Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

The effects of frequency-dependent quasar variability on the celestial reference frame

We examine the relationship between source position stability and astrophysical properties of radio-loud quasars making up the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2). Understanding this relationship is important for improving quasar selection and analysis strategies, and therefore reference frame stability. We construct flux density time series, known as light curves, for 95 of the most frequently observed ICRF2 quasars at both the 2.3 and 8.4 GHz geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observing bands. Because the appearance of new quasar components corresponds to an increase in quasar flux density, these light curves alert us about potential changes in source structure before they appear in VLBI images. We test how source position stability depends on three astrophysical parameters: (1) flux density variability at X band; (2) time lag between flares in S and X bands; (3) spectral index root-mean-square (rms), defined as the variability in the ratio between S and X band flux densities. We find that the time lag between S and X band light curves provides a good indicator of position stability: sources with time lags $<$ 0.06 years are significantly more stable ( $>$ 20 % improvement in weighted rms) than sources with larger time lags. A similar improvement is obtained by observing sources with low $(<$ 0.12) spectral index variability. On the other hand, there is no strong dependence of source position stability on flux density variability in a single frequency band. These findings can be understood by interpreting the time lag between S and X band light curves as a measure of the size of the source structure. Monitoring of source flux density at multiple frequencies therefore appears to provide a useful probe of quasar structure on scales important to geodesy. The observed astrometric position of the brightest quasar component (the core) is known to depend on observing frequency. We show how multi-frequency flux density monitoring may allow the dependence on frequency of the relative core positions along the jet to be elucidated. Knowledge of the position–frequency relation has important implications for current and future geodetic VLBI programs, as well as the alignment between the radio and optical celestial reference frames.     

Enrichment pattern of leachable trace metals in roadside soils of Miri City,Eastern Malaysia

This article presents the results on distribution and enrichment pattern of acid-leachable trace metals (ALTMs) from roadside soil of Miri city, Sarawak, East Malaysia. The city is one of the fastest developing in the Malaysian region with huge petroleum resources. ALTMs Fe, Mn, Cr, Cu, Ni, Co, Pb, Zn and Cd along with organic carbon and carbonates (CaCO₃) were analyzed in 37 soil sediments collected from roadside. The enrichment of ALTMs [especially Cu (0.4–13.1 μg g^?1), Zn (9.3–70.7 μg g^?1), Pb (13.8–99.1 μg g^?1)] in the roadside soils indicate that these metals are mainly derived from sources related to traffic exhausts, forest fires and oil refineries. The comparative study and enrichment pattern of elements indicates that Mn, Cu, Zn and Pb are enriched multi-fold than the unpolluted soil and Ni, Pb, Cd in some samples compared to Sediment Quality Guidelines like Lowest Effect Level (LEL) and Effects Range Low (ERL) in the region which is mainly due to the recent industrial developments in the region.     

Short-term and seasonal variation in metabolic balance in Liverpool Bay

Regions of freshwater influence (ROFIs) are dynamic areas within the coastal seas that experience cycles of stability driven by density gradients and the spring-neap tidal cycle. As a result, pulses of biological production may occur on a more frequent timescale than the classic seasonal cycle. Net community production (NCP) rates and chlorophyll a concentration are presented from a site within the ROFI of Liverpool Bay and compared to similar measurements made at a site outside the ROFI during 2009. The influence of water column stability on biological production in the ROFI was also investigated using high-frequency observations from a Cefas Smartbuoy. Both sites were autotrophic from spring to autumn before becoming heterotrophic over winter. NCP at the inshore site was estimated to range from 30.8 to 50.4 gC m⁻² year⁻¹. A linear relationship detected between chlorophyll a and NCP from both sites was used to estimate metabolic balance over 1 year at the ROFI site using high-resolution chlorophyll a concentrations from the Smartbuoy but was found to poorly replicate NCP rates compared to those derived from dissolved oxygen fluxes. There was no clear biological response to periods of stratification within the ROFI, and it is proposed that changes in light attenuation in the Liverpool Bay ROFI, driven not only by stratification but also by fluctuations in riverine sediment load, most likely play an important role in controlling phytoplankton growth in this region.     

