand bars; (c) subtidal, nearshore tidal sand bars, consisting of upward fining sandstone sequences; (d) lower shoreface zone, dominated by ripple laminated sandstone, associated with cross-stratified and horizontal laminated sandstone, formed by translatory and oscillatory flows; and (e) transitional nearshore-offshore and inner platform zones, with heterolithic and pelitic successions, and oolitic ironstone horizons. Tidal currents, fair weather waves and storm events interacted during the deposition of the Sierra Grande Formation. However, the relevant features of the siliciclastics suggest that fair weather and storm waves were the most important mechanisms in sediment accumulation. The Silurian-Lower Devonian platform was part of a continental interior sag located between southern South America and southern Africa. The Sierra Grande Formation was deposited during a second order sea level rise, in which a shallow epeiric sea flooded a deeply weathered low relief continent.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Cartographic Design and the Space–Time Cube

This paper reports on the results of an empirical evaluation that aimed to define the effectiveness and efficiency of different visual variables in depicting the Space–Time Cube’s (STC) content. Existing STC applications demonstrate that the most used visual variables are size and colour hue. Less is known, however, about their usability metrics. The research sets design criteria for STC contents, such as space–time paths, based on the cartographic design theory. The visual variables colour hue, colour value, colour saturation, size and orientation have been applied in two different use case studies. Besides, to support the three-dimensional visual environment, depth cues such as shading and transparency were considered too. User tests have been executed based on real-world problems with particular attention for the visualization strategy and data complexity. The outcomes revealed the most efficient and effective visual variables to represent data of various complexities in the STC.     

GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

Size Fractionation (Dissolved, Colloidal and Particulate) of Trace Metals in the Thur River, Switzerland

The distribution of some trace metals (Cu, Zn, Ni, Co,Fe, Mn) and of DOC over a particulate (> 1 m),a colloidal (size < 0.45 m and molecular weight > 10 kD) and an ultrafiltered fraction (< 10 kD)was determined at several sites on the Thur River,Switzerland, at various times of the year. Thecomplexation of Cu by strong ligands in theultrafiltrate and in the conventional filtrate (<0.45 m) was compared using a ligand-exchange/CSV method.The <0.45 m concentrations of Cu (from anaverage of 7 nM to 24 nM), Zn (<5–23 nM), Ni (5–13 nM),Co (1.5–3 nM) and Mn (7–92 nM)increased downstream. The major part of Cu, Zn, Niand Co usually occurred in the ultrafiltratefraction at all sites, whereas Fe and Mn were mostlyin the particulate fraction, under conditions of lowsuspended matter content (< 10 mg L^-1) in theriver. The percentage of metal in the colloidalfraction, with respect to the 0.45-m filtrate,decreased in the order: Cu (median 11%) > Zn Ni(median 5–6%) > Mn Co (median < 5%). DOCalso consisted mostly of molecules in the < 10 kDrange.Cu was strongly complexed by natural organic ligandsin all filtrate and ultrafiltrate samples. A largepart of the strong Cu binding ligands consisted ofcompounds in the < 10 kD range, but colloidalligands with similar properties also occurred. Cu wasdistributed among the dissolved and the colloidalligands, roughly in proportion to organic carbon.The colloidal fraction (as defined here) did notincrease in its proportional amount downstream and wasonly of limited significance in transporting traceelements in the Thur River under low discharge conditions.     

Molecular indicators for palaeoenvironmental change in a Messinian evaporitic sequence (Vena del Gesso, Italy). II: High-resolution variations in abundances and 13C contents of free and sulphur-bound carbon skeletons in a single marl bed

