Estimation or simulation? That is the question

The issue of smoothing in kriging has been addressed either by estimation or simulation. The solution via estimation calls for postprocessing kriging estimates in order to correct the smoothing effect. Stochastic simulation provides equiprobable images presenting no smoothing and reproducing the covariance model. Consequently, these images reproduce both the sample histogram and the sample semivariogram. However, there is still a problem, which is the lack of local accuracy of simulated images. In this paper, a postprocessing algorithm for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates is compared with sequential Gaussian simulation realizations. Based on samples drawn from exhaustive data sets, the postprocessing algorithm is shown to be superior to any individual simulation realization yet, at the expense of providing one deterministic estimate of the random function.     

The airborne transport of Saharan dust: A review

The extent of the short and long-range transport, and the atmospheric residence time of airborne Saharan dust are dependent on factors like the initial size distribution of the dust and the type of weather systems raising dust and creating different kinds of dust storms.The paper discusses these factors. It further reviews a number of investigations of long-range transport of Saharan dust out from the Sahara, and shows how eolian dust can be monitored with the help of meteorological SYNOP and METAR observations.     

Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations

This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 \(^{\circ }\)C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (\(\sim \) 2 \(^{\circ }\)C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (\(\sim \) 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf.

     

Using Multiple Methods to Understand the Nature of Relationships in Social Networks

Effective natural resource management (NRM) often depends on collaboration through formal and informal relationships. Social network analysis (SNA) provides a framework for studying social relationships; however, a deeper understanding of the nature of these relationships is often missing. By integrating multiple analytical methods (including SNA, evidence ratings, and perception matrices), we were able to investigate the nature of relationships in NRM social networks across five service types (e.g., technical advice, on-ground support) in our case study region, Daly catchment Australia. Only one service type was rated as highly associated with free choice in establishing relationships: technical advice/knowledge. Beneficial characteristics of NRM organizations, such as collaborative and transparent, were associated with the presence of freely chosen relationships between organizations. Our results suggest a need to improve our understanding of organizational roles and characteristics, in particular for use in applied NRM contexts, such as network weaving or disseminating information.     

Thermal Structure of a Coastal–Urban Boundary Layer

We use various temperature profilers located in and around New York City to observe the structure and evolution of the thermal boundary layer. The primary focus is to highlight the spatial variability of potential-temperature profiles due to heterogeneous surface forcing in an urban environment during different flow conditions. Overall, the observations during the summer period reveal the presence of thermal internal boundary layers due to the interaction between the marine atmospheric boundary layer and the convective urban environment. The summer daytime potential-temperature profiles within the city indicate a superadiabatic layer is present near the surface beneath a mildly stable layer. Large spatial variability in the near-surface (0–300 m) potential temperature is detected, with the thermal profile in the lower atmosphere uniquely determined by the underlying surface forcing and the distance from the coast. The summer and winter average night-time potential-temperature profiles show that the atmosphere is still convective near the surface. The seasonal averages of mixing ratio show large variability in the vertical direction.     

Downscaling the non-stationary effect of climate forcing on local-scale dynamics: the importance of environmental filters

Large-scale climatic variability exerts a strong influence on local-scale environmental patterns and processes. However, disentangling the effects of global climate forcing from observed patterns in local processes requires robust understanding of the underlying patterns of temporal variability and consideration of the specific setting in which these processes take place. Here, we examine the influence of intermediate-scale environmental factors in modulating the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on long-term water level dynamics in natural lakes. Lakes are ideal systems to study these relationships because of their acute sensitivity to environmental change and their linkages with multi-scale processes through the hydrological cycle. Using a novel combination of analytical tools, we show that the coupling between the NAO and water level dynamics is markedly nonstationary (i.e., time-frequency variant) and strongly lake-specific, filtered through the particular weather and environmental settings of lakes and their catchments. We conclude that to fully understand the nonstationary interplay between climate and ecology, we need first to disentangle the intermediate links between climate and different embedded environmental factors related to the process of interest. This knowledge should enhance significantly our ability to produce adequate long-term water resource management strategies, to preserve biological diversity and to achieve sustainable development under a globally changing climate.     

