Modulation of near-inertial motions on the Mississippi-Alabama Shelf

Ocean Dynamics - In this study, we diagnose the time variability and vertical structure of the high- and low-frequency motions on the Mississippi-Alabama Shelf as observed with a bottom-mounted...     

Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change

The risks to human populations in coastal areas are changing due to climate and socio-economic changes, and these trends are predicted to accelerate during the twenty-first century. To understand these changing risks, and the resulting choices and pathways to successful management and adaptation, broad-scale integrated assessment is essential. Due to their complexity the two risks of flooding and erosion are usually managed independently, yet frequently they are interconnected by longshore exchange of sediments and the resulting broad scale morphological system behaviour. In order to generate new insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practises on coastal erosion and flood risk, we present an integrated assessment of 72 km of shoreline over the twenty-first century on the East Anglian coast of England which is a site of significant controversy about how to manage coastal flood and erosion risks over the twenty-first century. A coupled system of hydrodynamic, morphological, reliability and socio-economic models has been developed for the analysis, implemented under scenarios of coastal management, climate and socio-economic change. The study is unique in coastal management terms because of the large spatial scale and extended temporal scale over which the analysis is quantified. This study for the first time quantifies what has for some years been argued qualitatively: the role of sediments released from cliff erosion in protecting neighbouring low-lying land from flooding. The losses and benefits are expressed using the common currency of economic risk. The analysis demonstrates that over the twenty-first century, flood risk in the study area is expected to be an order of magnitude greater than erosion risk. Climate and socio-economic change and coastal management policy have a significant influence on flood risk. This study demonstrates that the choices concerning coastal management are profound, and there are clear tradeoffs between erosion and flood impacts.     

Wavelet Filtering of Sodar Reflectivity Signals

Summary A wavelet‐based technique is described for the processing of sodar signals. A two‐stage wavelet filtering process is used to emulate a matched‐filter receiver to optimize signal detectability. The process compresses the data required to produce accurate facsimile records by a factor of 256. Received October 21, 1998 Revised June 7, 1999     

Mapping the narrative positions of new political groups under the UNFCCC

Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2?°C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2?°C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2?°C target as the least unattractive course of action.     

Dissolved silicate dynamics of the Rhode River watershed and estuary

We continuously measured dissolved silicate concentrations and fluxes discharged from various Rhode River subwatersheds for a period of 14 yr from 1984 to 1998 and for 15 mo in 1971–1972. We also measured dissolved silicate concentrations along a transect from the head of the tide in Rhode River estuary to Chesapeake Bay. The average concentration of dissolved silicate discharged from the Rhode River watershed was 10.8 mg Si l^?1. There were consistent and significant differences in silicate concentrations discharged over time and space among subwatersheds. Mean annual silicate flux from the watershed was 26.6 kg Si ha^?1 and 93% of this occurred during the winter and spring seasons. There were large interannual variations in silicate flux, due primarily to differences in precipitation and water discharge, rather than silicate concentration. Land use had little or no effect on silicate flux from various subwatersheds. Silicate concentrations discharged from a subset of subwatersheds in 1995–1996 were 25% to 35% lower than in a period with similar precipitation in 1971–1972. Mean annual concentrations of silicate discharged from nine subwatersheds have been declining about 1.5% yr^?1 or by 0.21–0.26 mg Si l^?1 yr^?1 over the last 25 yr. Despite high average silicate fluxes from the watershed, at times the Rhode River estuary developed low dissolved silicate concentrations, which could have been limiting to the growth of diatoms. Examples were in the spring after a winter with low watershed discharge (as low as 0.019 mg Si l^?1 in 1995) and after protracted drought (as low as 0.041 mg Si l^?1 in 1993).     

The Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database: A New Classification Scheme and Statistics on Arctic Permafrost Coastlines

Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447?km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5?m? year^?1 with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.     

A paleotemperature record derived from dissolved noble gases in groundwater of the Aquia Aquifer (Maryland, USA)

Low ¹⁴C activities in groundwater of the confined part of the Aquia aquifer in southeastern Maryland suggest that most of this water infiltrated at least 30,000 years ago. However, radiocarbon contents of the dissolved inorganic carbon seem to be affected by isotopic exchange, possibly with secondary calcite deposits in the formation, leading to overestimated ¹⁴C ages. Whereas the geochemistry of the Aquia aquifer complicates the application of the widely used ¹⁴C dating method, the accumulation of radiogenic He seems to provide a viable alternative for establishing a chronology. The quasi-linear increase of He concentrations with flow distance observed in the Aquia aquifer can be explained entirely by accumulation of in situ produced radiogenic He. U and Th concentrations in Aquia sand were measured in order to determine the accumulation rate of ⁴He with sufficient confidence to establish a He time scale.Concentrations of dissolved atmospheric noble gases were used to derive mean annual ground temperatures at the time of infiltration. These noble gas temperatures (NGTs) clearly show the presence of water that infiltrated under much cooler conditions than at present. NGTs are correlated with chloride concentrations, corroborating the hypothesis that chloride variations in this aquifer constitute a climate signal. In contrast, the stable isotope ratios δ¹⁸0 and δD do not provide a clear record of past climatic changes in the Aquia aquifer and the correlation between NGTs and stable isotope ratios is weak. The NGT record suggests that mean annual temperatures in this midlatitude coastal site during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were (9.0 ± 0.6) °C colder than during the Holocene. This difference is slightly lower than estimates derived from pollen data for this region, but considerably larger than the rather uniform cooling of about 5°C indicated by noble gas studies in more southern locations of North America. The larger cooling is ascribed to the influence of the Laurentide ice sheet, which at its maximum extension came as close as 250 km to our study site.     

Effects of land-use change on nutrient discharges from the Patuxent River watershed

We developed an empirical model integrating nonpoint source (NPS) runoff, point sources (PS), and reservoir management to predict watershed discharges of water, sediment, organic carbon, silicate, nitrogen, and phosphorus to the Patuxent River in Maryland. We estimated NPS discharges with linear models fit to measurements of weekly flow and 10 material concentrations from 22 study watersheds. The independent variables were the proportions of cropland and developed land, physiographic province (Coastal Plain or Piedmont), and time (week). All but one of the NPS models explained between 62% and 83% of the variability among concentration or flow measurements. Geographic factors (land cover and physiographic province) accounted for the explained variability in largely dissolved material concentrations (nitrate [NO₃], silicate [Si], and total nitrogen [TN]), but the explained variability in flow and particulates (sediment and forms of phosphorus) was more strongly related to temporal variability or its interactions with land cover and province. Average concentrations of all materials increased with cropland proportion and also with developed land (except Si), but changes in cropland produced larger concentration shifts than equivalent changes in developed land proportion. Among land cover transitions, conversions between cropland and forest-grassland cause the greatest changes in material discharges, cropland and developed land conversions are intermediate, and developed land and forest-grassland conversions have the weakest effects. Changing land cover has stronger effects on NO₃ and TN in the Piedmont than in the coastal Plain, but for all other materials, the effects of land-use change are greater in the Coastal Plain. We predicted the changes in nutrient load to the estuary under several alternate land cover configurations, including a state planning scenario that extrapolates current patterns of population growth and land development to the year 2020. In that scenario, declines in NPS discharges from reducing cropland are balanced by NPS discharge increases from developing an area almost six times larger than the lost cropland. When PS discharges are included, there are net increases in total water, total phosphorus, and TN discharges.