Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.     

Geometry and accuracy of reflecting points in bistatic satellite altimetry

The analysis of the time and space distribution of specular (reflecting) points in bistatic altimetry between GPS and CHAMP satellites or SAC-C (taken as examples) is extended from Wagner and Klokočník (2003 J. Geod 77: 128–138). We demonstrate a significantly higher number and density of reflecting points in bistatic altimetry in comparison with traditional monostatic altimetry. After an outline of our older accuracy assessment for the vertical position of the reflecting point, we add a new independent derivation and compare both approaches. We account for orbit errors of both the transmitters (GPS) and receiver (CHAMP) satellites, and the measurement (delay) error. We found that the accuracy of the vertical position of the reflecting point decreases only slowly with increasing off-nadir angle and that the orbit errors must be accounted for if decimeter and better accuracy is required. In this paper, we do not study errors such as state of the ocean, technical parameters of the receiving system, and atmospheric corrections.     

Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.     

Groundwater-flow modeling in the Yucatan karstic aquifer, Mexico

The current conceptual model of the unconfined karstic aquifer in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, is that a fresh-water lens floats above denser saline water that penetrates more than 40 km inland. The transmissivity of the aquifer is very high so the hydraulic gradient is very low, ranging from 7–10 mm/km through most of the northern part of the peninsula. The computer modeling program AQUIFER was used to investigate the regional groundwater flow in the aquifer. The karstified zone was modeled using the assumption that it acts hydraulically similar to a granular, porous medium. As part of the calibration, the following hypotheses were tested: (1) karstic features play an important role in the groundwater-flow system; (2) a ring or belt of sinkholes in the area is a manifestation of a zone of high transmissivity that facilitates the channeling of groundwater toward the Gulf of Mexico; and (3) the geologic features in the southern part of Yucatan influence the groundwater-flow system. The model shows that the Sierrita de Ticul fault, in the southwestern part of the study area, acts as a flow barrier and head values decline toward the northeast. The modeling also shows that the regional flow-system dynamics have not been altered despite the large number of pumping wells because the volume of water pumped is small compared with the volume of recharge, and the well-developed karst system of the region has a very high hydraulic conductivity. Electronic Publication     

Simultaneous use of geochemical and geophysical methods to characterise abandoned landfills

. Groundwater sampling and geophysical methods determined a serious contamination problem associated with refilled exploitation sites at the Cal Dimoni area, Llobregat delta, Barcelona, Spain. To characterise this process, hydrogeochemical analyses were performed and showed the following modifications to groundwater chemical composition: increasing pH values, changing redox conditions, significant increases in total organic carbon (TOC) and certain trace elements, and high groundwater conductivity values. Major ion content accumulations were found under the refilled area. In contrast, elements involved in the oxidation–reduction processes, such as iron, manganese and nitrates, clearly diminished. Electromagnetic prospecting methods were also performed and delineated the contamination plume extent. These methods also showed separate sources of contamination, one clearly related to the groundwater–refilled zone leachate interaction, another as a consequence of the manure–accumulation surface site. Geochemical and geophysical methods have shown similar results for locating groundwater contamination sources, and for determining leachate generation mechanisms and flow paths.     

Al hematites prepared by homogeneous precipitation of oxinates: material characterization and determination of the Morin transition

A novel method for synthesis of aluminium hematites, based upon the homogeneous precipitation of Fe and Al oxinates in various proportions, is presented. The precursor precipitates are heated in air at 700?°C. X-ray diffraction, thermal analyses, BET, FTIR, optical reflection analysis, TEM and Mössbauer spectroscopy at room temperature and 80?K of the resulting products indicate that single-phase hematites are formed with structural Al substitution of up to 10 at%. Interestingly, the particle size (>100?nm) is not substantially reduced by the Al content. Although it remains difficult to obtain a homogeneously distributed Al substitution in the final hematite, this processing line offers a unique opportunity to separate the effects of grain size and Al substitution on the Morin transition temperature (T _M) of Al hematite. From the comparison between the present hematites and a series of Al-substituted hematites with lepidocrocite as precursor, it could be shown that the effect on T _M, associated with a change of a factor 10 in grain size, is about 1/3 of the effect caused by a change of 10 in the degree of substitution. Finally, it is suggested that proper thermal treatments under different conditions of the same precursors are likely to produce spinel phases.     