The UV enigma of post-starburst galaxies

We have studied the panchromatic broad-band properties from the FUV to the MIR of a sample of 808 post-starburst galaxies. We find that in the optical and near-IR bands post-starburst galaxies (PSGs) form a remarkably uniform class of objects and that, on average, simple populations synthesis models (SSP) reproduce very well the SEDs of PSGs over a broad wavelength range, but not in the UV. We also find that, while the photometric variance in the optical and near-IR properties of the sample is small and comparable to the observational errors, both in the UV and the mid-IR the observed variance is much larger than the errors. We find a strong correlation between the UV fluxes and those in the mid-IR, indicating that the large variance in UV properties of PSGs could be related to a non-uniform distribution of dust covering the intermediate age populations. The disagreement between models and observations in the UV could be due to inadequate modelling; to the contribution of AGB and post-AGB stars; or to a non-uniform distribution of dust; possibly all three. Further progress in understanding this important class of galaxies, therefore, requires at the same time better modelling and better observations in the UV and mid-IR.     

Wind wave climate change: Impacts on the littoral processes at the Northern Buenos Aires Province Coast, Argentina

Several works reported wind-wave climate changes at Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. The aim of this work is to investigate the impact of these changes in the coastal processes of the region. This study is carried out by means of visual wave parameters gathered at the surf zone of Pinamar and by a conveniently implemented and validated numerical wave model (SWAN). Numerical results corresponding to a grid point located 30 km off Pinamar show a significant increase of wave heights from the S and SSE directions and in the frequency of occurrence of waves coming from the S, SSE and E. It is shown that these slight offshore appreciated trends would not have significant effects on the breaker heights observed at the surf zone at Pinamar. On the contrary, the slight positive trend observed offshore in the frequency of occurrence could be affecting the incidence of waves onshore, producing an increase in the number of cases of normal incidence at the surf zone and, consequently, a significant decrease in the alongshore wave energy flux assessed at Pinamar. This reduction in the alongshore wave energy flux could be responsible for some coastal changes detected in the region as, for instance, the remarkable shortening of Punta Rasa spit located 70 km northward Pinamar.     

Characterisation of the intra-annual rainfall and its evolution (1837–2010) in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula

Variability in precipitation affects annual total records and causes instability in rainfall distribution throughout the year. Our aim in this study was to develop a procedure, based on pluviometric centralisation and dispersion parameters, that is able to characterise rainfall distribution throughout a year of precipitation in a unique, condensed and precise manner. This enabled the evolution of intra-annual precipitation from 1837 to 2010 in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula to be determined. The obtained results showed irregular oscillations of the parameters during the selected period. Specifically, patterns of precipitation in recent decades revealed the following differentiating features: the displacement of the most intense rainy periods in autumn with a consequent decrease in precipitation in spring, and more erratic distribution throughout the year with an increase of the frequency of intra-annual dispersion peaks.     

GGR Biennial Critical Review: Analytical Developments Since 2012

Advances in the chemical, crystallographic and isotopic characterisation of geological and environmental materials can often be ascribed to technological improvements in analytical hardware or to innovative approaches to data acquisition and/or its interpretation. This biennial review addresses key laboratory methods that form much of the foundation for analytical geochemistry; again, this contribution is presented as a compendium of laboratory techniques. We highlight advances that have appeared since January 2012 and that are of particular significance for the chemical and isotopic characterisation of geomaterials. Prominent scientists from the selected analytical fields present publications they judge to be particular noteworthy, providing background information about the method and assessing where further opportunities might be anticipated. In addition to the well‐established technologies such as thermal ionisation mass spectrometry and plasma emission spectroscopy, this publication also presents new or rapidly growing methods such as electron backscattered diffraction analysis and atom probe tomography – a very sensitive method providing atomic scale information.