Biogenic carbon flows through the planktonic food web of the Amundsen Gulf (Arctic Ocean): A synthesis of field measurements and inverse modeling analyses

Major pathways of biogenic carbon (C) flow are resolved for the planktonic food web of the flaw lead polynya system of the Amundsen Gulf (southeast Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean) in spring-summer 2008. This period was relevant to study the effect of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems as it was characterized by unusually low ice cover and warm sea surface temperature. Our synthesis relied on a mass balance estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of 52.5 ± 12.5 g C m⁻² calculated using the drawdown of nitrate and dissolved inorganic C, and a seasonal f-ratio of 0.64. Based on chlorophyll a biomass, we estimated that GPP was dominated by phytoplankton (93.6%) over ice algae (6.4%) and by large cells (>5 μm, 67.6%) over small cells (<5 μm, 32.4%). Ancillary in situ data on bacterial production, zooplankton biomass and respiration, herbivory, bacterivory, vertical particle fluxes, pools of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC), net community production (NCP), as well as selected variables from the literature were used to evaluate the fate of size-fractionated GPP in the ecosystem. The structure and functioning of the planktonic food web was elucidated through inverse analysis using the mean GPP and the 95% confidence limits of every other field measurement as lower and upper constraints. The model computed a net primary production of 49.2 g C m⁻², which was directly channeled toward dominant calanoid copepods (i.e. Calanus hyperboreus 20%, Calanus glacialis 10%, and Metridia longa 10%), other mesozooplankton (12%), microzooplankton (14%), detrital POC (18%), and DOC (16%). Bacteria required 29.9 g C m⁻², a demand met entirely by the DOC derived from local biological activities. The ultimate C outflow comprised respiration fluxes (82% of the initial GPP), a small sedimentation (3%), and a modest residual C flow (15%) resulting from NCP, dilution and accumulation. The sinking C flux at the model limit depth (395 m) supplied 60% of the estimated benthic C demand (2.8 g C m⁻²), suggesting that the benthos relied partly on other C sources within the bottom boundary layer to fuel its activity. In summary, our results illustrate that the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice promotes the growth of pelagic communities in the Amundsen Gulf, which benefited from a ∼80% increase in GPP in spring-summer 2008 when compared to 2004 – a year of average ice conditions and relatively low GPP. However, 53% of the secondary production was generated within the microbial food web, the net ecological efficiency of zooplankton populations was not particularly high (13.4%), and the quantity of biogenic C available for trophic export remained low (6.6 g C m⁻²). Hence it is unlikely that the increase in lower food web productivity, such as the one observed in our study, could support new harvestable fishery resources in the offshore Beaufort Sea domain.     

Comparative dissolution kinetics of biogenic and chemogenic uraninite under oxidizing conditions in the presence of carbonate

The long-term stability of biogenic uraninite with respect to oxidative dissolution is pivotal to the success of in situ bioreduction strategies for the subsurface remediation of uranium legacies. Batch and flow-through dissolution experiments were conducted along with spectroscopic analyses to compare biogenic uraninite nanoparticles obtained from Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 and chemogenic UO_2.00 with respect to their equilibrium solubility, dissolution mechanisms, and dissolution kinetics in water of varied oxygen and carbonate concentrations. Both materials exhibited a similar intrinsic solubility of ∼10⁻⁸ M under reducing conditions. The two materials had comparable dissolution rates under anoxic as well as oxidizing conditions, consistent with structural bulk homology of biogenic and stoichiometric uraninite. Carbonate reversibly promoted uraninite dissolution under both moderately oxidizing and reducing conditions, and the biogenic material yielded higher surface area-normalized dissolution rates than the chemogenic. This difference is in accordance with the higher proportion of U(V) detected on the biogenic uraninite surface by means of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Reasonable sources of a stable U(V)-bearing intermediate phase are discussed. The observed increase of the dissolution rates can be explained by carbonate complexation of U(V) facilitating the detachment of U(V) from the uraninite surface. The fraction of surface-associated U(VI) increased with dissolved oxygen concentration. Simultaneously, X-ray absorption spectra showed conversion of the bulk from UO_2.0 to UO_2+x. In equilibrium with air, combined spectroscopic results support the formation of a near-surface layer of approximate composition UO_2.25 (U₄O₉) coated by an outer layer of U(VI). This result is in accordance with flow-through dissolution experiments that indicate control of the dissolution rate of surface-oxidized uraninite by the solubility of metaschoepite under the tested conditions. Although U(V) has been observed in electrochemical studies on the dissolution of spent nuclear fuel, this is the first investigation that demonstrates the formation of a stable U(V) intermediate phase on the surface of submicron-sized uraninite particles suspended in aqueous solutions.     

