Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Sensitivity of transient climate change to tidal mixing: Southern Ocean heat uptake in climate change experiments performed with ECHAM5/MPIOM

We investigate the sensitivity of the transient climate change to a tidal mixing scheme. The scheme parameterizes diapycnal diffusivity depending on the location of energy dissipation over rough topography, whereas the standard configuration uses horizontally constant diffusivity. We perform ensemble climate change experiments with two setups of MPIOM/ECHAM5, one setup with the tidal mixing scheme and the second setup with the standard configuration. Analysis of the responses of the transient climate change to CO₂ increase reveals that the implementation of tidal mixing leads to a significant reduction of the transient surface warming by 9 %. The weaker surface warming in the tidal run is localized particularly over the Weddell Sea, likely caused by a stronger ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. The analysis of the ocean heat budget reveals that the ocean heat uptake in both experiments is caused by changes in convection and advection. In the upper ocean, heat uptake is caused by reduced convection and enhancement of the Deacon Cell, which appears also in isopycnal coordinates. In the deeper ocean, heat uptake is caused by reduction of convective cooling associated with the circulation polewards of 65°S. Tidal mixing leads to stronger heat uptake in the Southern Ocean by causing stronger changes in advection, namely a stronger increase in the Deacon Cell and a stronger reduction in advective cooling by the circulation polewards of 65°S. Counter-intuitively, the relation between tidal mixing and greater heat storage in the deep ocean is an indirect one, through the influence of tidal mixing on the circulation.     

Anthropogenic influence of trace metals in sediments of the Al-Qilt catchment,West Bank,Palestine: 1. Contamination factor and bonding forms

Al-Qilt catchment, located east of both the Ramallah and Jerusalem districts is strongly influenced by waste waters discharged from Israeli settlements and Palestinian urban centers. In this research, our aim was to verify the chemical status of the surface sediments from the Al-Qilt catchment during 2008/2009. For this purpose, 36 surface sediment samples were collected and analyzed with ICP/MS within the fraction of below 63 μm. The extent of contamination of trace metals from Al-Qilt sediments sites were measured by evaluating the contamination factors (CF) from digestion by aqua regia and additionally by sequential extraction steps using the BCR-method. On the basis of the calculated CF, sediments appear particularly contaminated with Zn, Cu, Ag, Sn, Cd, Hg, Bi, and B. Three regions, Wadi Sweanit, Ras Al-Qilt, and Qalandiah have been identified as critical points of contamination. Trace metal inputs to the Al-Qilt catchment need to be kept under strict control in the future since Ras Al-Qilt is considered as one of the important springs in the area and is used for domestic purposes. Moreover, it will be susceptible to pollution if no action is taken to decrease the pollution at the upstream of Al-Qilt.     

Boundary layer ion composition at Jupiter during the inbound pass of the Ulysses flyby

During the inbound segment of the Ulysses flyby of Jupiter, there were multiple incursions into the dawnside low-latitude boundary layer, as identified by Bame et al. (Science257, 1539–1542, 1992) using plasma electron data. In the present study, ion composition and spectral measurements provide independent collaborative evidence for the existence of distinct boundary layer regions. Measurements are taken in the energy-per-charge range of 0.6–60 keV/e and involve mass as well as mass-per-charge identification by the Ulysses/SWICS experiment. Ion species of Jovian magnetospheric origin (including O⁺, O²⁺, S²⁺, S³⁺) and sheath origin (including He²⁺ and high charge state CNO) have been directly identified for the first time in the Jovian magnetospheric boundary layer. Protons of probably mixed origin and He⁺ of possibly sheath (ultimately interstellar pickup) origin were also observed in the boundary layer. Sheath-like ions are observed throughout the boundary layer; however, the Jovian ions are depleted or absent for portions of two boundary layer cases studied. Ions of solar wind origin are observed within the outer magnetosphere. and ions of magnetospheric origin are found within the sheath, indicating that transport across the magnetopause boundary can work both ways, at least under some conditions. Although their source cannot be uniquely identified, the proton energy spectrum in the boundary layer suggests a sheath origin for the lower energy protons.     

Zircon geochronology and geochemistry to constrain the youngest eruption events and magma evolution of the Mid-Miocene ignimbrite flare-up in the Pannonian Basin,eastern central Europe