The extractable organic matter of 10 immature samples from a marl bed of one evaporitic cycle of the Vena del Gesso sediments (Gessoso-solfifera Fm., Messinian, Italy) was analyzed quantitatively for free hydrocarbons and organic sulphur compounds. Nickel boride was used as a desulphurizing agent to recover sulphur-bound lipids from the polar and asphaltene fractions. Carbon isotopic compositions (delta vs PDB) of free hydrocarbons and of S-bound hydrocarbons were also measured. Relationships between these carbon skeletons, precursor biolipids, and the organisms producing them could then be examined. Concentrations of S-bound lipids and free hydrocarbons and their delta values were plotted vs depth in the marl bed and the profiles were interpreted in terms of variations in source organisms, 13 C contents of the carbon source, and environmentally induced changes in isotopic fractionation. The overall range of delta values measured was 24.7%, from -11.6% for a component derived from green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae) to -36.3% for a lipid derived from purple sulphur bacteria (Chromatiaceae). Deconvolution of mixtures of components deriving from multiple sources (green and purple sulphur bacteria, coccolithophorids, microalgae and higher plants) was sometimes possible because both quantitative and isotopic data were available and because either the free or S-bound pool sometimes appeared to contain material from a single source. Several free n-alkanes and S-bound lipids appeared to be specific products of upper-water-column primary producers (i.e. algae and cyanobacteria). Others derived from anaerobic photoautotrophs and from heterotrophic protozoa (ciliates), which apparently fed partly on Chlorobiaceae. Four groups of n-alkanes produced by algae or cyanobacteria were also recognized based on systematic variations of abundance and isotopic composition with depth. For hydrocarbons probably derived from microalgae, isotopic variations are well correlated with those of total organic carbon. A resistant aliphatic biomacromolecule produced by microalgae is, therefore, probably an important component of the kerogen. These variations reflect changes in the depositional environment and early diagenetic transformations. Changes in the concentrations of S-bound lipids induced by variations in conditions favourable for sulphurization were discriminated from those related to variations in primary producer assemblages. The water column of the lagoonal basin was stratified and photic zone anoxia occurred during the early and middle stages of marl deposition. During the last stage of the marl deposition the stratification collapsed due to a significant shallowing of the water column. Contributions from anaerobic photoautotrophs were apparently associated with variations in depth of the chemocline.     

Spatiotemporal changes in cadmium contamination in the Seine estuary (France)

Cadmium (Cd) is among the major contaminants in the Seine estuary. In the biota, the RNO (Réseau National d’Observation, the French Mussel-Watch) has shown that Cd concentrations in mussels living at the mouth of the estuary are related to changes in inputs to this area of phosphogypsum, a calcium sulphate that is a by-product of the phosphoric acid naturally enriched with Cd. In the water column, Cd concentrations at several key estuary sites show a very marked trend toward decreased contamination in the particles as well as in the dissolved phase. The behavior of Cd in the estuary has been studied between 1991 and 1998 in the framework of the scientific program Seine-Aval. This program has highlighted punctual Cd inputs in the estuarine water column. The partition of Cd between the dissolved and the particulate phase, previously described in various estuaries, is characterized by an intense phenomenon of solubilization in the mixing zone freshwater-seawater, but the colloidal Cd fraction remains low along the whole salinity gradient, about 5% to 10% of the apparent dissolved fraction. Although the decrease of inputs induced a fall of Cd concentrations in the water column, laboratory experiments show that the estuarine particles are far from being exhausted in Cd. Despite continuous efforts to reduce the urban and industrial inputs into the estuarine and coastal waters, the Seine estuary still remains very contaminated by Cd.     

Sequence stratigraphy of Holocene incised-valley fills and coastal evolution in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain)

This first sedimentary interpretation of two incised-valley fills in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain), which accumulated during the last fourth-order eustatic cycle in response to fluvial incision, changes of sea level, and correlative deposition, relates the filling of the estuarine basins and their barriers with four regional progradation phases, H₁ to H₄. The cases studied are the wave-dominated Guadalete, and the mixed, tide and wave-dominated Odiel-Tinto estuaries. The sequence boundary is a type-1 surface produced during the lowstand of the Last Glacial period ca. 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP. No fluvial lowstand deposits were found in the area. Due to rapid transgression the valley fills consist of transgressive and highstand sediments. The maximum landward advance of the estuarine barriers occurred ca. 6500–6000 ¹⁴C yr BP during the maximum of the Flandrian transgression, but there is no evidence of sea level rising appreciably above the present. A large part of the estuaries was filled during H₁ (ca. 6500–4400 ¹⁴C yr BP) but ravinement by shifting tidal inlets destroyed most of the coeval barriers. During the H₂ phase (ca. 4200–2550 ¹⁴C yr BP) sedimentation was favoured by arid conditions and concentrated in the axial estuarine zones and the barriers. Between H₂ and H₃ prevailing winds changed from W to WSW, increasing spit growth to the east and south-east. Progradation of bay-head deltas and flood-plains during H₃ (ca. 2300–800 ¹⁴C yr BP) and H₄ (500 yr ago to the present) further reduced the accommodation space in the largely-filled valleys, and sediment by-passed the estuaries and accumulated in the estuarine barriers as fast-growing spits. Arid conditions and increasing human activity have caused rapid coastal modifications.