Growing season evapotranspiration in boreal fens in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region: Variability and environmental controls

Current efforts to assess changes to the wetland hydrology caused by growing anthropogenic pressures in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) require well-founded spatial and temporal estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET), which is the dominant component of the water budget in this region. This study assessed growing season (May–September) and peak growing season (July) ET variability at a treed moderate-rich fen and treed poor fen (in 2013–2018), open poor fen (in 2011–2014), and saline fen (in 2015–2018) using eddy covariance technique and a set of complementary environmental data. Seasonal fluctuations in ET were positively related to net radiation, air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and followed trends typical for the Boreal Plains (BP) and AOSR with highest rates in June–July. However, no strong effect of water table position on ET was found. Strong surface control on ET is evident from lower ET values than potential evapotranspiration (PET); the lowest ET/PET was observed at saline fen, followed by open fen, moderately treed fen, and heavily treed fen, suggesting a strong influence of vegetation on water loss. In most years PET exceeded precipitation (P), and positive relations between P/PET and ET were observed with the highest July ET rates occurring under P/PET ~1. However, during months with P/PET > 1, increased P/PET was associated with decreased July ET. With respect to 30-year mean values of air temperature and P in the area, both dry and wet, cool and warm growing seasons (GS) were observed. No clear trends between ET values and GS wetness/coldness were found, but all wet GS were characterized by peak growing seasons with high daily ET variability.     

Organohalogen contaminants and trace metals in North-East Atlantic porbeagle shark (Lamna nasus)

The North-East Atlantic porbeagle (Lamna nasus) population has declined dramatically over the last few decades and is currently classified as ‘Critically Endangered’. As long-lived, apex predators, they may be vulnerable to bioaccumulation of contaminants. In this study organohalogen compounds and trace elements were analysed in 12 specimens caught as incidental bycatch in commercial gillnet fisheries in the Celtic Sea in 2011. Levels of organohalogen contaminants were low or undetectable (summed CB and BDE concentrations 0.04–0.85 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). A notably high Cd concentration (7.2 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight) was observed in one mature male, whereas the range observed in the other samples was much lower (0.04–0.26 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). Hg and Pb concentrations were detected only in single animals, at 0.34 and 0.08 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight, respectively. These contaminant levels were low in comparison to other published studies for shark species.     

Holocene monsoon climate documented by oxygen and carbon isotopes from lake sediments and peat bogs in China: a review and synthesis

There has been much recent debate about Holocene climate variation in the monsoon region of China, especially the temporal pattern of variations in precipitation, the time-transgressive nature of the Holocene precipitation maximum, and the extent to which variations in regions influenced by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) have been synchronous. We summarize and compare carbonate oxygen-isotope records (δ¹⁸O_carb) from ten lakes within the present-day ISM region. We discuss their paleoclimate significance considering the present-day moisture source, isotopic composition of precipitation and the hydrological setting. The δ¹⁸O_carb records are controlled mainly by the isotopic composition of lake water, which in turn is a function of regional Precipitation/Evaporation (P/E) balance and the proportion of precipitation that is monsoon-derived. We normalized the δ¹⁸O_carb data and used these records to generate an integrated moisture index. This index, along with oxygen-isotope records from speleothems and carbon-isotope records (δ¹³C_org) from peats within the monsoon region, suggests that Holocene climate was broadly synchronous across the monsoon region and, within the limits of accuracy of the existing age models, provides no strong evidence for previously-proposed anti-phasing of the ISM and the EASM. Stable-isotope records from lake sediments and peat bogs have excellent potential for providing high-quality paleoclimate data for monsoon Asia, and complement high-resolution speleothem sequences, which are only found in certain localities.     

Statistical properties of optical refractive index fluctuations in the marine boundary layer

The optical refractive index fluctuation has been determined from measurements of turbulent temperature and humidity fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer over the ocean. Probability density, spectral density and even- and odd-order structure functions of the refractive index fluctuation are presented. The spectral density exhibits a significant -5/3 inertial subrange as a result of the existence of a -5/3 subrange in the spectra of temperature and humidity fluctuations and in the temperature-humidity co-spectrum. The behaviour in the inertial subrange of fourth- and sixth-order structure functions of the refractive index is in reasonable agreement with that predicted by the analysis of Antonia and Van Atta (1975, 1978). The third-order structure functions of the refractive index exhibit an approximately linear dependence on separation in the inertial subrange, in agreement with a ramp model for the large coherent structure of the motion.