Vent temperature trends at the Vulcano Fossa fumarole field: the role of permeability

Between 1994 and 2010, we completed 16 thermal surveys of Vulcano’s Fossa fumarole field (Aeolian Islands, Italy). In each survey, between 400 and 1,200 vent temperatures were collected using a thermal infrared thermometer from distances of ～1?m. The results show a general decrease in average vent temperature during 1994–2003, with the average for the entire field falling from ～220°C in 1994 to ～150°C by 2003. However, between 2004 and 2010, we witnessed heating, with the average increasing to ～190°C by 2010. Alongside these annual-scale field-wide trends, we record a spatial re-organisation of the fumarole field, characterised by shut down of vent zones towards the crater floor, matched by rejuvenation of zones located towards the crater rim. Heating may be expected to be associated with deflation because increased amounts of vaporisation will remove volume from the hydrothermal system Gambino and Guglielmino (J Geophys Res 113:B07402, 2008). However, over the 2004–2010 heating period, no ground deformation was observed. Instead, the number of seismic events increased from a typical rate of 37 events per month during 1994–2000 to 195 events per month during 2004–2010. As part of this increase, we noticed a much greater number of high-frequency events associated with rock fracturing. We thus suggest that the heating event of 2004–2010 was the result of changed permeability conditions, rather than change in the heat supply from the deeper magmatic source. Within this scenario, cooling causes shut down of lower sectors and re-establishment of pathways located towards the crater rim, causing fracturing, increased seismicity and heat flow in these regions. This is consistent with the zone of rejuvenation (which lies towards and at the rim) being the most favourable location for fracturing given the stress field of the Fossa cone Sch?pa et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 203:133–145, 2011); it is also the most established zone, having been active at least since the early twentieth century. Our data show the value of deploying multi-disciplinary geophysical campaigns at degassing (fumarolic) hydrothermal systems. This allows more complete and constrained understanding of the true heat loss dynamics of the system. In the case study presented here, it allows us to distinguish true heating from apparent heating phases. While the former are triggered from the bottom-up, i.e. they are driven by increases in heat supply from the magmatic source, the latter are triggered from the top-down, i.e. by changing permeability conditions in the uppermost portion of the system to allow more efficient heat flow over zones predisposed to fracturing.     

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Relations between hydrology and velocity of a continuously moving landslide—evidence of pore-pressure feedback regulating landslide motion?

We measured displacement, pore-water pressure, and climatic conditions for 3 years at the continuously moving Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA. The landslide accelerated when pore-water pressure increased within the landslide body, but this occurred as pore-water pressure decreased along the landslide margin. The decrease probably occurred in response to shear-induced soil dilation at rates greater than pore-pressure diffusion and likely increased resistance to shear displacement and resulted in landslide deceleration. This dilative strengthening has been experimentally observed and explained theoretically, but not previously identified during field studies. Although landslide displacement should have exceeded that required to achieve critical-state density of shear boundaries, observed relocation of these boundaries indicates that shearing is episodic at fixed locations, so it permits renewed dilative strengthening when “fresh” soil is sheared. Thus, dilatant strengthening may be a considerable mechanism controlling landslide velocity, even for landslides that have continuously moved great distances.     

Coherence of river and ocean conditions along the US West Coast during storms

The majority of water and sediment discharge from the small, mountainous watersheds of the US West Coast occurs during and immediately following winter storms. The physical conditions (waves, currents, and winds) within and acting upon the proximal coastal ocean during these winter storms strongly influence dispersal patterns. We examined this river–ocean temporal coherence for four coastal river–shelf systems of the US West Coast (Umpqua, Eel, Salinas, and Santa Clara) to evaluate whether specific ocean conditions occur during floods that may influence coastal dispersal of sediment. Eleven years of corresponding river discharge, wind, and wave data were obtained for each river–shelf system from USGS and NOAA historical records, and each record was evaluated for seasonal and event-based patterns. Because near-bed shear stresses due to waves influence sediment resuspension and transport, we used spectral wave data to compute and evaluate wave-generated bottom-orbital velocities. The highest values of wave energy and discharge for all four systems were consistently observed between October 15 and March 15, and there were strong latitudinal patterns observed in these data with lower discharge and wave energies in the southernmost systems. During floods we observed patterns of river–ocean coherence that differed from the overall seasonal patterns. For example, downwelling winds generally prevailed during floods in the northern two systems (Umpqua and Eel), whereas winds in the southern systems (Salinas and Santa Clara) were generally downwelling before peak discharge and upwelling after peak discharge. Winds not associated with floods were generally upwelling on all four river–shelf systems. Although there are seasonal variations in river–ocean coherence, waves generally led floods in the three northern systems, while they lagged floods in the Santa Clara. Combined, these observations suggest that there are consistent river–ocean coherence patterns along the US West Coast during winter storms and that these patterns vary substantially with latitude. These results should assist with future evaluations of flood plume formation and sediment fate along this coast.     

