Window technique for climate trend analysis

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Investigation of the instability of graveyard orbits due to the earth's gravitational perturbations

Summary The Banach theorem is applied to the Lagrange planetary equation for the semimajor axis of a geostationary satellite orbit to estimate the stability of near-geostationary satellite orbits. To achieve a graveyard (disposal) orbit, which will not interfere (=cross) the initial geostationary orbit, the geostationary semi-major axis a_g have to be increased at least by 50 km. Numerical results for a variety of graveyard orbits show that the increase of a_g by about 100 km will yield sufficiently stable orbits (accounting for the Earth's gravitational perturbations only) during the next 150 years.Dedicated to the 75th Birthday of Professor Academician Tibor Kolbenheyer     

Period variation of selected cepheids

The aim of the present paper is to study the period as well as -velocity changes of 12 cepheid-type variable stars in order to find possible evidence for duplicity. Light-time effect was found in the O-C diagram of RY CMa, the orbital period being about 5200 days. Furthermore, especially spectroscopic observations are needed to confirm the duplicity or render the accurate orbital solution possible.     

Cluster analysis of the space-time distribution of sunspot groups during solar cycle no. 20

Cluster analysis (a Bayesian iteration procedure) was used to study the space-time distribution of sunspot groups in the time interval from 1965 to 1977. (Data were taken from the Greenwich and Debrecen Heliographic Results.) The distribution proved to be significantly non-random for the 8–10 groups cluster^–1 (gr cl^–1) level of clustering. Convincing evidence also favours non-random behaviour for other levels of clustering from the lowest (3–4 gr cl^–1) up to the highest ( 150 gr cl^–1) level. The rotation rate of the non-random pattern is generally slightly lower than the Carrington rate.The 8–10 gr cl^–1 level, crudely corresponding to the sunspot nests investigated earlier, was studied in more detail. The cycle- and latitude-averaged rotational rate of the nests is slightly ( 1%) but significantly lower than the Carrington rate. Their differential rotation is strongly reduced: the cycle-averaged rotational rate varies only by 2–3% within the sunspot belt. A slight but significant bimodality is seen in the differential rotation curve: the intermediate latitudes ( 10°–20°) show a somewhat slower rotation than both the equatorial and the higher latitude regions. This might be explained by a time-dependence of the rotation rate coupled with the butterfly diagram.     

Strömgren photometry of a-stars: A test of physical parameter determination

By use of known published values forT _eff, logg, andM _v, a check on our procedure for determining the physical parameters of A v-type stars from Strömgren photometry has been performed. External errors for our calculated physical parameters have been obtained.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Investigation of the electrostatic charging of dust particles in a Paul-trap

Dust particles (glass, tungsten, and nickel) with sizes ranging from 0.25 to 3m were levitated in a Paul-trap and charged by ions or electrons. For ions the particle potential is limited at field strength of about 1×10⁹ V m^–1 by a temperature-dependent discharge mechanism. The particles interaction with 2 to 20 keV electrons always leads to positive surface potentials which can be explained in terms of a decreased absorption of electrons by small particles. Micrometer sized agglomerates were used for the investigation of the electrostatic fragmentation. Fragmentation takes place in a twofold manner: small surface flufl can be removed or the parent particle can be disrupted into smaller agglomerates.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Galactic structure parameters from radial velocities of young stars

Radial velocities of OB stars are utilised in order to determine the values of some galactic structure parameters in the solar neighbourhood.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Interstellar clouds and the formation of stars

Part I gives a survey of the drastic revision of cosmic plasma physics which is precipitated by the exploration of the magnetosphere throughin situ measurements. The pseudo-plasma formalism, which until now has almost completely dominated theoretical astrophysics, must be replaced by an experimentally based approach involving the introduction of a number of neglected plasma phenomena, such as electric double layers, critical velocity, and pinch effect. The general belief that star light is the main ionizer is shown to be doubtful; hydromagnetic conversion of gravitational and kinetic energy may often be much more important.In Part II the revised plasma physics is applied to dark clouds and star formation. Magnetic fields do not necessarily counteract the contraction of a cloud; they may just as well pinch the cloud. Magnetic compression may be the main mechanism for forming interstellar clouds and keeping them together.Part III treats the formation of stars in a dusty cosmic plasma cloud. Star formation is due to an instability, but it is very unlikely that it has anything to do with the Jeans instability. A reasonable mechanism is that the sedimentation of dust (including solid bodies of different size) is triggering off a gravitationally assisted accretion. A stellesimal accretion analogous to the planetesimal accretion leads to the formation of a star surrounded by a very low density hollow in the cloud. Matter falling in from the cloud towards the star is the raw material for the formation of planets and satellites.The study of the evolution of a dark cloud leads to a scenario of planet formation which is reconcilable with the results obtained from studies based on solar system data. This means that the new approach to cosmical plasma physics discussed in Part I logically leads to a consistent picture of the evolution of dark clouds and the formation of solar systems.     

Exact solution to radiation-filled Brans-Dicke closed space cosmology

Under the assumption of a power law (k·R ⁿ=C,C=const.) between the gravitational constantk and the radius of curvatureR of the Universe and forP=1/3 the exact solution is sought for the cosmological equations of Brans and Dicke. The solution turns out to be valid for closed space and the parameter of the scalar-tensor theory is necessarily negative. The radius of curvature increases linearly with respect to the age of the Universe while the gravitational constant grows with the square of the radius of curvature. It has been shown (Lessner, 1974) that in this case (KR ²) the spatial component of the field equations is independent of the remaining equations. However, our solution satisfies this independent equation. This solution for the radiation-dominated era corresponds to the solution for the matter-dominated era found by Dehnen and one of the authors (Dehnen and Obregón, 1971). Our solution, as is the solution previously obtained for the matter-dominated era, is in contradiction to Dirac's hypothesis in which the gravitational constant should decrease with time in an expanding Universe.     

Problems in relating the optical and X-ray emissions from a solar flare

We evaluate the possibility that the short-lived Balmer line emission at H9 3835 Å of the 1972, August 2 (1839 UT) solar flare is due to heating of the chromosphere by bombarding electrons. We point out some of the problems of comparing the time behavior and spatial distribution of simultaneous hard and soft X-ray emissions. It is concluded that the present data do not justify the attribution of the short-lived optical emission to the presumed hard X-ray producing electrons.