Spatial and temporal variation of the nekton and hyperbenthos from a temperate European estuary with regulated freshwater inflow

The aquatic macrofauna of the Guadalquivir estuary were sampled (1 mm mesh persiana net) at 5 sampling sites located along the entire (except the tidal freshwater region) estuarine gradient of salinity (outer 50 km). A total of 134 fish and macroinvertebrate species was collected but only 62 were considered common or regularly present in the estuary. Univariate measures of the community structure showed statistically significant differences among sampling sites: species richness, abundance, and biomass decreased in the upstream direction, being positively correlated with the salinity. Temporal differences of these three variables were also statistically significant. While a clear seasonal pattern (minimum densities in winter and maximum in spring-summer) was observed for abundance and biomass, no such pattern existed for the number of species. Mysids was the most dominant group throughout the estuary (96% to 99% of abundance; 49% to 85% of biomass), although fish biomass was also important at the outer estuary (36% to 38%). Multivariate analyses indicated highly significant spatial variation in the macrofaunal communities observed along the salinity gradient. These analyses suggest that the underlying structure was a continuum with more or less overlapping distributions of the species dependent on their ability to tolerate different physicochemical conditions. There were also significant temporal (intermonthly + interannual) variation of the estuarine community; the relative multivariate dispersion indicated that monthly variation was more considerable (relative multivariate dispersion >1) at the outer part of the estuary during the wet year (last 20 km) and was higher in the inner stations during the dry year (32 to 50 km from the river mouth). Since a clear negative exponential relationship was observed between the freshwater input (from a dam located 110 km upstream) and water salinity at all sampling stations, it is concluded that the human freshwater management is probably affecting the studied estuarine communities. While the higher seasonal (long-term) stability of the salinity gradient, due to the human control of the freshwater input, may facilitate the recruitment of marine species juveniles during the meteorologically unstable early-spring, the additional (short-term) salinity fluctuations during the warm period may negatively affect species that complete their lifecycle within the estuary.     

An estuarine benthic index of biotic integrity for the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. II. Index development

A benthic index of biotic integrity was developed for use in estuaries of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States (Delaware Bay estuary through Albemarle-Pamlico Sound). The index was developed for the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Program (MAIA) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using procedures similar to those applied previously in Chesapeake Bay and southeastern estuaries, and was based on sampling in July through early October. Data from seven federal and state sampling programs were used to categorize sites as degraded or non-degraded based on dissolved oxygen, sediment contaminant, and sediment toxicity criteria. Various metrics of benthic community structure and function that distinguished between degraded and reference (non-degraded) sites were selected for each of five major habitat types defined by classification analysis of assemblages. Each metric was scored according to thresholds established on the distribution of values at reference sites, so that sites with low scoring metrics would be expected to show signs of degradation. For each habitat, metrics that correctly classified at least 50% of the degraded sites in the calibration data set were selected whenever possible to derive the index. The final index integrated the average score of the combination of metrics that performed best according to several criteria. Selected metrics included measures of productivity (abundance), diversity (number of taxa, Shannon-Wiener diversity, percent dominance), species composition and life history (percent abundance of pollution-indicative taxa, percent abundance of pollution-sensitive taxa, percent abundance of Bivalvia, Tanypodinae-Chironomidae abundance ratio), and trophic composition (percent abundance of deep-deposit feeders). The index correctly classified 82% of all sites in an independent data set. Classification efficiencies of sites were higher in the mesohaline and polyhaline habitats (81–92%) than in the oligohaline (71%) and the tidal freshwater (61%). Although application of the index to low salinity habitats should be done with caution, the MAIA index appeared to be quite reliable with a high likelihood of correctly identifying both degraded and non-degraded conditions. The index is expected to be of great utility in regional assessments as a tool for evaluating the integrity of benthic assemblages and tracking their condition over time.     

Seismic Hazard Estimate at the Iberian Peninsula

—?Seismic hazard at the Iberian Peninsula has been evaluated by using a methodology which combines both zonified and non-zonified probabilistic methods. Seismic sources are used when considering zones where certain calculation parameters may be considered homogeneous, as in zonified methods, while, on the other hand, earthquakes are considered wherever it has taken place, as in non-zonified methods. The methodology which is applied in this paper has been originally used to calculate the seismic hazard maps in the United States. In our case, it has been necessary to adapt the method to the specific features of the seismicity in the Iberian Peninsula and its geographical surroundings, not only with respect to its distribution and characteristics, but also with respect to the properties of the seismic catalog used.¶Geographically, the main feature of the result is the fact that it reflects both historical seismicity and current seismic clusters of the region. Despite the smoothing, maps show marked differences between several seismic zones; these differences becoming more noticeable as exposure time increases. Maximum seismic hazard is found to be in the southwestern region of the Peninsula, especially in the area of the Cape St. Vicent, and around Lisbon. The uncertainty of the results, without considering that due to the attenuation laws, as deduced from the other evaluation parameters, is quite stable, being more sensitive to the parameters b and m _max of the Gutenberg-Richter relation.