The effects of vigorous mixing in a convective model of zonal flow on the ice giants

Previous studies have used models of three-dimensional (3D) Boussinesq convection in a rotating spherical shell to explain the zonal flows on the gas giants, Jupiter and Saturn. In this paper we demonstrate that this approach can also generate flow patterns similar to those observed on the ice giants, Uranus and Neptune. The equatorial jets of Uranus and Neptune are often assumed to result from baroclinic cloud layer processes and have been simulated with shallow layer models. Here we show that vigorous, 3D convection in a spherical shell can produce the retrograde (westward) equatorial flows that occur on the ice giants as well as the prograde (eastward) equatorial flows of the gas giants. In our models, the direction of the equatorial jet depends on the ratio of buoyancy to Coriolis forces in the system. In cases where Coriolis forces dominate buoyancy, cylindrical Reynolds stresses drive prograde equatorial jets. However, as buoyancy forces approach and exceed Coriolis forces, the cylindrical nature of the flow is lost and 3D mixing homogenizes the fluid's angular momentum; the equatorial jet reverses direction, while strong prograde jets form in the polar regions. Although the results suggest that conditions involving strong atmospheric mixing are responsible for generating the zonal flows on the ice giants, our present models require roughly 100 and 10 times the internal heat fluxes observed on Uranus and Neptune, respectively.     

The effect of drawdown on suspended solids and phosphorus export from Columbia Lake,Waterloo, Canada

This study examines the effect of drawdown on the timing and magnitude of suspended solids and associated phosphorus export from a 12 ha reservoir located in an urbanized watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. Water level in Columbia Lake was lowered by 1·15 m over a 2‐week period in November 2001. The total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranged from 63 to 486 µg L^?1 in Columbia Lake and 71 to 373 µg L^?1 at its outflow. All samples exceeded the Provincial Water Quality Objective of 30 µg TP L^?1. Outflow concentrations of suspended solids and TP increased significantly with decreasing lake level and were attributed to the resuspension of cohesive bottom sediments that occurred at a critical threshold lake level (0·65 m below summer level). Suspended solids at the outflow consisted of flocculated cohesive materials with a median diameter (D₅₀) of c. 5 µm. Particulate organic carbon accounted for 8·5% of the suspended solids export by mass. A total mass of 18·5 t of suspended solids and 62·6 kg TP was exported from Columbia Lake, which represents a significant pulse of sediment‐associated P to downstream environments each autumn during drawdown. The downstream impacts of this release can be minimized if the water level in Columbia Lake is lowered no more than 0·5 m below summer levels. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inference of Solar Magnetic Field Parameters from Data with Limited Wavelength Sampling

We investigate the diagnostic potential of polarimetric measurements with filtergraph instruments. Numerical simulations are used to explore the possibility of inferring the magnetic field vector, its filling factor, and the thermodynamics of model atmospheres when only a few wavelength measurements are available. These simulations assume the magnetic Sun to be represented by Milne–Eddington atmospheres. The results indicate that two wavelength measurements are insufficient to reliably determine the magnetic parameters, regardless of whether magnetograph techniques or least-squares fitting inversions are used. However, as few as four measurements analyzed with the inversion technique provide enough information to retrieve the intrinsic magnetic field with an accuracy better than 10% in most cases.