A silicic ignimbrite flare-up episode occurred in the Pannonian Basin during the Miocene, coeval with the syn-extensional period in the region. It produced important correlation horizons in the regional stratigraphy; however, they lacked precise and accurate geochronology. Here, we used U–Pb (LA-ICP-MS and ID-TIMS) and (U–Th)/He dating of zircons to determine the eruption ages of the youngest stage of this volcanic activity and constrain the longevity of the magma storage in crustal reservoirs. Reliability of the U–Pb data is supported by (U–Th)/He zircon dating and magnetostratigraphic constraints. We distinguish four eruptive phases from 15.9 ± 0.3 to 14.1 ± 0.3 Ma, each of which possibly includes multiple eruptive events. Among these, at least two large volume eruptions (>10 km³) occurred at 14.8 ± 0.3 Ma (Demjén ignimbrite) and 14.1 ± 0.3 Ma (Harsány ignimbrite). The in situ U–Pb zircon dating shows wide age ranges (up to 700 kyr) in most of the crystal-poor pyroclastic units, containing few to no xenocrysts, which implies efficient recycling of antecrysts. We propose that long-lived silicic magma reservoirs, mostly kept as high-crystallinity mushes, have existed in the Pannonian Basin during the 16–14 Ma period. Small but significant differences in zircon, bulk rock and glass shard composition among units suggest the presence of spatially separated reservoirs, sometimes existing contemporaneously. Our results also better constrain the time frame of the main tectonic events that occurred in the Northern Pannonian Basin: We refined the upper temporal boundary (15 Ma) of the youngest counterclockwise block rotation and the beginning of a new deformation phase, which structurally characterized the onset of the youngest volcanic and sedimentary phase.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Star Formation in Violent and Normal Evolutionary Phases

Mergers of massive gas-rich galaxies trigger violent starbursts that - over timescales of > 100 Myr and regions > 10 kpc - form massive and compact star clusters comparable in mass and radii to Galactic globular clusters. The star formation efficiency is higher by 1–2 orders of magnitude in these bursts than in undisturbed spirals, irregulars or even BCDs. We ask the question if star formation in these extreme regimes is just a scaled-up version of the normal star formation mode of if the formation of globular clusters reveals fundamentally different conditions. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A conceptually based stochastic point process model for daily stream‐flow generation

Based on the stochastic and phenomenological aspects of hydrological processes, a conceptually based stochastic point process (SPP) model for daily stream‐flow generation is proposed in this paper. In which, storms are defined by a stochastic point process with marked values. All the random variables defining the process are assumed to be mutually independent, which constitutes a compound Poisson point process. The direct surface runoff is regarded as occurring from storage in a cascade of surface linear reservoirs and is responsible for the short‐term variation of the daily stream flows. The baseflow component is considered as coming from subsurface/groundwater storage and is responsible for the long‐term persistence of the storm time‐series. This type of model is proposed as a more realistic model of daily stream flow than models based on pure stochastic processes. Studies on the instantaneous unit hydrograph and the mechanism of baseflow could thereby provide some parameters for this model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

I S L A An Astronomical World Space Observatory for The First Century of the 3 rd Millenium

ISLA will be an astronomical observatory, operating at the upper limit of our planet Earth atmosphere, offering space like observing conditions in most aspects. ISLA can be maintained easily, modified easily if necessary, always kept at the state of the art and operated for very extended periods without polluting the stratosphere. ISLA is ideally suited to become the first world space observatory as the observing conditions are very much space-like – diffraction limited angular resolution, very low ambient temperature, remote control – however ISLA is easily accessible, telescopes and instruments can be continuously improved and ISLA's costs corresponds only to those of ground-based modern astronomical installations like the ESO-VLT-, KECK- and GEMINI-observatories. The cost of observing and experimenting on ISLA will be orders of magnitudes lower than those of building and operating any space telescope, allowing the astronomers of developing nations to participate in the ISLA observatory within their limited financial possibilities as competent and full partners. ISLA's 4-m and 2-m telescopes will operate diffraction limited from 0.3 μm in the optical, over the infrared, far-infrared to the sub-mm spectral range. ISLA's individual telescopes will permit imaging with 20 milli-arcsec spatial resolution in the optical, 5 times better than the Hubble Space Telescope. ISLA's telescopes can be combined to form an interferometer with a maximum baseline of 250 m with nearly complete coverage of the u,v plane. Interferometric resolution will be of the order of 20 micro-arcsec for the optical. ISLA will thus offer spatial resolution comparable or better than the intercontinental VLBI radio interferometers. ISLA's telescope efficiency will be many orders of magnitude better than comparable ground-based telescopes. The light collecting power of ISLA's interferometric telescopes will be orders of magnitudes greater than the future space interferometers under discussion. ISLA, being an aviation project and not a space project, can be realised in the typical time scale for the development of aviation: about 5 years. ISLA's cost for the whole observatory, including its movable ground station etc. will be of the order of a typical medium size ESA space mission. ISLA's lifetime will be in excess of many decades, as it can easily be maintained, modernised, repaired and improved. ISLA will become the origin of a new astronomical international organisation with worldwide participation. ISLA's telescopes will be of the greatest importance to all astronomical fields, as it will permit to study much fainter, much more distant objects with microscopic spatial resolution in wavelength regions inaccessible from ground. ISLA's many telescopes permit easily simultaneous observations at many wavelengths for rapidly varying objects, from continuously monitoring the surfaces of the planets in our solar system, surfaces of close-by stars, nuclei of galaxies to QSO's. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.