Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.     

Multicomponent ionic diffusion in porewaters: Coulombic effects revisited

The diffusion of an ion in porewaters cannot occur independently of the other ions in solution as a result of Coulombic coupling, as well as from other effects not considered here. Unfortunately, a longstanding disagreement exists about the correct form and meaning of the equations that describe Coulombic coupling in porewaters, i.e., Ben-Yaakov [Am. J. Sci. 281 (1981) 974] vs. Lasaga [Am. J. Sci. 281 (1981) 981]. This paper re-examines this controversy by reformulating the problem starting from fundamental concepts of mass and charge conservation. We show that these antagonistic formulations are both valid and, in fact, equivalent, when the different interpretations of charge balance are resolved. Most of the disagreements between Ben-Yaakov and Lasaga are then shown to result from differing methods of solution, not fundamental disparities in their models. We note, however, that the explanation for the concept of “stationary” gradients of nonreacting ions as given Ben-Yaakov is inaccurate, and such gradients do lead to diffusive fluxes that are counterbalanced by electrochemical migrational fluxes to produce no net flux (excluding advective flux). We further find that the bicarbonate diffusive flux will not balance the diffusional charge flux of sulfate during its reduction if advection is present. This latter imbalance generates compensating fluxes in the other nonreacting ions. We have applied our theory to a simplified case of sulfate reduction in a marine sediment. The results show that nonreacting ions do diffuse and that with normally expected values of porewater advection, the ratio of the bicarbonate to the sulfate flux can be far different than the ideal value of −2.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.     

Meshless BEM and overlapping Schwarz preconditioners for exterior problems on spheroids

We consider the exterior Neumann problem of the Laplacian with boundary condition on spheroids. We propose to use spherical radial basis functions in the solution of the boundary integral equation arising from the Dirichlet-to-Neumann map. Our meshless approach with radial basis functions is particularly suitable for handling scattered satellite data. We also propose a preconditioning technique based on an overlapping domain decomposition method to deal with ill-conditioned matrices arising from the approximation problem.     

Seasonal deformation regime of rifts in lowland rivers

Various schemes of within-year transformations of rifts from spring flood to low-water period and autumn freshets have been considered. Such transformations have been shown to manifest themselves in the displacement of rift trough from the upper to the lower point bars, accumulation of sediments in one phase of water regime and erosion of ridges in the other phase, as well as in the advancement of ridge-type micro- and meso-forms of channel relief onto rift saddle. Differences have been revealed between the regimes of rifts composed of sand and pebble-boulder sediments; specific features were identified in the regime of rifts in rivers in permafrost zones and rifts with rock protrusions on the bed.     

Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Application of SASHA to seismic hazard assessment for Portugal mainland

In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.